A Comprehensive Coronavirus Pandemic Timeline BY Edward Dietrich

This is a comprehensive coronavirus pandemic timeline #CoronavirusTimeline that synthesizes information from major news outlets, medical journals, research institutes, U.S. government websites, databases, documents and public records. Most of the entries are direct quotes from  the cited sources, but to increase readability by eliminating multiple quotes within quotes and to reduce the number of characters, the quotation marks have been omitted. After analyzing this mountain of information over a period of months, there are 28 entries in the timeline culled from information scattered in various articles, emails, and investigations by major news organizations that explain the actions and inactions that most influenced the course of the pandemic in the United States. The 28 entries can be broadly grouped into the following categories:

• Prescient articles by Ed Yong @edyong209 in The Atlantic and Jeremy Konyndyk, @JeremyKonyndyk in Politico that predicted how President Trump would handle a pandemic that were written long before the emergence of Covid-19 (entries 1 and 2);
• The disastrous appointment of Dr. Robert Redfield as CDC director (entries 3 and 4);
• The dismantling of the NSC’s global health security team and the removal of Admiral Timothy Ziemer (entry 5);
• Reporting by Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner, Ken Dilanian @KenDilanianNBC and Courtney Kube @ckubeNBC at NBC News that Trump doesn’t regularly read the daily intelligence summary prepared for him and participates in relatively few in-person briefings (entry 6);
• Reporting by Josh Margolin @JoshMargolin and James Gordon Meek @meekwire of ABC News that U.S. intelligence agencies warned in late November of a “cataclysmic” and “out-of-control” disease in Wuhan, China based on wire intercepts, computer intercepts, and satellite images (entry 7);
• Reporting by Helen Branswell, an accomplished health journalist on the staff of STAT, who posted the first article in the American media about a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan on January 4 and warned of a possible pandemic on January 27 (entries 8 and 11);
• The whistleblower complaint filed by Dr. Bright, one of the nation’s leading experts in pandemic preparedness and response, exposing the incompetence and lack of urgency at the highest levels of HHS and the CDC when an aggressive response to the coronavirus would have mattered most (entry 10);
• Comprehensive research studies demonstrated that airport screenings and travel restrictions would not contain the spread of the coronavirus, yet the Trump Administration touted the screenings and travel restrictions as its most effective response (entries 9, 13-15);
• After years of budget cuts, the failure of the CDC’s coronavirus test caused by cross-contamination doomed the effort to contain the spread of the virus (entries 16-17);
• On February 11, a pre-print of a study entitled The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated was published in MedRxiv, by researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The study estimated that the number of infected individuals during the early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value was likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. Results of the study showed that even if only 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus. The study should have triggered a “whole of government” response by the United States. It didn’t (entry 19);
• The “Red Dawn” emails by Dr. Eva K. Lee, a researcher at Georgia Tech and Dr. Carter E. Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA sent to an email chain including senior officials at HHS and the CDC warning that schools and businesses must be closed and other Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) must be implemented within one week of the first death in a city. Based upon, among other things, modeling and a statistical analysis of the outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which provided a treasure trove of data, the researchers explained in February that asymptomatic people were “carrying the virus everywhere,” Covid-19 is “over 10-30 times more deadly than seasonal flu,” “They were blind to the extent of disease and the extent of on-going transmission,” and the United States “should have pulled all the triggers for NPls [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions g. lockdowns] by now [March 1]. . . More than 1 death per million population is probably too late. . . be ready to pull the trigger no later than 2 weeks of the first critically ill patient.” The Red Dawn emails were uncovered by a New York Times Investigation, He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT, David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes; (entries 12, 18, 20, 22-26);
• President Trump’s reaction to Dr. Messonnier’s comments that an outbreak is inevitableand may lead to severe disruption to everyday life delayed implementation of social distancing guidelines and other NPIs [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions] by at least two crucial weeks (entry 21);
• Trump’s claims that the flu is more deadly than Covid-19 is debunked by Scientific American Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges by Jeremy Samuel Faust and The Washington Post There’s a more accurate way to compare coronavirus deaths to the flu by Christopher Ingraham @_cingraham (entry 27);
• Trump’s claim that the number of deaths from Covid-19 is overstated is debunked by a paper titled Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, published in JAMA by Yale researchers which concluded that official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states (entry 28).

 

Here are the 28 most important timeline entries that help explain the actions and inactions that most influenced the course of the pandemic in the United States, followed by the full timeline:

 

1. DEC 20, 2016: The Atlantic publishes a prescient article titled How a Pandemic Might Play Out Under Trump by Ed Yong @edyong209. As Donald Trump prepares to become America’s 45th President in 2017, the question isn’t whetherhe’ll face a deadly outbreak during his presidency, but when? And more importantly, how will he cope? Outbreaks of disease are among the ultimate tests for any leader who wants to play on the global stage. They demand diplomacy, decisiveness, leadership, humility, and expertise—and they quickly unearth any lack of the same. For now, we can only speculate, using the president-elect’s own words and actions to predict how he might fare in an outbreak. Accurate public communication is vital. During the Ebola outbreak, misinformation circulated more widely than the virus itself. They resembled the pernicious and long-debunked claim that vaccines cause autism, which has led to a resurgence in mumps, measles, and other infectious diseases, and which Trump  has himself promoted. If anything, this problem is likely to get worse, given America’s continuing struggle to deal with “fake news.” Inaccurate information can be easily seeded by foreign parties, and given weight and prominence by online algorithms. It’s arguable whether such misinformation made a difference between victory or defeat in the election, but inarguable that it could mean life or death in an outbreak. The president-elect is hardly immune. Before, during, and since the election, Trump has had a strained relationship with facts, having repeatedly and reflexively lied about matters both large and small. He has reportedly failed to seek advice from the State Department before calling foreign leaders. He is avoiding most of his daily intelligence briefings, despite his lack of prior military or political experience—“I’m, like, a smart person,” he recently said.  These actions portray an incoming administration with a casual disregard for evidence, an unwillingness to tap into the expertise around them, and a reckless self-confidence. They suggest that, in an outbreak, Trump is more likely to heed his own counsel than that of the Centers of Disease Control (CDC) and other relevant experts. And he is likely to project that counsel to over 17 million followers. Trump’s Ebola tweets also revealed how he might deal with an outbreak as President. He repeatedly called for the U.S. to stop all flights from Ebola-infected countries, even though no such direct flights existed, and even though flight bans don’t work. Several countries enacted such bans during the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the swine flu pandemic of 2009, but to no avail. It’s impossible to fully seal a country.

 

2. MARCH 1, 2017: Jeremy Konyndyk, @JeremyKonyndyk, former director of USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, wrote an article in Politico @Politico titled“Donald Trump, Master of Disaster? Trust me: The president is not ready to handle a global crisis:” At some point a highly fatal, highly contagious virus will emerge—like the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic, which infected one third of the world’s population and killed between 50 and 100 million people. So how might a major crisis play out under a Trump administration? Getting the initial hazard analysis right shapes everything that follows—particularly on public health threats. So far, Trump’s relationship with science has been fraught. . . the president has shown little respect for scientific expertise, dismissing the global consensus on climate science and flirting with the anti-vaccine movement. If he disregards the U.S. government’s own scientists when the next crisis hits, he will undercut his administration’s ability to manage it. Botch the diagnosis, botch the prescription. . . . The president is also eroding the U.S. government’s standing as a reliable source of public information. This credibility has served the country and the world well in past outbreaks: clear, measured public information is critical to avoiding panic and shaping how the population seeks to protect itself. . . . A president must project reasoned calm during a crisis, and tamp down on ill-informed fear mongering – something Trump has appeared incapable of doing. If he cannot keep himself from promoting alarmist and misleading messages, he should hand off crisis messaging to those in his administration who can. . . . President Trump’s hiring freeze, foot-dragging on appointing sub-cabinet leadership for State and USAID, and gutting of their budgets would kneecap the very agencies he will need to rely on in a crisis. Finally, and perhaps most critically, the new administration needs to get its house in order at the National Security Council. Strong NSC leadership is one of the linchpins of any large scale disaster response. Why? Because these responses inevitably draw on expertise and tools from an alphabet soup of different federal agencies, and this requires a strong and strategic traffic cop.

 

3. MARCH 2018: Robert Redfield is tapped by Trump administration to lead the CDC. An experienced virologist who worked on HIV/AIDS in the military, Redfield has no experience leading an agency. Redfield’s nomination is opposed by Sen. Patty Murray in a letterciting a “pattern of ethically and morally questionable behavior.” Murray urged the administration to “reconsider” the nomination because of “Dr. Redfield’s lack of public health expertise and his failure to embrace the science underscoring critical public health work.” Timeline: Coronavirus in America in Rolling Stone by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

4. MARCH 21, 2018: Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) opposes Redfield’s appointment as CDC director. CSPI president issues statement entitled CSPI Urges Administration Not to Appoint Dr. Robert Redfield, with History of Scientific Misconduct, as CDC Director stating: This appointment would be disastrous for at least three reasons.  First, he has no experience running a public health agency, and does not have the all-important relationships with state and local public health officials such experience would bring.  Second, based on work I conducted with Sidney Wolfe at Public Citizenin the mid-1990s, he has been credibly accused of scientific misconduct for exaggerating the benefits of a putative HIV vaccine, for which he was investigated by the military.  Third, he has supported a variety of policies related to HIV/AIDS that are anathema to the great majority of public health professionals: mandatory HIV testing, reporting of positive HIV results to public health authorities without the patient’s consent, and quarantining of HIV-positive individuals in the military. What one wants in a director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is a scientist of impeccable scientific integrity.  What one would get in Robert Redfield is a sloppy scientist with a long history of scientific misconduct and an extreme religious agenda.  We urge the administration not to appoint Dr. Redfield.

 

5. MAY 8, 2018: The National Security Council removes Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer, the top official responsible for pandemic response and disbands the global health security team. He is not replaced. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. Admiral Ziemer abruptly left the administration, following a reorganization by then national security advisor John Bolton. Shortly before Ziemer’s departure, another former Trump official, Luciana Borio, told a conference marking the centennial of the 1918 flu pandemic that the threat of a new outbreak was a global health priority. “Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.” Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News.

 

6. FEB 6, 2019: NBC News reported that Trump, who doesn’t regularly read the daily intelligence summary prepared for him, is also participating in relatively few in-person briefings from his spy agencies. It’s the latest indication that Trump does not consistently rely on the information and analysisprovided to him by the $80 billion a year S. intelligence-gathering apparatus. U.S. officials tell NBC News that in private Trump frequently questions the integrity and judgment of the intelligence officials who are giving him secret information. On Trump’s calendar, just 17 intelligence briefings in 85 days by Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner, Ken Dilanian @KenDilanianNBC and Courtney Kube @ckubeNBC.

 

7. LATE NOV—EARLY DEC 2019:S. intelligence agencies warn of a “cataclysmic” and “out-of-control” disease in Wuhan, China. The Pentagon’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) circulates a report identifying a contagion sweeping through Wuhan, China. NCMI bases its report on wire intercepts, computer intercepts, and satellite images. “Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,” a source tells ABC News (in April 2020). ABC News, Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November by Josh Margolin @JoshMargolin and James Gordon Meek @meekwire; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

8. JAN 4, 2020: Helen Branswell, an accomplished health journalist on the staff of STAT, a Boston-based news group that specializes in reporting on medicine, posted the first article in the American media about a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases in the Chinese city of Wuhan noting that Chinese officials were not being candid about what they know, and questioning the Chinese official assessment that the disease could not be transmitted human to human. Helen Branswell sounded the alarm only four days after China alerted WHO about the outbreak, three days after the closure of the Wuhan seafood market, and one day after Chinese officials briefed the CDC director. Writing for STAT, Branswell noted the possibility that the outbreak might be traced to a novel coronavirus. Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News; Modeshift article by Keith Schneider @modeshift.

 

9. JAN 17, 2020: The CDC implements health screenings in three U.S. airports for travelers coming from Wuhan, China. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. But academic studies concerning health screenings implemented in previous epidemics published prior to the coronavirus outbreak as well as academic studies of the health screenings and travel restrictions implemented during the coronavirus pandemic, concluded that airport screenings and travel restrictions are largely ineffective. Gostic KM, Kucharski AJ, Lloyd-Smith JO. Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection. 2015;4:e05564. Published 2015 Feb 19. doi:10.7554/eLife.05564.

 

10. JAN 23, 2020:  Bright, an internationally recognized expert in the fields of immunology, therapeutic intervention, vaccine, and diagnostic development and one of the nation’s leading experts in pandemic preparedness and response, attended a meeting with HHS senior leadership across all agencies to brief Secretary Azar on COVID-19. Anticipating the urgency and magnitude of the threat and knowing the lead times needed to develop new drugs, diagnostics, and vaccines, Dr. Bright pressed for urgent access to  funding, personnel, and clinical specimens, including viruses, which he emphasized were all critically necessary to begin development of lifesaving medicines needed in the likely event that the virus spread outside of Southeast Asia. Secretary Azar and Dr. Kadlec responded with surprise at Dr. Bright’s dire predictions and urgency, and asserted that the United States would be able to contain the virus and keep it out of the United States. Secretary Azar further indicated that the CDC would look at the issue of travel bans to keep the virus contained. Dr. Bright responded that the virus “might already be here. We just don’t have the tests to know one way or the other.” Dr. Bright’s comments were met with skepticism and were clearly not welcome. Nonetheless, he continued to press his point that the situation was dire and that money was urgently needed to develop diagnostics and drugs to combat the virus when it eventually spread to the United States. Secretary Azar then questioned Dr. Bright about BARDA’s funding to combat the virus, to which Dr. Bright replied that BARDA had no funds available for emerging infectious diseases to meet the challenges of this pandemic, and that BARDA would be forced to re-direct funds from existing projects until new funding was made available. Secretary Azar also asked the representative from the Assistant Secretary for Financial Resources (“ASFR”) about availability of funding for the response. It was evident from Secretary Azar’s reaction that this topic had not yet been raised at senior HHS levels. Complaint.

 

11. JAN 27, 2020: Scientific American and STAT @statnews published an article by Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell entitled Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New  Coronavirus warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people. “Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

 

12. JAN 28, 2020: “Red Dawn” email chain. On an email chain entitled “Red Dawn” hosted by Duane Caneva, the chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security, medical experts expressed alarm about the growing outbreak. Dr. Carter Mecher, a senior medical adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs, warned that WHO and CDC were behind the curve. In the Red Dawn email chain, he writes to colleagues in the administration: “I’m seeing comments from people asking why WHO [World Health Organization] and CDC seem to be downplaying this.” He adds that “no matter how I look at this, it looks [to] be bad. If we assume the same case ascertainment rate as the spring wave of 2009 H1N1 [swine flu], this looks nearly as transmissible as flu (but with a longer incubation period and greater Ro). The projected size of the outbreak already seems hard to believe, but when I think of the actions being taken across China that are reminiscent of 1918 Philadelphia [during the influenza epidemic], perhaps those numbers are correct. And if we accept that level of transmissibility, the [case fatality rate] is approaching the range of a severe flu pandemic.” The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake; Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News.

 

13. JAN 31, 2020: The Trump Administration issues a Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirus stating “that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to restrict and suspend the entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the People’s Republic of China, excluding the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” Eleven categories of aliens were excluded from the restrictions. But academic studies concerning travel restrictions implemented in previous epidemics published prior to the coronavirus outbreak as well as academic studies of the travel restrictions implemented during the coronavirus pandemic, concluded that travel restrictions are largely ineffective.  For example, a 2011 study on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic published in the journal PLOS One found that travel restrictions creating a 40% reduction in air traffic to and from Mexico, the origin of the influenza strain, caused a three-day or less delay, on average, in the first imported cases reaching other countries. It said that “no containment was achieved by such restrictions.” Even assuming an unlikely 90% air traffic reduction, the study said, “the resulting delay would be on the order of 2 weeks.” org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg. Similarly, in a 2012 study of  the effectiveness of travel restrictions in a flu pandemic published in BMC Infectious Diseases by researchers in Hong Kong estimated that “imposing a 99% air travel restriction” would delay the peak of a new influenza pandemic in Hong Kong “by up to two weeks.” But, “[a]ntivirals and hospitalization were found to be more effective on attack rate reductions than travel restrictions,” the study said. Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg. And a 2014 review of 23 studies on the impact of travel restrictions on the spread of influenza found overall they have “only limited effectiveness,” the degree of which varied depending on the restrictions themselves, epidemic size, transmissibility of the virus and other geographic considerations. The review, published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization, said: “In isolation, travel restrictions might delay the spread and peak of pandemics by a few weeks or months but we found no evidence that they would contain influenza within a defined geographical area.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.  The review entitled Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review also explained that a study set in the USA revealed similar findings – e.g. a delay in spread of 2–3 weeks if travel restrictions were 99% effective and implemented in conjunction with border restrictions that prevented the entry of infected travelers. Travel restrictions alone could delay spread by 1 week but only if implemented within 2 weeks of the first case. In one simulation, border controls preventing 99.9% of cases entering any given country delayed epidemic spread by up to 35 days. Another study in the USA presented analogous results – e.g. a 90% restriction on long-distance flights led to delays in the epidemic peak that ranged between a few days and a few weeks. Effectiveness of travel restrictions decreased as the transmissibility of the strain increased; travel restrictions reduced the incidence of new cases by less than 3%. According to a time-series analysis in the USA, a 50% restriction in air travel during the 2001–2002 influenza season would have delayed the peak mortality associated with novel strains of seasonal influenza by 16 days – i.e. compared with the timing of the peak in previous years.

 

14. JAN 31, 2020: Experts agree that Trump’s limitations on travel from China, in late January, and from parts of Europe, six weeks later, made a bad situation worse. The Chinese “ban” was a further irritant to the Chinese government (despite Trump’s ongoing personal praise of Xi Jinping), and because it wasn’t absolute, some 40,000 U.S. citizens and others flew into American airports from China, with minimal testing, screening, or quarantine provisions. The ban might even have worsened the situation, by impelling Americans (who might have been exposed) to get back while they still could. The Atlantic The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything by James Fallows @JamesFallows.

 

15. FEB 5, 2020: Three experts at a House subcommittee hearing questioned the effectiveness of the travel restrictions imposed on February 2, 2020. The prepared Testimony of Jennifer B. Nuzzo @JenniferNuzzo to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs stated “I am an Associate Professor in the Departments of Environmental Health and Engineering and Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. My colleagues and I at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security have spent close to twenty years analyzing infectious disease outbreaks, including epidemics and pandemics, in attempt to better understand the resources, practices and policies that are needed to prevent, mitigate and contain them.  We must now contemplate the possibility of pandemic spread of 2019 nCoV and must plan for how we will mitigate the impacts of the virus. In my view, it is highly likely that the United States will continue to see cases of 2019 nCoV, despite the recently implemented travel bans and quarantines. During her testimony,   Jennifer Nuzzo, explained, “Simply put, this virus is spreading too quickly and too silently, and our surveillance is too limited for us to truly know which countries have active transmission and which don’t. The virus could enter the U.S. from other parts of the world not on our restricted list, and it may already be circulating here. We often see, when we have emerging disease outbreaks, our first instinct is to try to lock down travel to prevent the introduction of virus to our country. And that is a completely understandable instinct. I have never seen instances in which that has worked when we are talking about a virus at this scale. Respiratory viruses like this one, unlike others–they just move quickly. They are hard to spot because they look like many other diseases. It’s very difficult to interrupt them at borders. You would need to have complete surveillance in order to do that. And we simply don’t have that.” Factcheck.org, The Facts on Trump’s Travel Restrictions by Robert Farley [Not on Twitter]; Homeland Preparedness News Experts warn quarantines, travel bans may be ineffective in combating coronavirus by Claudia Adrien @Claudia_Adrien @homelandprep.

 

16. FEB 8, 2020: One of the first CDC test kits arrived in a Federal Express package at a public health laboratory on the east side of Manhattan. By then, the virus had reached the United States, and the kits represented the government’s best hope for containing it while that was still possible. For hours, lab technicians struggled to verify that the test worked. Each time, it fell short, producing untrustworthy results. That night, they called their lab director, Jennifer Rakeman, an assistant commissioner in the New York City health department, to tell her it had failed. “Oh, s—,” she replied. “What are we going to do now?” The Washington Post Investigation Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help by Shawn Boburg, @ShawnBoburg Robert O’Harrow Jr., @robertoharrow, Neena Satija @neenareports and Amy Goldstein @goldsteinamy.

 

17. FEB 8, 2020: Scott Becker is the executive director of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, the umbrella group that represents these labs and helps them interface with the CDC. On the morning of February 8th, a Saturday, his cellphone began blowing up with messages from member labs. “I started to see this string of the problems, and I thought, ‘Oh, my God, this can’t be happening,’” Becker says. “To me, it was the same moment of ‘Where were you on 9/11?’ because of the enormity of what we knew was coming. If this test had a problem, we were weeks behind.” He was stung by the realization that “we were not going to be able to contain this.” In interviews with Rolling Stone, FDA officials accused the CDC of providing incomplete and misleading information, of downplaying the number of public labs that were unable to run the test, and of signaling to the FDA that the CDC would be able to fix the problem on its own. A CDC representative, in turn, claimed that the FDA slowed the CDC’s response by throwing up redundant regulatory hurdles. The FDA would ultimately conclude that the “CDC did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol” and that a “manufacturing issue” — believed to be contamination at the CDC’s lab — rather than a design defect, was responsible for the flawed results. Rolling Stone The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster by Tim Dickinson @7im. An investigation later determined the CDC facilities that assembled the kits violated sound manufacturing practices, resulting in contamination of one of the three test components used in the highly sensitive detection process, the scientists said. The cross contamination most likely occurred because chemical mixtures were assembled into the kits within a lab space that was also handling synthetic coronavirus material. The scientists also said the proximity deviated from accepted procedures and jeopardized testing for the virus. The Washington Post separately confirmed that Food and Drug Administration officials concluded that the CDC violated its own laboratory standards in making the kits. The substandard practices exposed the kits to contamination. The Washington Post Investigation Contamination at CDC lab delayed rollout of coronavirus tests by David Willman [Not on Twitter]. According to an investigation by the New York Times, the F.D.A., which oversees laboratory tests, sent Dr. Timothy Stenzel, chief of in vitro diagnostics and radiological health, to the C.D.C. labs to assess the problem, several officials said. He found an astonishing lack of expertise in commercial manufacturing and learned that nobody was in charge of the entire process, they said. Problems ranged from researchers entering and exiting the coronavirus laboratories without changing their coats, to test ingredients being assembled in the same room where researchers were working on positive coronavirus samples, officials said. Those practices made the tests sent to public health labs unusable because they were contaminated with the coronavirus, and produced some inconclusive results. The New York Times D.C. Labs Were Contaminated, Delaying Coronavirus Testing, Officials Say by Sheila Kaplan @BySheilaKaplan.

 

18. FEB 9, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 8:29PM Dr. Eva K. Lee, an American operations researcher at Georgia Tech, emailed Dr. James Lawler, Dr. Carter E. Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA and others. Dr. Lee’s email stated that Covid-19 is “over 10-30 times more deadly than seasonal flu. Moreover, this is only a lower bound because the government basically shut down and isolated the entire infected zone. I think this gives people a sense of risk. It is not to make them panic, but to prepare citizens. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

19. FEB 11, 2020: In a pre-print of a study entitled The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated published in MedRxiv, researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. They further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. They found that in general, between 40,000 to 140,000 people in Wuhan traveled to destinations outside of Hubei province daily before the lock-down of the city on January 23, with travel peaks on January 9, 21 and 22. Thus, it is likely that this massive flow of people from Hubei province during January facilitated the rapid dissemination of virus. Overall, the researchers report R0 values are likely be between 4.7 and 6.6. They argue that the high R0 and a relatively short incubation period lead to the extremely rapid growth of the of 2019-nCoV outbreak as compared to the 2003 SARS epidemic where R0 was estimated to be between 2.2 to 3.6… Results show that if as low as 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus.

 

20. FEB 23, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 11:35 PM Kadlec, HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, responds to a 7:38AM email sent by Dr. Eva K Lee, the researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology, who was among the group of academics, government physicians and infectious diseases doctors who had spent weeks tracking the outbreak in the Red Dawn email chain. Dr. Lee’s 7:38AM email said that a 20-year-old Chinese woman had infected five relatives with the virus even though she never displayed any symptoms herself. The implication was grave — apparently healthy people could be unknowingly spreading the virus — and supported the need to move quickly to mitigation. “Is this true?!” Dr. Kadlec wrote back to Dr. Lee. “If so we have a huge whole on our screening and quarantine effort,” including a typo where he meant hole. Her response was blunt: “People are carrying the virus everywhere.” The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT, David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

21. FEB 24, 2020: After receiving Dr. Lee’s emails confirming asymptomatic spread of coronavirus which had dire implications,  Kadlec and the others decided to present President Trump with a plan titled “Four Steps to Mitigation,” which would tell the president that they needed to begin preparing Americans for extreme mitigation efforts. But over the next several days, a presidential blowup and internal turf fights would sidetrack such a move. The focus would shift to messaging and confident predictions of success rather than publicly calling for a shift to mitigation. Within 24 hours, before they got a chance to make their presentation to the president, the plan went awry. Mr. Trump was walking up the steps of Air Force One to head home from India on Feb. 25 when Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, publicly issued the blunt warning they had all agreed was necessary. On the 18-hour plane ride home, Mr. Trump fumed as he watched the stock market crash after Dr. Messonnier’s comments. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT , David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

22. FEB 28, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. Dr. Carter Mecher emails the Red Dawn email chain at 8:16 AM: “My concern is that a possible scenario is that we become Italy part2. The lesson is that although things might have looked under control on Feb 20 (3 cases / 0 deaths), things obviously weren’t fine. They couldn’t see how large the iceberg was below the water line. They were blind to the extent of disease and the extent of on-going transmission. We have also been flying blind. We see that part of iceberg above the surface.”  The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

23. MARCH 1, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 11:42 AM, Mecher warns the Red Dawn email chain that the United States:

Should have pulled all the triggers for NPls [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions e.g. lockdowns] by now they are already later than they realize. I fear we are about to see a replay of Italy….More than 1 death per million population is probably too late. We can work backwards from the first critically ill case involving local transmission and no linkage to a known case. . . .the far end of the window is about 2 weeks from when you identify 2 critically ill cases. To give you a cushion, I would be ready to pull the trigger no later than 2 weeks of the first critically ill patient.
1. By the time you identify the first death per million population in someone with local

transmission (no linkage to a known case), you need to pull the trigger on NPIs. Looking at Seattle (population of city of Seattle of 740K and population of metro Seattle of 3.5M), I would pull the trigger very soon the window is very close to closing.

2. No later than 2 weeks from the confirmation of the first critically ill patient per million population. The window is very close to closing for Fairfield/Sacramento CA. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

24. MARCH 3, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 3:53PM, Dr. Eva Lee, an American operations researcher at Georgia Tech, sends a reply to the email chain:
25. Social distancing, NPI [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions e.g. lockdowns] can deter the spread.

Singapore and Hong Kong prove that without any definitive treatment and absence of any prophylactic MCM [Medical Counter-Measure] protection, closing schools [and] business can make a huge difference. I ran a few models for school closure and business tele-work for Santa Clara, King County and I want to share some graphs here. [The graphs show that if both schools and business closed on 3/3/20, the pandemic could have been contained. In short, the graphs show that if lockdowns had been implemented two weeks earlier, it would have had a dramatic impact on the progression of the pandemic.]

Quarantine a city ?

If we can contain 80% of the people’s movement (as Hong Kong and Singapore, or in the Santa Clara model above), you can see that we are stopping the spread. . . The closing schools and tele-work in a sense is volunteering quarantine. It can work beautifully and very effectively. . . So the effort is volunteering quarantine of their own residents and then quarantine for everyone who enters the city. Together, it puts a brake on the spread. It is right to do it now. 

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

25. MARCH 4, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 2:19 PM, Dr. Carter Mecher, replies to Dr. Eva Lee and the other officials in the email group:

Eva, I agree with you. Political leaders and public health leaders need to be convinced of the utility of these interventions and the courage to act. If they miss the window to act, they don’t get a do-over. Can’t take a Mulligan with NPIs [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions e.g. lockdowns]. There is no reset button to play the game again. You only get one shot. I fear that Seattle may have missed their opportunity. Out of desperation I predict they may eventually implement and endure all the downsides of NPIs with marginal to little upside. This is exactly what happened in 1918. A while back I shared some slides on the lessons learned from 1918. Unfortunately, we have to learn some lessons again and again.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

26. MARCH 4, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 2:36  PM, Dr. Carter Mecher, emails Dr. Eva Lee and the other officials in the email group:

The US is now up to 11deaths (10 in Washington and 1 in California). I think there is a disconnect among very smart people. They hear the high % of patients who are asymptomatic or have mild illness and they equate this to a mild outbreak. Hard for me to understand how they come to this conclusion.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

27. MARCH 9, 2020:  Trump Tweeted, “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of Coronavirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” The Washington Post Timeline: The more than 50 times Trump has downplayed the coronavirus threat by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake and  JM Rieger @RiegerReport. The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts. Scientific American Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges by Jeremy Samuel Faust [not on Twitter]. The annual flu mortality figures published by the CDC are estimates produced by plugging laboratory-confirmed deaths into a mathematical model that attempts to correct for undercounting. Covid-19 death figures represent a literal count of people who have either tested positive for the virus or whose diagnosis was based on meeting certain clinical and epidemiological criteria. To get a more accurate comparison, one must start with the number of directly confirmed flu deaths, which the CDC tracks on an annual basis. In the past seven flu seasons, going back to 2013, that tally fluctuated between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths. Note that these numbers are very different from the CDC’s final official flu death estimates. For 2018-2019, for instance, the 7,172 confirmed flu deaths translated to a final estimate of between 26,339 and 52,664 deaths. Again, that’s because the CDC plugs the confirmed deaths into a model that attempts to adjust for what many epidemiologists believe is a severe undercount. Using an apples-to-apples comparison, we can say that the coronavirus and the disease it causes, covid-19, have already killed eight times as many people as the flu. By the time we get data for the entire season, the difference appears likely to be at least tenfold, or a full order of magnitude. The Washington Post There’s a more accurate way to compare coronavirus deaths to the flu by Christopher Ingraham @_cingraham.

 

28. MAY 6, 2020: Trump suggest that the number of deaths from Covid-19 is overstated. Jonathan Swan and Sam Baker reported for Axios that “Trump has complained to advisers about the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower — and a number of his senior aides share this view, according to sources with direct knowledge.”  This stems from an idea, long simmering in virus-skeptical circles, that public health officials are improperly classifying people who died “with” coronavirus as having died “of” coronavirus instead. The basic thinking is that a large share of the dead are older, a large share of Covid-19 cases are mild, and consequently, older people with mild Covid-19 infections may be dying for unrelated reasons. It’s a fair hypothesis to offer, but empirically it seems to be false — many more people are dying than can be accounted for by the official statistics. Vox, Trump’s plan to limit the pandemic’s death toll: Undercount the numbers by Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias. And a paper titled Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, published in JAMA by Yale researchers concluded that official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states. The study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020. These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. The researchers concluded that there were approximately 122,300 excess deaths, but only 95,235 reported deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020 indicating that deaths from COVID-19 were undercounted by as much as 27,065. Weinberger DM, Chen J, Cohen T, et al. Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020. JAMA Intern Med. Published online July 01, 2020 doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3391. Subsequent research has confirmed the conclusion that more people have died from Covid-19 than the official death statistics indicate. For example, on August 13, 2020, The New York Times reported that across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus. The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 by Denise Lu @DeniseDSLu.

 

THE COMPLETE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC TIMELINE

 

The timeline begins in 2009 because President Trump repeatedly claimed that the Obama Administration left him with an empty Strategic National Stockpile, a repository of emergency medicines and supplies, and broken testing. For example, on March 27, 2020 the president said, “When I took this over, it was an empty box. We didn’t have testing. We didn’t have anything. We had a broken system there. We had a broken system with stockpiling. We had a lot of broken systems. And I’m not just blaming President Obama. You go long before that.” He continued, “Nobody has done anything like we’ve been able to do. And everything I took over was a mess. We had a bad testing system. We had a bad stockpile system. We had nothing in the stockpile system.” The New York Times 260,000 Words, Full of Self-Praise, From Trump on the Virus by Jeremy W. Peters, @jwpetersNYT Elaina Plott @elainaplott and Maggie Haberman @maggieNYT. Similarly, the president said in an April 6, 2020 White House briefing: “But they also gave us empty cupboards. The cupboard was bare. You’ve heard the expression, ‘the cupboard was bare.’ So we took over a stockpile with a cupboard that was bare.” PolitiFact by Amy Sherman @AmySherman1. A review of this #CoronavirusTimeline, however, demonstrates that the Obama Administration took comprehensive steps to prepare the nation for a pandemic starting in 2009:

 

2009: PREDICT, a project in the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) program, was initiated in 2009 by the Obama Administration to strengthen global capacity for detection and discovery of zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. With partners in 31 countries, PREDICT built platforms for disease surveillance and for identifying and monitoring pathogens that can be shared between animals and people. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline by @procon_org.

 

2009: Responding to swine flu, which the CDC estimated killed more than 12,000 people in the United States, had required the largest deployment in the Strategic National Stockpile’s history, including nearly 20 million pieces of personal protective equipment and more than 85 million N95 masks, according to a 2016 report published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. Had Congress kept funding at the 2010 level through the end of the Obama administration, the stockpile would have benefited from $321 million more than it ended up getting, according to budget documents reviewed by ProPublica. ProPublica, How Tea Party Budget Battles Left the National Emergency Medical Stockpile Unprepared for Coronavirus by Yeganeh Torbati @yjtorbati and Isaac Arnsdorf @iarnsdorf @propublica.

 

2010: Republicans took over the House of Representatives after the 2010 midterms on the Tea Party wave of opposition to the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. The new House majority was intent on curbing government spending, especially at HHS, which administered Obamacare. How Tea Party Budget Battles Left the National Emergency Medical Stockpile Unprepared @propublica by @yjtorbati and @iarnsdorf.

 

AUG 2, 2011: Right at the debt ceiling deadline, a complicated agreement was reached that allowed for three debt ceiling increases totaling $2.1 trillion. The legislation placed caps on the level of funding permitted through the annual appropriations process for the next ten years and created a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (the “Supercommittee”), charged with identifying an additional $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction, with across-the-board sequestration as a backup if it fails. The fiscal fights of the Obama administration. An interactive timeline

by Molly Reynolds @mollyereynolds and Philip Wallach @PhilipWallach @BrookingsInst.

 

2011: After using up swine flu emergency funds, the Obama administration tried to replenish the stockpile in 2011 by asking Congress to provide $655 million, up from the previous year’s budget of less than $600 million. “We recognized the need for replenishment of the stockpile and budgeted about a 10% increase,” said Dr. Nicole Lurie, who served as the assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS during the Obama administration. “That was rejected by the Republican House.” In the bill’s final version, Congress allocated a compromise $534 million for the 2012 fiscal year, a 10% budget cut from the prior year and $121 million less than the Obama administration had requested. How Tea Party Budget Battles Left the National Emergency Medical Stockpile Unprepared @propublica by @yjtorbati and @iarnsdorf.

 

MARCH 1, 2013: Sequestration takes effect. There are $85 billion in across-the-board spending cuts to both defense and non-defense federal programs. The fiscal fights of the Obama administration. An interactive timeline by @mollyereynolds @PhilipWallach @BrookingsInst.

 

MARCH 14, 2013: Obama signs the Pandemics and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPRA) of 2013. The legislation reauthorizes provisions of the Project Bioshield Act of 2004 and the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) of 2006 for an additional five years.

The law extends the mandate of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to support medical countermeasure development for biothreat agents for possible inclusion in the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile. PAHPRA also enhances the authority of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to support rapid responses to public health emergencies by clarifying that even before an event, the FDA may issue an emergency use authorization to allow emergency use of certain products as medical countermeasures. The Congressional Budget Office estimated implementation of the bill will cost $11 billion between fiscal years 2014 to 2018.  Global Biodefense, @GlobalBioD an independent, veteran-owned small business not affiliated with any government agency or political organization that publishes the latest news and insights on health security from pathogens, emerging infectious diseases and CBRN agents. Globalbiodefense.com

 

DEC 2, 2014: President Obama gave a speech at the National Institutes of Health: “There may and likely will come a time in which we have both an airborne disease that is deadly. And in order for us to deal with that effectively, we have to put in place an infrastructure — not just here at home, but globally — that allows us to see it quickly, isolate it quickly, respond to it quickly… So that if and when a new strain of flu, like the Spanish flu, crops up five years from now or a decade from now, we’ve made the investment and we’re further along to be able to catch it.” Coronavirus: Timeline by @procon_org.

 

2015: A Department of Homeland Security study predicts a severe flu epidemic could result in 6.5 million hospitalizations and 2.3 million ICU admissions and “could overwhelm the Healthcare and Public Health Sector in as little as 3-6 weeks.” The study warns of “significant shortages in… personal protective equipment (PPE), and medical equipment, including ventilators” as well as of “supply chain disruptions” that could “significantly hamper the effectiveness” of frontline workers. The document outlines strategy now known a “flattening the curve.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America  by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

2016: The Obama administration prepares a 69-page Pandemic Playbook to coordinate an early, all of government response to an outbreak. Trump officials will leave it on the shelf. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America  by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

DEC 20, 2016: The Atlantic publishes a prescient article titled How a Pandemic Might Play Out Under Trump by Ed Yong @edyong209: Obama had a good track record of responding to these threats, and channeling funds into fighting outbreaks around the world—as did his predecessor George W. Bush. As Donald Trump prepares to become America’s 45th President in 2017, the question isn’t whether he’ll face a deadly outbreak during his presidency, but when? And more importantly, how will he cope? Outbreaks of disease are among the ultimate tests for any leader who wants to play on the global stage. They demand diplomacy, decisiveness, leadership, humility, and expertise—and they quickly unearth any lack of the same. Bioethicist Art Caplan from the New York University School of Medicine envisages a quick slide towards isolation and authoritarianism. In a blog post that can only be described as pandemic fan-fiction, he imagines that a lethal mutant strain of H7N9 flu emerges in China and spreads to America. A hypothetical President Trump responds with a quick succession of moves: He seals the borders with Canada and Mexico; he quarantines sick Americans; he declares martial law, builds detention-style camps for quarantine-defiers, and uses epidemic conspiracies to launch a trade war with China.

Future years will reveal whether the story is prophetic or far-fetched. For now, we can only speculate, using the president-elect’s own words and actions to predict how he might fare in an outbreak. Accurate public communication is vital. During the Ebola outbreak, misinformation circulated more widely than the virus itself. They resembled the pernicious and long-debunked claim that vaccines cause autism, which has led to a resurgence in mumps, measles, and other infectious diseases, and which Trump  has himself promoted. If anything, this problem is likely to get worse, given America’s continuing struggle to deal with “fake news.” Inaccurate information can be easily seeded by foreign parties, and given weight and prominence by online algorithms. It’s arguable whether such misinformation made a difference between victory or defeat in the election, but inarguable that it could mean life or death in an outbreak. The president-elect is hardly immune. Before, during, and since the election, Trump has had a strained relationship with facts, having repeatedly and reflexively lied about matters both large and small. He has reportedly failed to seek advice from the State Department before calling foreign leaders. He is avoiding most of his daily intelligence briefings, despite his lack of prior military or political experience—“I’m, like, a smart person,” he recently said.  These actions portray an incoming administration with a casual disregard for evidence, an unwillingness to tap into the expertise around them, and a reckless self-confidence. They suggest that, in an outbreak, Trump is more likely to heed his own counsel than that of the Centers of Disease Control (CDC) and other relevant experts. And he is likely to project that counsel to over 17 million followers. Consider what happened during the Ebola outbreak, well before Trump announced his candidacy. On Twitter, he rejected evidence that Ebola is less contagious than is commonly perceived, since it can only be transmitted through bodily fluids. “He is very adept at using social media to rally supporters, but has also been inconsistent at sticking to message,” says Radin. “And ad-libbing, rambling, or flying off the handle can be very dangerous in an epidemic.” Trump’s Ebola tweets also revealed how he might deal with an outbreak as President. He repeatedly called for the U.S. to stop all flights from Ebola-infected countries, even though no such direct flights existed, and even though flight bans don’t work. Several countries enacted such bans during the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the swine flu pandemic of 2009, but to no avail. It’s impossible to fully seal a country.

 

2017: From at least 2005 to 2017, an office inside DHS, in tandem with analysts and supercomputers at several national laboratories, produced detailed analyses of what would happen to everything from transportation systems to hospitals if a pandemic hit the United States. But the Department of Homeland Security abruptly stopped updating its annual computer pandemic models in 2017, leaving the department flat-footed. Politico DHS Wound Down Pandemic Models Before Coronavirus Struck by Daniel Lippman @dlippman @politico.

 

JAN 13, 2017: The joint Obama-Trump transition teams run an exercise for pandemic preparedness.  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw @DaniSchulkin

 

JAN 23, 2017: Officials from the outgoing Obama administration met with incoming Trump officials to discuss challenges that would arise in the event of a pandemic. The tabletop exercise simulated a new respiratory influenza outbreak starting in China and arriving in the United States due to international travel. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline @procon_org

 

JAN 24, 2017: It’s the first full week of President Trump’s administration and attacks on science are already underway.  In a memo to Environmental Protection Agency staff, the Trump transition team ordered a freeze on grants and contracts and imposed new restrictions on EPA scientists. At the U.S. Department of Agriculture, scientists at the agency’s main research arm have been barred from any public communication about their work. This undermines vital public health and environmental protections, erodes public trust and violates the basic principles of science, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Trump Administration Moves to Muzzle Scientists, Block Research by @UCSUSA.

 

MARCH 1, 2017: Jeremy Konyndyk, @JeremyKonyndyk former director of USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, wrote an article in Politico @Politico “Donald Trump, Master of Disaster? Trust me: The president is not ready to handle a global crisis:”

The Obama administration’s Ebola response, coordinated closely with bipartisan leadership in Congress, relied on core elements of competent federal crisis management: understanding the nature of the threat; providing credible and even-keeled public information; working closely with key allies and multilateral institutions; supplying adequate resources; and ensuring strong White House oversight of the government’s strategy, coordination and execution. All of these elements have been undermined during the Trump administration’s turbulent first month—just look at the White House’s chaotically managed rollout of its executive orders, or the needless spats with allies like Australia, France and Sweden. It is not too late to get things back onto a better track— but it will take a rapid course correction by the White House. A major new global health crisis is a question of when, not if. Every president dating back at least to Ronald Reagan has dealt with major and unexpected outbreaks—HIV/AIDS, SARS, bird flu, Ebola, Zika. . . .At some point a highly fatal, highly contagious virus will emerge—like the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic, which infected one third of the world’s population and killed between 50 and 100 million people. So how might a major crisis play out under a Trump administration? Getting the initial hazard analysis right shapes everything that follows—particularly on public health threats. So far, Trump’s relationship with science has been fraught. During the Ebola outbreak, he tweeted that health workers should be blocked from returning to the U.S., despite the (clearly correct, in hindsight) advice from U.S. government disease experts that barring them would not protect U.S. public health. In the years since, the president has shown little respect for scientific expertise, dismissing the global consensus on climate science and flirting with the anti-vaccine movement. If he disregards the U.S. government’s own scientists when the next crisis hits, he will undercut his administration’s ability to manage it. Botch the diagnosis, botch the prescription. . . . The president is also eroding the U.S. government’s standing as a reliable source of public information. This credibility has served the country and the world well in past outbreaks: clear, measured public information is critical to avoiding panic and shaping how the population seeks to protect itself. . . . A president must project reasoned calm during a crisis, and tamp down on ill-informed fear mongering – something Trump has appeared incapable of doing. If he cannot keep himself from promoting alarmist and misleading messages, he should hand off crisis messaging to those in his administration who can. . . . President Trump’s hiring freeze, foot-dragging on appointing sub-cabinet leadership for State and USAID, and gutting of their budgets would kneecap the very agencies he will need to rely on in a crisis. Finally, and perhaps most critically, the new administration needs to get its house in order at the National Security Council. Strong NSC leadership is one of the linchpins of any large scale disaster response. Why? Because these responses inevitably draw on expertise and tools from an alphabet soup of different federal agencies, and this requires a strong and strategic traffic cop.

 

MAY 11, 2017: The Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment warns of major pandemic risks. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin

 

MAY 19, 2017: Nearly 700 positions are vacant at the CDC because of a continuing freeze on hiring that officials and researchers say affects programs supporting local and state public health emergency readiness, infectious disease control and chronic disease prevention. At least 125 job categories have been blocked from being filled including several positions in the Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response, which regulates some of the world’s most dangerous bacteria and viruses and manages the nation’s stockpile of emergency medical countermeasures. Others include positions in the director’s office, infectious disease offices and the office for noncommunicable diseases, injury and environmental health. The Washington Post article entitled “Nearly 700 vacancies at CDC because of Trump administration’s hiring freeze” by Lena Sun @bylenasun.

 

MAY 23, 2017: The Trump administration’s FY2018 budget proposed a 25% cut in funding for research programs at NIH’s National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. Silencing Science Tracker.

 

JULY 2017: A permanent Director of the CDC was not appointed until July 2017, six months after president Trump took office, and the top position at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) remained empty for nearly eight months. Second-in-command positions also remained empty across health-related agencies: Within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), there was no Assistant Secretary for Health for over a year, no Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response for eight months, and no Director of the Office of Global Affairs for five months. Forensic News Trump’s botched coronavirus response has been 3 years in the making by Adrienne Cobb. @forensicnewsnet.

 

NOV 14, 2017: Alex Azar is nominated to be new Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). When Pres. Donald Trump announced he was nominating Azar to be the next secretary of HHS, Trump called him a “star for better healthcare and lower drug prices.” But Azar, who served as president of pharmaceutical giant Lilly USA until January, has been widely criticized for raising medication costs. During his decade at Lilly, the company tripled the price of its insulin and was fined for colluding to keep its prices high in Mexico. Scientific American What You Need to Know about Alex Azar, Trump’s HHS Nominee by Dina Fine Maron @Dina_Maron. Azar is a creature of the GOP establishment: He cut his teeth as a Supreme Court clerk to Antonin Scalia, worked with Brett Kavanaugh on the Clinton-Whitewater investigation under special counsel Ken Starr, and served as a deputy HHS administrator in the George W. Bush era, before becoming Eli Lilly’s top lobbyist. Azar, 52, is the type of corporate leader Republicans have long touted as capable of driving efficiencies in the unwieldy federal bureaucracy. Azar sought to shrink the CDC, an agency that has been on the chopping block throughout the Trump administration. Rolling Stone The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

DEC 14, 2017:  Policy analysts at the CDC were given a list of 7 words, including “evidence-based” and “science-based,” which should not be used in documents prepared for next year’s budget. Silencing Science Tracker.

 

JAN 1, 2018: Officials at the CDC informed staff that, due to inadequate funding, the global health security initiative would be “downsized.” Whereas the initiative previously worked across 49 countries, going forward, it would focus on 10 priority areas. Among the countries cut from the initiative were China, where the first cases of COVID-19 were reported. Public health experts have claimed that China’s removal from the initiative may have delayed the U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Silencing Science Tracker.

 

FEB 1, 2018: The CDC is dramatically downsizing its epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries because money is running out. Global health organizations said critical momentum will be lost if epidemic prevention funding is reduced, leaving the world unprepared for the next outbreak. The risks of deadly and costly pandemic threats are higher than ever, especially in low- and middle-income countries with the weakest public health systems, experts say. A rapid response by a country can mean the difference between an isolated outbreak and a global catastrophe. In less than 36 hours, infectious disease and pathogens can travel from a remote village to major cities on any continent to become a global crisis. “The world remains under-prepared to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease outbreaks, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberately released,” Admiral Ziemer wrote in a blog post before the meeting. “We recognize that the cost of failing to control outbreaks and losing lives is far greater than the cost of prevention.” The Washington Post, article CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak by Lena H. Sun @bylenasun.

 

FEB 9, 2018: President Trump signs bill that cuts $1.35 billion in funding for Prevention and Public Health Fund at the CDC. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. The CDC was forced to slash its efforts to prevent global disease outbreak by 80% as its funding for the program began to run out. The agency, at the time, opted to focus on 10 priority countries and scale back in others, including China. Also cut was the Complex Crises Fund, a $30 million emergency response pool that was at the secretary of state’s disposal to deploy disease experts and others in the event of a crisis. (The fund was created by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.) Overall in 2018, Trump called for $15 billion in reduced health spending that had previously been approved, as he looked at increasing budget deficits, cutting the global disease-fighting budgets of the CDC, National Security Council (NSC), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Health and Human Services (HHS) in the process. The effects of those cuts are being felt today. FORTUNE, Trump administration budget cuts could become a major problem as coronavirus spreads. by Chris Morris @MorrisatLarge.

 

FEB 12, 2018: The Trump administration’s FY2019 budget proposes to maintain funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH) at FY2017 levels, despite imposing additional responsibilities on the NIH, including establishing three new sub-institutes to take over functions currently performed by other HHS offices. Silencing Science Tracker.

 

FEB 13, 2018: The Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment warns of major pandemic risks. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

EARLY 2018: A 2018 survey conducted by the Union of Concerned Scientists of more than 63,000 scientific experts employed by the federal government found that across all agencies, the majority of federal scientists reported low morale, decreased job effectiveness, and decreased job satisfaction. At the CDC specifically, 48% of respondents agreed that “political interests hindered the ability of their [agency] to make science-based decisions.” One respondent at the CDC had the following to say: “Proposed funding cuts limits our [agency’s] capacity for responding to infectious disease overseas and domestically. These cuts don’t just affect our ability to prepare and respond at a federal level either. These will disproportionally affect smaller state and local health departments and grant funded programs.”  Forensic News Trump’s botched coronavirus response has been 3 years in the making by Adrienne Cobb. @forensicnewsnet.

 

MARCH 2018: Dr. Robert Redfield is tapped by the Trump administration to lead the CDC. An experienced virologist who worked on HIV/AIDS in the military, Redfield has no experience leading an agency. Redfield’s nomination is opposed by Sen. Patty Murray in a letter citing a “pattern of ethically and morally questionable behavior.” Murray urged the administration to “reconsider” the nomination because of “Dr. Redfield’s lack of public health expertise and his failure to embrace the science underscoring critical public health work.” Timeline: Coronavirus in America in Rolling Stone by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 21, 2018: The Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) opposes Redfield’s appointment as CDC director. CSPI president issues statement entitled CSPI Urges Administration Not to Appoint Dr. Robert Redfield, with History of Scientific Misconduct, as CDC Director stating: This appointment would be disastrous for at least three reasons.  First, he has no experience running a public health agency, and does not have the all-important relationships with state and local public health officials such experience would bring.  Second, based on work I conducted with Sidney Wolfe at Public Citizen in the mid-1990s, he has been credibly accused of scientific misconduct for exaggerating the benefits of a putative HIV vaccine, for which he was investigated by the military.  Third, he has supported a variety of policies related to HIV/AIDS that are anathema to the great majority of public health professionals: mandatory HIV testing, reporting of positive HIV results to public health authorities without the patient’s consent, and quarantining of HIV-positive individuals in the military. What one wants in a director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is a scientist of impeccable scientific integrity.  What one would get in Robert Redfield is a sloppy scientist with a long history of scientific misconduct and an extreme religious agenda.  We urge the administration not to appoint Dr. Redfield.

 

APRIL 10, 2018: Bolton fires Homeland Security Advisor, Tom Bossert who “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks.” Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response by @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MAY 7, 2018: The National Security Council’s director of medical and biodefense preparedness warns that pandemic flu is the top health security concern and that the country is not prepared for it. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MAY 8, 2018: The National Security Council removes Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer, the top official responsible for pandemic response and disbands the global health security team. He is not replaced. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. Admiral Ziemer abruptly left the administration, following a reorganization by then national security advisor John Bolton. Shortly before Ziemer’s departure, another former Trump official, Luciana Borio, told a conference marking the centennial of the 1918 flu pandemic that the threat of a new outbreak was a global health priority. “Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.” Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News.

 

MAY 10, 2018: The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack. The Washington Post article “Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly” by Lena H. Sun @bylenasun.

 

MAY 13, 2018: Why Trump’s new CDC director is an abysmal choice by Laurie Garrett, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Coming Plague. Redfield’s early engagement with the AIDS epidemic in the US in the 1980s and 90s was controversial. As an Army major at Walter Reed Medical Institute, he designed policies for controlling the disease within the US military that involved placing infected personnel in quarantine and investigating their pasts to identify and track possible sexual partners. Soldiers were routinely discharged and left to die of AIDS, humiliated and jobless, often abandoned by their families. In the 1980s Redfield worked closely with W. Shepherd Smith, Jr. and his Christian organization, Americans for a Sound AIDS/HIV Policy, or ASAP. The group maintained that AIDS was “God’s judgment” against homosexuals, spread in an America weakened by single-parent households and loss of family values.

Redfield wrote the introduction to a 1990 book, “Christians in the Age of AIDS,” co-written by Smith, in which he denounced distribution of sterile needles to drug users and condoms to sexually active adults, and described anti-discrimination programs as the efforts of “false prophets.”

 

MAY 18, 2018: Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio sends the president a letter saying the decision to cut funding for global health programs and disband the global health team at the National Security Council could cost American lives. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

SEPT 2018: The Trump administration fails to follow through with an Obama-era project designed to protect against medical supply shortages during pandemics. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

SEPT 5, 2018: HHS announced that it would use funds originally allocated to research and other programs to cover the costs of its Unaccompanied Alien Children program. A total of $266 million will be re-diverted, including $87.3 million originally allocated to the National Institutes of Health for cancer and other research. Silencing Science Tracker  HHS diverts funding from the CDC to pay for housing detained immigrant children. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 2019: The Trump administration’s focus on cutting costs through eliminating programs and terminating employees has taken a harsh toll on the ranks of scientists whose work informs government policy. In Trump’s first two years in office, over 1,600 federal scientists left government – a 1.5% drop compared with the 8% increase during Obama’s first two years. Many of these scientists voluntarily resigned due to the undervalued and diminished role of science reflected in administration policies. Forensic News Trump’s botched coronavirus response has been 3 years in the making by Adrienne Cobb. @forensicnewsnet.

 

JAN 29, 2019: The National Intelligence Worldwide Threat Assessment warns that the U.S. is vulnerable to a global pandemic. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. The Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, issued the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. intelligence community. Under the section of Human Security/Global Health, the report stated: “The United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or largescale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.” Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News; Politico Article America’s national security machine stares down a viral threat by Natasha Bertrand, Daniel Lippman, Meridith Mcgraw and Lara Seligman @politico @NatashaBertrand, @dlippman, @meridithmcgraw, @laraseligman.

 

FEB 6, 2019: NBC News reported that Trump, who doesn’t regularly read the daily intelligence summary prepared for him, is also participating in relatively few in-person briefings from his spy agencies. It’s the latest indication that Trump does not consistently rely on the information and analysis provided to him by the $80 billion a year U.S. intelligence-gathering apparatus. U.S. officials tell NBC News that in private Trump frequently questions the integrity and judgment of the intelligence officials who are giving him secret information. On Trump’s calendar, just 17 intelligence briefings in 85 days by Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner, Ken Dilanian @KenDilanianNBC and Courtney Kube @ckubeNBC.

 

MARCH 8, 2019: Brock Long FEMA Administrator leaves the Trump Administration. Every high-profile Trump administration departure @axios.

 

MARCH 11, 2019: The Trump administration’s FY2020 budget proposes to cut funding for HHS by 11.9% (compared to FY2019 levels). Funding for the National Institutes of Health, within HHS, would decline by 12.6% (compared to FY 2019 levels). Silencing Science Tracker. The uncertainty over funding for public health has discouraged some skilled professionals from staying in the federal government, according to Cyrus Shahpar, a physician who served at the CDC under Obama and worked on the agency’s global rapid-response team during the first year of the Trump administration. Shahpar said that rapid-response team shrank while he was at the agency as proposed CDC cuts drove some people away and a federal hiring freeze barred filling positions. The number of permanent CDC employees declined about 5 percent between December 2016 and March 2019, according to the most recent data published by the Office of Personnel Management. The Washington Post investigation entitled Trump says he can bring in coronavirus experts quickly. The experts say it is not that simple. By Beth Reinhard, @bethreinhard, Emma Brown, @emmersbrown and Neena Satija @neenareports.

 

APRIL 5, 2019: Scott Gottlieb FDA Commissioner leaves the Trump Administration. Every high-profile Trump administration departure @axios.

 

APRIL 7, 2019: Kirstjen Nielsen Secretary of Homeland Security leaves the Trump Administration. Every high-profile Trump administration departure @axios.

 

JUNE 14, 2019: President Trump signed an executive order requiring that all federal agencies cut the number of government advisory committees by a third. These panels are made up of outside scholars and specialists who come together to form a wellspring of knowledge and expertise that typical political officials often lack. Their loss not only impairs informed policy decisions, but also undermines the credibility of the government’s actions.  Forensic News Trump’s botched coronavirus response has been 3 years in the making by Adrienne Cobb. @forensicnewsnet.

 

JULY 2019: The Trump administration eliminates an American public health position designed to detect disease outbreaks in China. The CDC removes an American public health official stationed in Beijing within China’s disease control agency and was not replaced. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; Silencing Science Tracker.

 

JULY 2019: FEMA report includes pandemic warning. In a scenario contained within the 2019 National Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment report, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) predicted that a novel virus pandemic without a vaccine would lead to a serious shortage of medical supplies, place strain on hospitals and could result in an economic shutdown. Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News.

AUGUST 13-16, 2019: The Crimson Contagion 2019 Functional Exercise with federal, state, local, and tribal governments, hospitals, and private sector found that “The U.S. lacks sufficient domestic manufacturing capacity and/or raw materials for almost all pandemic influenza medical countermeasures, including vaccines and therapeutics, the needles and syringes needed to administer them, and personal protective equipment, including masks, needles, and syringes.” The exercise was based on a hypothetical scenario of a new influenza virus starting in China and spreading around the world. Materials for the event predicted that a pandemic of high severity could result in 110 million illnesses, 7.7 million hospitalizations, and 586,000 deaths in the United States. The New York Times David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT,  Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT, Eileen Sullivan @esullivanny, and Michael Crowley @michaelcrowley “Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded; ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline @procon_org.

 

AUGUST 15, 2019:  Dan Coats steps down as Director of National Intelligence. With the resignation of acting director Sue Gordon, Joseph Maguire, the leader of the National Counterterrorism Center, will become the acting Director of National Intelligence. Wikipedia

 

AUGUST 27, 2019: Trump again took funding from FEMA to instead support ICE activities: The Department of Homeland Security alerted Congress in July that the administration was diverting $155 million from FEMA’s disaster relief fund to pay for additional immigrant detention beds temporary hearing locations for asylum-seekers who have been forced to wait in Mexico. “Once again, this administration is endangering America by moving funds away from emergency management for their extremist border agenda,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) said.  Forensic News Trump’s botched coronavirus response has been 3 years in the making by Adrienne Cobb. @forensicnewsnet.

 

SEPT 2019: The Union of Concerned Scientists has recorded no fewer than 139 major attacks from the Trump administration on scientific integrity. For the Union’s Michael Halpern, the mindset was summed up by Sharpiegate in September 2019 when the White House redrew the path of Hurricane Dorian to include Alabama so that the president would not have to admit he made a mistake. “Sharpiegate was the harbinger of what’s happened with the pandemic,” Halpern said. The Guardian, Pandemic brings Trump’s war on science to the boil by Ed Pilkington @Edpilkington.

 

SEPT 2019: The Trump administration ends its funding for PREDICT, a program run by the United States Agency for International Development, that is designed to identify and prevent pandemics related to animal-borne viruses. The project was launched in 2009 and field work stopped in September 2019 as funding ran out. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

SEPT 15, 2019: The Council of Economic Advisers wrote in a report titled Mitigating the Impact of Pandemic Influenza through Vaccine Innovation that, “in a pandemic year, depending on the transmission efficiency and virulence of the particular pandemic virus, the economic damage would range from $413 billion to $3.79 trillion. Fatalities in the most serious scenario would exceed half a million people in the United States. Millions more would be sick, with between approximately 670,000 to 4.3 million requiring hospitalization.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline @procon_org.

 

SEPT 2019: A “study by the Council of Economic Advisers ordered by the National Security Council predicted that a pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish flu or the 2009 swine flu could lead to a half-million deaths and cost the economy as much as $3.8 trillion.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

SEPT 10, 2019: National Security Adviser John Bolton leaves the administration. Every high-profile Trump administration departure @axios.

 

OCT 2019: The Trump administration concludes a months-long simulation, code-named “Crimson Contagion,” designed to respond to a global influenza pandemic. The Department of Health and Human Services determines that the U.S. is underprepared, underfunded, and under-coordinated to fight an influenza-like pandemic. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

OCT 2019: The Trump Administration cuts funding for a government research program designed to recognize animal viruses that could infect humans and prevent pandemics. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

OCT 11, 2019: Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Kevin McAleenan, the fourth person to serve in that post during the Trump presidency, resigns.  Wikipedia.

 

NOV 13, 2019: Kevin McAleenan, Acting Homeland Security Secretary, leaves the administration. Every high-profile Trump administration departure @axios.

 

NOV 17, 2019: Possible first case of COVID-19 emerges in Hubei province, China.  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

NOV 2019: A commission on health security that included Republican and Democratic members of Congress warned that “the American people are far from safe.” The commission created by the Center for Strategic and International Studies called for the White House to reestablish “strong, coherent, senior-level leadership” on health security at the NSC and to invest more on improving health security in foreign countries. The Washington Post Investigation Trump says he can bring in coronavirus experts quickly. The experts say it is not that simple by Beth Reinhard, Emma Brown and Neena Satija @bethreinhard, @emmersbrown and @neenareports.

 

NOV 18, 2019: An “independent, bipartisan panel formed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that lack of preparedness was so acute in the Trump administration that the ‘United States must either pay now and gain protection and security or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and economic costs.’”  RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

LATE NOV—EARLY DEC 2019: U.S. intelligence agencies warn of a “cataclysmic” and “out-of-control” disease in Wuhan, China. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. The Pentagon’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) circulates a report identifying a contagion sweeping through Wuhan, China. NCMI bases its report on wire intercepts, computer intercepts, and satellite images. “Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,” a source tells ABC News (in April 2020). ABC News, Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November by Josh Margolin @JoshMargolin and James Gordon Meek @meekwire; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

DEC 4, 2019: Robert Kadlec, Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, testified before a congressional committee that, “An influenza pandemic poses a significant threat to global public health and to the security of the United States.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden with Background and Context @procon_org.

 

DEC 17, 2019: Dr. Stephen Hahn was sworn in as the Commissioner of the FDA.

 

DEC 27, 2019: A man in France, who is now the first known Covid-19 patient outside of China, goes to the emergency room with a fever and difficulty breathing. At the time, Covid-19 was still unheard of outside of China. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

DEC 28, 2019: “The disregard for expertise in the federal government is worse than it’s ever been,” said Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University, which has tracked more than 200 reports of Trump administration efforts to restrict or misuse science since 2017. “It’s pervasive.” “When we decapitate the government’s ability to use science in a professional way, that increases the risk that we start making bad decisions, that we start missing new public health risks,” said Wendy E. Wagner, a professor of law at the University of Texas at Austin who studies the use of science by policymakers. The New York Times article Science Under Attack: How Trump is Sidelining Researchers and Their Work by Brad Plumer @bradplumer and Coral Davenport @CoralMDavenpor.

 

DEC 30, 2019: ProMed posted an “urgent notice on the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause” issued by the Medical Administration of the Wuhan Municipal Health Committee. The ProMed alert included details from a report by Wuhan’s City Health Commission that the “South China Seafood Market in our city has seen patients with pneumonia of unknown cause one after another.” The Wuhan notice and the ProMed alert were the first details about the novel coronavirus made public in China and worldwide. Helen Branswell, an accomplished health journalist on the staff of STAT, a Boston-based news group that specializes in reporting on medicine, spotted the notice. “Hopefully this is nothing out of the ordinary, she tweeted on December 31. “But a @ProMED_mail posting about “unexplained pneumonias” in China is giving me #SARS flashbacks.” Modeshift article by Keith Schneider @modeshift.

 

DEC 31, 2019: Wuhan officials confirm treatment of dozens of cases of pneumonia with an unknown cause. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

JAN-FEB 2020: U.S. intelligence agencies issue  over a dozen detailed warnings  about the threat of the virus in the President’s Daily Brief, and issue classified reports about the virus; senior U.S. officials begin to form a task force. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

EARLY JAN 2020: Deputy national security advisor Matthew Pottinger receives a call from a longtime friend, a Hong Kong epidemiologist who informs him of a ferocious outbreak of a new virus similar to the SARS epidemic of 2003 had emerged in China. The call with the Hong Kong epidemiologist left Matthew Pottinger rattled. The outbreak had spread far more quickly than the government was admitting to, and it wouldn’t be long before it reached other parts of the world. His friend had a blunt message: You need to be ready. The virus, he warned, which originated in the city of Wuhan, was being transmitted by people who were showing no symptoms — an insight that American health officials had not yet accepted. In ensuing days, Pottinger held the view that the coronavirus problem was far worse than the Chinese government was admitting. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT,  David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT  Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 3, 2020: Robert Redfield, the CDC director, received a call from a counterpart in China, George F. Gao, the director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Gao told Redfield that a mysterious respiratory illness was spreading in Wuhan, a congested commercial city of 11 million people in the communist country’s interior. Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Josh Dawsey, @jdawsey1 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller. Gao, the director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, burst into tears. The New York Times The Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to Covid-19 by Michael D. Shear @shearm Abby Goodnough @abbygoodnough Sheila Kaplan @BySheilaKaplan Sheri Fink @sherifink Katie Thomas @katie_thomas and Noah Weiland @noahweiland. Redfield quickly relayed the disturbing news to Alex Azar, the secretary of HHS, the agency that oversees the CDC and other public health entities. Azar, in turn, ensured that the White House was notified, instructing his chief of staff to share the Chinese report with the National Security Council. Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 3, 2020: Though some sources claim the White House was notified of a potentially “cataclysmic event” as far back as November of 2019, the administration’s story is that it was first informed of the coronavirus on January 3, 2020, when Robert Redfield, Trump’s CDC head, received a phone call from China. Intelligence services began putting information about coronavirus in Trump’s Daily Brief. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

JAN 4, 2020:  Helen Branswell posted the first article in the American media about a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases in the Chinese city of Wuhan noting that Chinese officials were not being candid about what they know, and questioning the Chinese official assessment that the disease could not be transmitted human to human. Helen Branswell sounded the alarm only four days after China alerted WHO about the outbreak, three days after the closure of the Wuhan seafood market, and one day after Chinese officials briefed the CDC director. Writing for STAT, Branswell noted the possibility that the outbreak might be traced to a novel coronavirus. Some commentators argued the lack of clear answers “is reminiscent of China’s behavior during the 2002–2003 SARS outbreak.” Branswell closed by quoting UNC’s Professor Baric: “If the number of cases keeps increasing, then it becomes more and more of a global public health threat. The chance of [infected] people slipping through the screening platforms for international travel or travel elsewhere in China become greater as long as they don’t know what the pathogen is.” Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News; Modeshift article by Keith Schneider @modeshift.

 

JAN 6, 2020: The New York Times followed STAT with its own report on the Wuhan outbreak. “The cases have alarmed Chinese officials, who are racing to unravel the mystery behind them in a region where the memory of an outbreak of the dangerous respiratory disease known as SARS remains fresh,” wrote Times correspondents  Sui-Lee Wee and Vivian Wang. Modeshift article by Keith Schneider @modeshift.

 

JAN 6, 2020: The CDC issues a Level 1 travel advisory for Wuhan, China. Level 1 advisories tell travelers to “practice usual precautions.” It added: Travelers to Wuhan “should avoid living or dead animals, animal markets, and contact with sick people.” (Source) NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR @NPR.

 

EARLY JAN 2020: Intelligence officials begin offering ominous, classified warnings about the virus to Trump in the President’s Daily Brief. The warnings will persist into February. The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake.

 

EARLY JAN 2020: In a report to the director of National Intelligence, a State Department epidemiologist warns that the virus is likely to spread across the globe and could result in a pandemic, and the Defense Intelligence Agency’s National Center for Medical Intelligence comes to the same conclusion, per the New York Times. The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 8, 2020: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issues an alert advising that it “is closely monitoring a reported cluster of pneumonia of unknown etiology (PUE) with possible epidemiologic links to a large wholesale fish and live animal market in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China.” The Guardian ‘It will disappear’: the disinformation Trump spread about the coronavirus – timeline by @TeeMcSee @guardian.

 

JAN 9, 2020: China publicly identifies new “pneumonia-like” virus. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 10, 2020: Chinese officials announce the first known death from the new coronavirus. @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 10, 2020: The Deputy Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response and Director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”), Dr. Bright, an internationally recognized expert in the fields of immunology, therapeutic intervention, vaccine, and diagnostic development and one of the nation’s leading experts in pandemic preparedness and response, received an update from Dr. Ruben Donis, BARDA’s Deputy Director in the Influenza and Emerging Infectious Diseases Division, about the spread of the virus and Dr. Bright began pushing HHS leadership to obtain sequencing and virus samples from China, to no avail. In addition, Dr. Bright also began urgently pressing HHS officials to provide necessary resources to begin vaccine, drug and diagnostic development to combat COVID-19. Again, to no avail. Rather than deferring to Dr. Bright’s expertise and judgment and heeding his calls for urgent action, HHS leadership criticized him for his efforts and removed him from meetings going forward. Complaint at 16.

 

JAN 11, 2020: Chinese scientists publicly release the genetic sequence of COVID-19. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 12, 2020: The first novel coronavirus case was reported outside of China, in Thailand, raising levels of concern. Complaint.

 

JAN 13, 2020: The National Security Council set up a Policy Coordination Committee meeting for January 14, 2020, “to discuss developments associated with the novel corona virus circulating around South East Asia.” In response, Dr. Bright proposed an urgent agenda item for the meeting: “We need to get virus samples to USG colleagues ASAP. Sequences alone are insufficient for potential mcm development and assessment…. For national security, we need more.” Over the next several days, Dr. Bright met with Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and BARDA staff to discuss the outbreak and to review international reports regarding its spread. Dr. Bright repeatedly asked HHS Leadership to move quickly, hire more personnel, secure funding and obtain viruses to get started on medical countermeasures. His urgency was repeatedly met with seeming indifference by Dr. Kadlec who appeared to be focusing all of his attention and most of his ASPR resources on repatriating people from China and then from cruise ships with passengers infected by the Coronavirus. Complaint.

 

JAN 13, 2020:  Although it would not be discovered until nearly the end of the month, the first known traveler with coronavirus came to the U.S. on January 13. More would follow as the virus spread to the U.S. and globally and as confirmed cases in Wuhan, China increased, along with deaths. Public health screenings at a handful of the biggest international airports in the U.S. would not begin until after the arrival of at least two of those initial cases, one of which researchers later estimated led to the infection of hundreds of people. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), a nonpartisan independent watchdog, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

JAN 14, 2020: Robert Kadlec, HHS’s assistant secretary for preparedness and response, writes in his notebook, “Coronavirus!!!” According to the Washington Post, around this time, Kadlec “had instructed subordinates to draw up contingency plans for enforcing the Defense Production Act. … Aides were bitterly divided over whether to implement the act, and nothing happened for many weeks.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), a nonpartisan independent watchdog, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

JAN 15, 2020: An American departs Wuhan and flies back to the U.S. with COVID-19. Six days pass before this case is confirmed and made public. This will be the first confirmed case in the United States. A second person in China dies from COVID-19. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

MID JAN 2020: FDA chief Stephen Hahn asks HHS if he can start contacting companies about possible shortages of personal protective equipment and other equipment. HHS tells him no. That decision causes weeks of delay. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. “Azar told associates such calls would alarm the industry and make the administration look unprepared,” the Wall Street Journal reports. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MID JAN 2020: By mid-January, there was growing evidence of the virus spreading outside China. Deputy national security advisor Pottinger began convening daily meetings about the coronavirus. He alerted his boss, Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT,  David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

MID JAN 2020: U.S. diplomats in Wuhan return to the United States on chartered planes and they alert the State Department that the public health risk in the region is significant. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 17, 2020: “This is a serious situation. . . . [W]e believe the current risk from this virus to the general public is low. … The situation could indeed change quickly. Therefore, we are taking a cautious approach to this outbreak and we’re preparing ourselves to respond quickly to any new developments.”— Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, in a briefing with reporters. Transcript of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Response Telebriefing;  NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus by Tamara Keith. @tamarake.

 

JAN 17, 2020: The CDC implements health screenings in three U.S. airports for travelers coming from Wuhan, China. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. But academic studies concerning health screenings implemented in previous epidemics published prior to the coronavirus outbreak as well as academic studies of the health screenings and travel restrictions implemented during the coronavirus pandemic, concluded that airport screenings and travel restrictions are largely ineffective. For example, a study published on February 19, 2015 entitled Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection explained: Efforts to prevent the spread of SARS, Ebola and other disease outbreaks have included screening air passengers for infection prior to boarding, or immediately after arrival. In these situations, infrared thermometers are often used to check for symptoms of fever and passengers may be asked to fill out questionnaires to assess their risk of exposure to the disease. However, the effectiveness of these airport screenings is questionable. 1000s of air travelers have been screened during several recent disease outbreaks, but few disease cases were detected. There are many reasons why an infected individual may be missed in airport screens. Passengers who have recently been infected may not yet display any symptoms and some passengers may be able to hide a fever or other symptoms by taking medication. Even if an individual has a fever, infrared thermometers will only detect it about 70% of the time. Also, screening questionnaires may miss passengers who are infected if they lie about any possible exposure to the disease. Gostic KM, Kucharski AJ, Lloyd-Smith JO. Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection. Elife. 2015;4:e05564. Published 2015 Feb 19. doi:10.7554/eLife.05564.

 

JAN 18, 2020: Alex Azar tries to speak to President Trump about the outbreak for the first time. President Trump ignores the warning. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), a nonpartisan independent watchdog, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

JAN 18, 2020: According to the whistleblower complaint filed by Dr. Bright, former chief of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Agency in the Health and Human Services Department, he sent an email to Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary of health for preparedness and response. Bright asked Kadlec about convening the Disaster Leadership Group to coordinate government planning for the emerging COVID-19 outbreak. The whistleblower complaint states that Dr. Kadlec replied that he was “[n]ot sure if that is a time sensitive urgency.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline @procon_org.

 

JAN 20, 2020: The United States and South Korea each announce their first case of COVID-19 on the same day. Chinese officials also confirm for the first time that the new coronavirus is transmissible via human-to-human contact. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 20, 2020:  The WHO held an emergency call, attended by many HHS officials, during which it advised that “the outbreak is a big problem.” After the call, Dr. Bright and his team discussed the need to make HHS leadership aware of the urgent necessity for funding to combat the virus. By email dated January 20, 2020, Dr. Robert Johnson, Director of BARDA’s Division of Influenza and Emerging Infectious Diseases, asked Dr. Bright: “Is the ASPR (and hopefully through him) the S1 [Secretary Azar] aware of just how BARDA’s hands are tied due to lack of EID funding, and the precious time being lost?” Dr. Bright responded that that despite his request, Dr. Kadlec had still not held a Disaster Leadership Group (DLG). Later that day, the first known case of coronavirus was reported in the United States, ratcheting up the sense of alarm that an outbreak in the United States was imminent. Complaint.

 

JAN 21, 2020:  Brian Shuy, Dr. Kadlec’s Chief of Staff, emailed Dr. Bright and other BARDA officials requesting that they identify programmatic needs and estimate related costs. Dr. Bright and his staff responded that virus samples and funds were urgently needed and, once again, Dr. Bright pushed Dr. Kadlec’s staff to hold a Disaster Leadership Group (DLG). Complaint.

 

JAN 21, 2020:  The CDC announces the first confirmed U.S. case of COVID-19, a traveler who resided in the state of Washington who returned from Wuhan, China, six days earlier. “There are growing indications that limited person-to-person spread is happening. It’s unclear how easily this virus is spreading between people,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease, says. Messonnier announces that the CDC had finished development of its own test for detecting coronavirus just days before and “used this test to quickly confirm our first U.S. case.” The CDC announces it is adding “entry health screening at two more airports—Atlanta (ATL) and Chicago (ORD)” and raising its travel health warning to level 2 for travelers to Wuhan. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), a nonpartisan independent watchdog, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

JAN 21, 2020:  Trump was out of the country for this critical stretch, taking part in the annual global economic forum in Davos, Switzerland. He was accompanied by a contingent of top officials including national security adviser Robert O’Brien, who took a trans-Atlantic call from an anxious Azar. Azar told O’Brien that it was “mayhem” at the White House. Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller.

 

JAN 21, 2020: Politico reports that President Trump may expand his controversial Muslim travel ban to Belarus, Myanmar, Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Sudan, and Tanzania. An announcement was expected as early as January 27, the three-year anniversary of the original order, which targeted several majority-Muslim nations. Politico Trump weighs travel ban expansion in coming days by Nahal Toosi @nahaltoosi and Anita Kumar @anitakumar01.

 

MID-LATE JAN 2020: Representative Dan Crenshaw produced a viral video concerning events and media coverage that occurred in mid to late January, 2020 entitled “Debunking the Left’s Covid-19 Narrative” that, among other things, falsely claimed that Speaker Pelosi proposed the NO BAN act on January 31, 2020 in response to the Trump Administration’s coronavirus travel restrictions when, in fact, the NO BAN act was introduced in April, 2019 in response to the Muslim travel ban. Contrary to Crenshaw’s assertion, the disclosure of the Trump Administration’s plans to expand the Muslim ban to more countries on January 21 was the impetus to bring the NO BAN act to the House floor. Despite a mountain of evidence demonstrating that the airport screenings and travel restrictions would not be effective that was available prior to the announcement of the screenings and restrictions, Rep. Crenshaw argues that the imposition of the screenings and travel restrictions demonstrate that the Trump Administration took the virus seriously and the administration’s actions were both decisive and effective. Despite the fact that research papers establishing that the administration’s actions were ineffective and did not contain the spread of the coronavirus were available prior to the publication of his video on April 17, 2020, he states that the “first Coronavirus case entered the United States from Wuhan on January 15th but luckily the administration was on top of it. A couple of days later on January 17, they were already implementing airport screenings from flights coming in from Wuhan. But, still, even about a week later our mainstream media was still promoting things like this. Doctors saying, ‘Hey this isn’t a big deal, not more dangerous than the flu.’  Nevertheless,  President Trump did implement that travel restriction on January 31st.” Rep. Crenshaw puts up the following text from an article in USA Today posted on February 1, 2020 by @megankhenry and @grace_hauck: The coronavirus has infected at least eight people in the United States, with Massachusetts confirming the most recent case Saturday. But something more dangerous and much deadlier has been infecting millions of Americans. “You are much more likely to have influenza,” said Dr. Nora Colburn, an infectious-disease physician at Ohio State University’s Wexner Medical Center. “For a typical Ohioan or American, that would be the bigger concern.” Then the headline from the article appears: “Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier, more widespread.” But Rep. Crenshaw omits the following text from the same article: “That’s not to say the coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan in December, shouldn’t be taken seriously. The number of confirmed cases in China and 23 other countries has risen to at least 14,380, according to data from the World Health Organization, surpassing the number in the 2002-03 outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome. Chinese officials report 304 deaths. WHO on Thursday declared the coronavirus a global health emergency, and the Trump administration declared Friday that the coronavirus is a public health emergency, ordering any U.S. citizens coming back from the center of the outbreak in China to be quarantined for two weeks. . . . Unlike the flu, there is no vaccine for the coronavirus right now, and no one knows exactly how it is spread.”

 

Next, the video flashes a headline from the LA Times: “Should you panic about the coronavirus from China? Here’s what the experts say.” The video does not show any of the text from the article posted on January 24, 2020 by Emily Baumgaertner @Emily_Baum which states: “It’s a virus scientists have never seen before. Health officials don’t know exactly where it came from, but it has traveled more than 7,000 miles since it was discovered late last month in central China. New infections are confirmed every day despite an unprecedented quarantine. The death toll is rising, too. . . . But the CDC isn’t running the show, and questions still abound about global preparedness. On Thursday, WHO officials said the outbreak did not rise to the level of “a global health emergency,” but that “it may yet become one.” Dr. Guan Yi is almost certain that it will. Yi, an infectious disease expert at the University of Hong Kong, told reporters that even the drastic quarantine measures affecting 36 million people in and around Wuhan won’t be enough to keep the coronavirus from spreading because the Chinese government acted too late.”

 

Rep. Crenshaw’s video then displays a headline from The New York Times Who Says It’s Not Safe to Travel to China? But fails to mention that it is an opinion piece published on February 5, 2020 by Rosie Spinks @rojospinks, the global tourism reporter for @skift. The video does not include any text from the opinion piece which says: “Respiratory infections, however, know no borders. The virus has spread regardless of extreme measures taken by governments around the world, which include the cancellation of flights, the shutting down of borders and the issuance of travel advisories usually reserved for conflict zones. . . .Valid arguments may exist for shutting down the world to travelers originating in China — and shutting down China to the world — as a reasonable public health response. . . But what has motivated the response from governments? It doesn’t appear to be evidence. Measures like screening at airports, quarantining cruise ships or flights with confirmed cases and isolating communities at the center of an outbreak can be effective, said Erin Sorrell, an assistant research professor at Georgetown University who studies emerging infectious diseases. However, she and other experts say the available evidence suggests that total border shutdowns are not an effective means of containment of respiratory viruses. Resources are better used, she argued, treating sick patients and developing vaccines and other countermeasures.”

 

The video goes on to say that the same day that president Trump announced that travel restrictions on January 31st, “Nancy Pelosi proposed the NO BAN ACT which would actually stop president Trump from implementing the lifesaving travel restrictions that he did implement.” Rep. Crenshaw’s video is false and misleading. The NO BAN ACT was, in fact, proposed on April 10, 2019. Democrats in Congress, led by Rep. Judy Chu (CA-27) in the U.S. House of Representatives and Sen. Chris Coons (DE) in the U.S. Senate, introduced the National Origin-Based Antidiscrimination for Nonimmigrants (No Ban) Act, as companion bills H.R. 2214 and S. 1123 in response to the Trump Administration’s Muslim travel bans. National Immigration Law Center FAQ: The No Ban Act.  According to an article in @just_security  by Harsha Panduranga @harshwords222, counsel in the Brennan Center’s Liberty and National Security program, the basic idea of the National Origin-Based Anti-discrimination for Non-immigrants (NO BAN) Act is to make sure that presidential orders to bar or restrict people from entering the United States are the product of proof rather than prejudice. As now interpreted by the Supreme Court, Section 212(f) of the Immigration & Nationality Act (INA) broadly authorizes the president to bar people from entering the U.S. when he finds that doing so would be in the national interest. The NO BAN Act amends the INA to require such restrictions be supported by credible facts, are of a defined duration, and are necessary to address specific acts that threaten the safety of the American public, human rights, democracy, or international stability. Further, under the bill, a ban may only be used if less severe policy options would not work, and if it is crafted to affect no more people than is essential to accomplish its purpose.

 

According to an article in The Washington Post, Dan Crenshaw’s viral defense of Trump’s coronavirus response isn’t all it’s cracked up to be by @AaronBlake, Pelosi didn’t propose the No Ban Act on Jan. 31. The bill had been introduced by another member a year ago. Nor did she take the action in response to the China restrictions; she had announced days earlier the bill would be taken up in response to reports previewing Trump’s expanded ban on travel from some majority-Muslim countries. What’s more, the No Ban Act wouldn’t “stop President Trump from implementing the lifesaving travel restrictions.” In fact, while the act requires more significant and documented justification for travel bans, it affirms a president’s authority in such cases. Per the language of the bill, if the administration “determines … that the entry of any aliens or any class of aliens into the United States would undermine the security or public safety of the United States or the preservation of human rights, democratic processes or institutions, or international stability, the President may temporarily … suspend the entry of such aliens or class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants or … impose any restrictions on the entry of such aliens that the President deems appropriate.”

JAN 22, 2020:  China closes off the city of Wuhan. Trump received his first question about the coronavirus in an interview on CNBC while in Davos. Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller. When asked, in the CNBC interview, whether he is worried about the pandemic, President Trump states, “No, we’re not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China.” The reporter asks a follow up question, “Do you trust that we’re going to know everything we need to know from China?, to which the president replies, “I do. I do. I have a great relationship with President Xi.” Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 22, 2020:  HHS Secretary Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.” Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields. One questionable decision, three sources say, came that month, after the White House announced it was convening a coronavirus task force. The HHS role was to muster resources from key public health agencies: the CDC, FDA, National Institutes of Health, Office of Global Affairs and the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller. Harrison decided, the sources say, to exclude FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn from the task force. “He said he didn’t need to be included,” said one official with knowledge of the matter.

Reuters Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force by Aram Roston @AramRoston Marisa Taylor @Reuters.

 

JAN 22, 2020:  Senator Tom Cotton sounds alarm. “Once again, a deadly virus is emanating from China,” tweeted Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton. He also drew flak for airing a conspiracy theory that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was developed in a bioweapon laboratory in Wuhan, although that theory is still doing the rounds in some circles. According to The Washington Post, U.S. Intelligence was circulating reports in January and February about the pandemic threat. According to one official, “Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in the government were — they just couldn’t get him to do anything about it. The system was blinking red.” Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News.

 

JAN 23, 2020:  Dr. Kadlec finally convened a Disaster Leadership Group (DLG) meeting. In the meeting, Dr. Bright emphasized BARDA’s urgent need for virus samples and a major infusion of funds for development of diagnostics, drugs and vaccines. He also expressed concerns about the shortage of N95 masks, which he correctly anticipated would cause a health care crisis among first responders and health care providers. Disturbingly, Dr. Kadlec plowed through the abbreviated meeting, addressing topics in a perfunctory manner and paying short shrift to the concerns that Dr. Bright raised. Complaint.

 

JAN 23, 2020:  Dr. Bright attended a meeting with HHS senior leadership across all agencies to brief Secretary Azar on COVID-19. Anticipating the urgency and magnitude of the threat and knowing the lead times needed to develop new drugs, diagnostics, and vaccines, Dr. Bright pressed for urgent access to funding, personnel, and clinical specimens, including viruses, which he emphasized were all critically necessary to begin development of lifesaving medicines needed in the likely event that the virus spread outside of Southeast Asia. Secretary Azar and Dr. Kadlec responded with surprise at Dr. Bright’s dire predictions and urgency, and asserted that the United States would be able to contain the virus and keep it out of the United States. Secretary Azar further indicated that the CDC would look at the issue of travel bans to keep the virus contained. Dr. Bright responded that virus “might already be here. We just don’t have the tests to know one way or the other.” Dr. Bright’s comments were met with skepticism and were clearly not welcome. Nonetheless, he continued to press his point that the situation was dire and that money was urgently needed to develop diagnostics and drugs to combat the virus when it eventually spread to the United States. Secretary Azar then questioned Dr. Bright about BARDA’s funding to combat the virus, to which Dr. Bright replied that BARDA had no funds available for emerging infectious diseases to meet the challenges of this pandemic, and that BARDA would be forced to re-direct funds from existing projects until new funding was made available. Secretary Azar also asked the representative from the Assistant Secretary for Financial Resources (“ASFR”) about availability of funding for the response. It was evident from Secretary Azar’s reaction that this topic had not yet been raised at senior HHS levels. Complaint.

 

JAN 23, 2020:  Chinese officials take the drastic step of shutting down Wuhan. “That was like, whoa,” a senior U.S. official involved in White House meetings later told The Post. “That was when the Richter scale hit 8.” The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake.

 

JAN 24, 2020:  A study published by the Lancet suggests the virus may be carried by people without symptoms. The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake.

 

JAN 24, 2020:  President Trump thanks Chinese President Xi for his transparency and effort in tackling the coronavirus. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 26, 2020: Senior Chinese health officials state that the coronavirus is infectious during its incubation period – before symptoms show – making the virus harder to contain, the BBC reports. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 26, 2020: The U.S. confirms five cases of the new virus, all among people who traveled to the Chinese city at the center of the outbreak. U.S. News Timeline of Key Events in the Spread of the New Coronavirus.

 

JAN 26, 2020: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) calls on HHS to declare coronavirus a public health emergency to access $85 million in federal funding. “Should the outbreak get worse they will need immediate access to critical federal funds that at present they remain unable to access,” Schumer says in a press release. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

LATE JAN 2020: The warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies increased in volume toward the end of January and into early February, said officials familiar with the reports. By then, a majority of the intelligence reporting included in daily briefing papers and digests from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA was about Covid-19, said officials who have read the reports. The Washington Post, U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic by  Shane Harris, @shaneharris Greg Miller @gregpmiller, Josh Dawsey @jdawsey1and Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae.

 

LATE JAN 2020: Beginning in late January, CNN – the network Trump often belittles as “fake news” – began covering the coronavirus story in detail, while it got significantly less play on Fox News, the President’s preferred news outlet. One exception was on February 15, when US planes evacuated Americans living in China to US airbases, a story that portrayed Trump as taking decisive action on coronavirus. It’s not until March 12, a day before Trump declared a national emergency and the day most major sporting leagues in the US announced indefinite closures, that Fox News began reporting the coronavirus as heavily as CNN. MSNBC’s pattern of reporting is close to CNN’s. Media Cloud Coverage of COVID-19 and Political Partisanship – comparing across nations by Fernando Bermejo, Luigi Reggi, Simona Tiribelli, Ethan Zuckerman @media_cloud.

 

JAN 27, 2020: Senator Murray and 30 other  Democratic Senators write a letter to HHS Secretary Azar requesting updates about the coronavirus response  and  diagnostic testing capacity. The letter stated,  “We write to express concern about the rapidly evolving 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), to urge your continued robust and scientifically driven response to the situation, and to assess whether any additional resources or action by Congress are needed at this time. A quick and effective response to the 2019-nCoV requires public health officials around the world work together to share reliable information about the disease and insight into steps taken to prevent, diagnose, and treat it appropriately.”

 

JAN 27, 2020: The National Security Council convened a meeting on short notice on the afternoon of Jan. 27. The Situation Room was standing room only, packed with top White House advisers, low-level staffers, Mr. Trump’s social media guru, and several cabinet secretaries. There was no checklist about the preparations for a possible pandemic, which would require intensive testing, rapid acquisition of protective gear, and perhaps serious limitations on Americans’ movements. Instead, after a 20-minute description by Mr. Azar of his department’s capabilities, the meeting was jolted when Stephen E. Biegun, the newly installed deputy secretary of state, announced plans to issue a “level four” travel warning, strongly discouraging Americans from traveling to China. The room erupted into bickering. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT,  David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

JAN 27, 2020: White House aide raises alarm. Joe Grogan, the head of the White House domestic policy council, tells the acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and others in a meeting that the fight against coronavirus would dominate public life for months and “the administration needed to take the virus seriously or it could cost the president his re-election,” according to a Washington Post report. The Guardian ‘It will disappear’: the disinformation Trump spread about the coronavirus – timeline by @TeeMcSee @guardian.

 

JAN 27, 2020: Acting Chief-of-Staff Mick Mulvaney meets with other senior officials about how the Trump administration is handling the virus. The President’s Coronavirus Task Force begins daily meetings. Officials are alarmed by the absence of the FDA Commission, Dr. Stephen Hahn on the task force, which they believe hampers coordination between the FDA, CMS, and commercial labs on testing. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 27, 2020:  Joe Biden Op-Ed in USA Today: The outbreak of a new coronavirus, which has already infected more than 2,700 people and killed over 80 in China, will get worse before it gets better. Cases have been confirmed in a dozen countries, with at least five in the United States. There will likely be more….To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come sooner or later. Pandemic diseases are a prime example of why international cooperation is a requirement of leadership in 2020. Diseases do not stop at borders. They cannot be thwarted by building a wall. We cannot keep ourselves safe without helping to keep others safe as well and without enlisting the help of other nations in return. And here’s the truth — the United States must step forward to lead these efforts, because no other nation has the resources, the reach or the relationships to marshal an effective international response.

 

JAN 27, 2020: Scientific American and STAT @statnews published an article by Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell entitled Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New  Coronavirus warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people. “Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

 

JAN 27, 2020: Vox reported that after President Trump announced plans to expand his travel Muslim travel ban, Speaker Pelosi issued a statement that the House will hold a vote on

the National Origin-Based Anti-discrimination for Nonimmigrants (NO BAN) Act, which would repeal Trump’s travel ban on citizens of seven countries and limit the president’s authority to issue such sweeping bans in the future. It would also strengthen existing prohibitions on religious discrimination with respect to visa applications guaranteed by the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) — what immigrant advocates have praised as a means of protecting the rights of American Muslims. The INA currently bans discrimination in the issuance of visas only on the basis of “race, sex, nationality, place of birth and place of residence.” There is no provision prohibiting religious discrimination, which made it more difficult for immigrant advocates to argue that the travel ban was unlawful. The bill seeks to correct this by amending the INA to require that any travel ban be temporary, based on credible evidence, subject to congressional oversight, and be created only in response to specific actions foreign entities have taken to threaten the US. The bill also states that a ban must also advance a compelling government interest in the least restrictive way possible. Vox The House will soon vote on a bill to repeal Trump’s travel ban — as he gears up to expand it by Nicole Narea @nicolenarea.

 

JAN 27, 2020: Speaker Pelosi issues a Statement on Three Years Since Trump Announced Muslim Travel Ban stating, “Three years ago, in a stunning act of callousness and discrimination, President Trump and his Administration issued an outrageous travel ban, targeting majority-Muslim nations and undermining our values, our security and our Constitution. Today, reports indicate that the Administration is once again preparing to expand its dangerous travel ban, threatening key international relationships and jeopardizing our ability to fight terrorism and extremism at home and abroad.  President Trump and his Administration’s continued disdain for our nation’s national security and our founding ideals of liberty and justice dishonor our proud immigrant heritage and the diversity that strengthens and enriches our communities.  Despite the Administration’s hateful policies and dangerous rhetoric, this fundamental truth remains: immigrants make America more American. House Democrats continue to stand opposed to President Trump’s cruel, un-American travel ban in all of its iterations.  In the coming weeks, the House Judiciary Committee will mark up and bring to the Floor the NO BAN Act to prohibit religious discrimination in our immigration system and limit the President’s ability to impose such biased and bigoted restrictions.”

 

JAN 28, 2020: CDC expands health screenings for coronavirus to 20 airports. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expanding its enhanced health screening to 20 airports as part of its efforts to identify people with the new coronavirus who are traveling into the United States, the agency said in a press conference today. Article in The Verge by Nicole Wetsman @NicoleWetsman. In interviews, multiple travelers who arrived after the screening was expanded said they received only passing scrutiny, with minimal follow-up. “I was surprised at how lax the whole process was,” said Andrew Wu, 31, who landed at Los Angeles International Airport on a flight from Beijing on March 10. “The guy I spoke to read down a list of questions, and he didn’t seem interested in checking out anything.” Mr. Wu, who has had no symptoms and has not become ill, said he was told to stay inside for 14 days when he landed in Los Angeles. He said he received two reminder messages the next day by email and text, but no further follow-up.

New York Times Investigation 430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced by Steve Eder, @SteveEder Henry Fountain, @henryfountain Michael H. Keller, Muyi Xiao @muyixiao and Alexandra Stevenson @jotted.

 

JAN 28, 2020:  Azar says at a press briefing, “We’ve been monitoring this virus and preparing a response since back in December. … The President and I have been speaking regularly about this outbreak, and I have been speaking with the senior officials at HHS and the White House multiple times each day since the outbreak began to represent an international threat. The President is highly engaged in this response, and closely monitoring the work we’re doing to keep Americans safe.” Washington state’s two Democratic senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, demand that Azar provide them “with the latest information regarding the severity of the disease, the country’s capacity to diagnose cases, what steps were being taken to prepare U.S. health care workers, what screening systems were in place at U.S. airports, the status of a novel coronavirus vaccine.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO) The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

JAN 28, 2020: “Red Dawn” email chain. On the email chain entitled “Red Dawn” hosted by Duane Caneva, the chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security, medical experts expressed alarm about the growing outbreak. Dr. Carter Mecher, a senior medical adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs, warned that WHO and CDC were behind the curve. In the Red Dawn email chain, he writes to colleagues in the administration: “I’m seeing comments from people asking why WHO [World Health Organization] and CDC seem to be downplaying this.” He adds that “no matter how I look at this, it looks [to] be bad. If we assume the same case ascertainment rate as the spring wave of 2009 H1N1 [swine flu], this looks nearly as transmissible as flu (but with a longer incubation period and greater Ro). The projected size of the outbreak already seems hard to believe, but when I think of the actions being taken across China that are reminiscent of 1918 Philadelphia [during the influenza epidemic], perhaps those numbers are correct. And if we accept that level of transmissibility, the [case fatality rate] is approaching the range of a severe flu pandemic.”  James Lawler (University of Nebraska), who advised presidents Bush and Obama, followed with this sarcastic email:
“Great Understatements in History:
Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow — “just a little stroll gone bad”
Pompeii— “a bit of a dust storm”
Hiroshima — “a bad summer heatwave”
AND
Wuhan — “just a bad flu season.”

The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake; Blinking Red: 25 Missed Pandemic Warning Signs by @KevinADavies Kevin Davies, PhD in Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News.

 

JAN 28, 2020: More than a month before the first coronavirus-related death in the US — Tucker Carlson spent a large portion of his show discussing the subject: “All of a sudden the Chinese coronavirus is looking like a real threat, that could be a global epidemic or even a pandemic. It’s impossible to know. But, it’s the kind of thing that could be very serious – very serious.” Misinformation During a Pandemic published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago bfi.uchicago.edu. @BeckerFriedman.

 

JAN 29, 2020: President Trump tweeted: “Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!” The Washington Post Timeline: The more than 50 times Trump has downplayed the coronavirus threat by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake and  JM Rieger @RiegerReport.

 

JAN 29, 2020: Economic Advisor Peter Navarro, sends President Trump and White House colleagues a memo urgently recommending that President Trump impose a travel ban on China. The memo includes a detailed economic analysis of the potential for loss of economic activity as well as loss of human life. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response. @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. Despite Mr. Trump’s denial weeks later, he was told at the time about the Jan. 29 memo by Peter Navarro, laying out in striking detail the potential risks of a coronavirus pandemic: as many as half a million deaths and trillions of dollars in economic losses. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT, David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

JAN 29, 2020:  A study published by The New England Journal of Medicine on NEJM.org  confirmed human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus and 2019-nCoV infected pneumonia (NCIP). The researchers analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. Although the majority of the earliest cases were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market and the patients could have been infected through zoonotic or environmental exposures, it is now clear that human-to-human transmission has been occurring and that the epidemic has been gradually growing in recent weeks. Our findings provide important parameters for further analyses, including evaluations of the impact of control measures and predictions of the future spread of infection. We estimated an R₀ of approximately 2.2, meaning that on average each patient has been spreading infection to 2.2 other people. In conclusion, we found that cases of NCIP have been doubling in size approximately every 7.4 days in Wuhan at this stage. Human-to-human transmission among close contacts has occurred since the middle of December and spread out gradually within a month after that. Urgent next steps include identifying the most effective control measures to reduce transmission in the community. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia.

 

JAN 30, 2020:  The World Health Organization’s director general declares the new coronavirus outbreak to be a “public health emergency of international concern.” This is the sixth such declaration by the WHO since 2005. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirmed two cases of coronavirus in the country, but said, “There is no reason to create social alarm or panic.”  The state of Washington declares a Level 1 Emergency and activates its emergency response center. The CDC reports the first known instance of person-to-person spread in U.S.—the spouse of the second confirmed U.S. case. German researchers publish a report on the first supposed confirmed case of asymptomatic transmission in the New England Journal of Medicine. It is cited by a CDC official the next day. In less than a week, the study is found to have fundamental flaws (though subsequent studies find that the virus can be transmitted when an infected person is asymptomatic).  The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

JAN 30, 2020:  In the evening, Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff,  and Mr. Azar called Air Force One as the president was making the final decision to go ahead with the restrictions on China travel. Mr. Azar was blunt, warning that the virus could develop into a pandemic and arguing that China should be criticized for failing to be transparent. Mr. Trump rejected the idea of criticizing China, saying the country had enough to deal with. And if the president’s decision on the travel restrictions suggested that he fully grasped the seriousness of the situation, his response to Mr. Azar indicated otherwise. Stop panicking, Mr. Trump told him. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT,  David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

JAN 30, 2020: After the World Health Organization declares the outbreak a global emergency because the number of cases spikes more than tenfold in a week, President Trump offers some of his most extensive comments on the virus to date during an appearance at a Michigan manufacturing plant. “Hopefully, it won’t be as bad as some people think it could be, but we’re working very closely with them (China) and with a lot of other people and a lot of other countries,” he said. “We think we have it very well under control.” Trump described the handful of U.S. cases as a “very little problem” and said those people were “recuperating successfully.” “We think it’s going to have a very good ending for us. That I can assure you.” U.S News Timeline. According to Mother Jones, at an event in Michigan, Trump says, “We’re working very strongly with China on the coronavirus—that’s a new thing that a lot of people are talking about….We think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

JAN 30, 2020: In sum, on one day, (1) A research paper published by The New England Journal of Medicine confirms the existence of asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus. (2) Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says the virus will be good for the U.S. economy in a Fox News interview. (3) Secretary Azar, along with Mick Mulvaney, calls Trump aboard Air Force One and gives the president a blunt warning that the virus could morph into a pandemic, the president responds that Azar is being alarmist. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake.

 

JAN 30, 2020: Ron Klain offered a prescient prognosis of what was to come in The Atlantic Monthly:  “The U.S. government has the tools, talent, and team to help fight the coronavirus abroad and minimize its impact at home. But the combination of Trump’s paranoia toward experienced government officials (who lack ‘loyalty’ to him), inattention to detail, opinionated rejection of science and evidence, and isolationist instincts may prove toxic when it comes to managing a global-health security challenge. To succeed, Trump will have to trust the kind of government experts he has disdained to date, set aside his own terrible instincts, lead from the White House, and work closely with foreign leaders and global institutions—all things he has failed to do in his first 1,200 days in office.” RAWSTORY, detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

JAN 31, 2020: Researchers write in the Lancet that “independent self-sustaining outbreaks [of 2019-nCoV] in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases.” Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, says during a briefing, “There has been an increasing number of reports of person-to-person spread. And now most recently, a report from the New England Journal of Medicine of asymptomatic spread.” Dr. Messonnier, adds, “While we still don’t have the full picture and we can’t predict how this situation will play out in the U.S., the current situation, the current scenario is a cause for concern.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

JAN 31, 2020: The Trump Administration issues a Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirus stating “that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to restrict and suspend the entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the People’s Republic of China, excluding the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” Eleven categories of aliens were excluded from the restrictions. But academic studies concerning travel restrictions implemented in previous epidemics published prior to the coronavirus outbreak as well as studies of the travel restrictions implemented during the coronavirus pandemic, concluded that travel restrictions are largely ineffective.  For example, a 2011 study on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic published in the journal PLOS One found that travel restrictions creating a 40% reduction in air traffic to and from Mexico, the origin of the influenza strain, caused a three-day or less delay, on average, in the first imported cases reaching other countries. It said that “no containment was achieved by such restrictions.” Even assuming an unlikely 90% air traffic reduction, the study said, “the resulting delay would be on the order of 2 weeks.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg. Similarly, in a 2012 study of  the effectiveness of travel restrictions in a flu pandemic published in BMC Infectious Diseases by researchers in Hong Kong estimated that “imposing a 99% air travel restriction” would delay the peak of a new influenza pandemic in Hong Kong “by up to two weeks.” But, “[a]ntivirals and hospitalization were found to be more effective on attack rate reductions than travel restrictions,” the study said. Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg. And a 2014 review of 23 studies on the impact of travel restrictions on the spread of influenza found overall they have “only limited effectiveness,” the degree of which varied depending on the restrictions themselves, epidemic size, transmissibility of the virus and other geographic considerations. The review, published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization, said: “In isolation, travel restrictions might delay the spread and peak of pandemics by a few weeks or months but we found no evidence that they would contain influenza within a defined geographical area.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.  The review entitled Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review also explained that a study set in the USA revealed similar findings – e.g. a delay in spread of 2–3 weeks if travel restrictions were 99% effective and implemented in conjunction with border restrictions that prevented the entry of infected travelers. Travel restrictions alone could delay spread by 1 week but only if implemented within 2 weeks of the first case. In one simulation, border controls preventing 99.9% of cases entering any given country delayed epidemic spread by up to 35 days. Another study in the USA presented analogous results – e.g. a 90% restriction on long-distance flights led to delays in the epidemic peak that ranged between a few days and a few weeks. Effectiveness of travel restrictions decreased as the transmissibility of the strain increased; travel restrictions reduced the incidence of new cases by less than 3%. According to a time-series analysis in the USA, a 50% restriction in air travel during the 2001–2002 influenza season would have delayed the peak mortality associated with novel strains of seasonal influenza by 16 days compared with the timing of the peak in previous years.

 

JAN 31, 2020: CDC director Redfield says, “The risk at this time to the American public is low.” In move he will trumpet long afterward, Trump shuts down travel of foreign nationals who’ve been in China. The restriction comes two weeks after travelers stricken with the virus appear to have spread it in the U.S. An estimated 300,000 people have arrived from China in the previous month. There were only 7,818 confirmed cases around the world at the end of January, according to figures released by the World Health Organization — but it is now clear that the virus was spreading uncontrollably.  Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller; Timeline: Coronavirus in America in Rolling Stone by Tim Dickinson @7im. Subsequent analysis by the New York Times determined that 43,000 people traveled from China to the United States after the restrictions were put in place. The Washington Post What Trump did about coronavirus in February by Philip Bump @pbump.

 

JAN 31, 2020: Experts agree that Trump’s limitations on travel from China, in late January, and from parts of Europe, six weeks later, made a bad situation worse. The Chinese “ban” was a further irritant to the Chinese government (despite Trump’s ongoing personal praise of Xi Jinping), and because it wasn’t absolute, some 40,000 U.S. citizens and others flew into American airports from China, with minimal testing, screening, or quarantine provisions. The ban might even have worsened the situation, by impelling Americans (who might have been exposed) to get back while they still could. The Atlantic The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything by James Fallows @JamesFallows.

 

JAN 31, 2020: As Factcheck.org  reported, on the same day that the Trump administration announced restrictions on travel from China, Biden,  campaigning in Iowa, said that as the pandemic unfolds, Americans “need to have a president who they can trust what he says about it, that he is going to act rationally about it.” He added, “This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia – hysterical xenophobia – and fearmongering to lead the way instead of science.”  Factcheck.org Trump, Biden Spin China Travel Restrictions by Rem Rieder @remrieder.

 

JAN 31, 2020: Biden tells reporters in Iowa that “science” must “lead the way,” adding: “We have, right now, a crisis with the coronavirus.” The Washington Post Trump vs. Biden on coronavirus: The timeline is utterly damning by Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS.

 

JAN 31, 2020: The United States declares a public health emergency, triggering “emergency use authorizations.” Although this process is designed to speed the development of diagnostic tests and intended to keep the quality of testing high, it would eventually lead to delays in the development of coronavirus tests at clinical labs. The policy discouraged labs from developing in-house testing because it required the approval of the FDA to do so. The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing April 18, 2020.

 

FEB 1, 2020: The first identified tweet about the coronavirus by Joe Biden: “We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science — not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline @procon_org. The Washington Post Trump vs. Biden on coronavirus: The timeline is utterly damning by Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS.

 

FEB 1, 2020: Trump golfs at Trump International in West Palm Beach, Florida. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 1, 2020: As of this date, a total of 3,099 persons on 437 flights were screened; five symptomatic travelers were referred by CDC to local health care providers for further medical evaluation, and one of these persons tested positive for 2019-nCoV. CDC Study entitled Initial Public Health Response and Interim Clinical Guidance for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak — United States, December 31, 2019–February 4, 2020.

 

EARLY FEB 2020: Citing economic concerns, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin resists calls supported by public health officials, including Anthony Fauci, to respond more forcefully to the novel coronavirus. Matthew Pottinger, the deputy national security adviser, argues for restricting the flow of travelers from Italy and other nations in the European Union that were emerging as hot spots, which Fauci supports. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 2, 2020: The New York Times published an article Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say by Donald G. McNeil Jr., a science and health reporter specializing in plagues and pestilences. The article reports that the Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts. The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States. It is “increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit devoted to fighting epidemics.

 

FEB 2, 2020: President Trump restricts entry into the United States from China. The suspension comes after 45 other countries implement travel restrictions on China and includes exemptions that allow tens of thousands of passengers to enter the United States. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

The New York Times calculated that at least 430,000 people arrived in the United States on direct flights from China since Jan. 1, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after Trump imposed restrictions. Moreover, screening proceedings of travelers from China have been uneven and inconsistent, the Times said. The Washington Post Trump’s claim that he imposed the first ‘China ban’ by Glenn Kessler @GlennKesslerWP.

 

FEB 2, 2020: The Washington Post publishes an article Past epidemics prove fighting coronavirus with travel bans is a mistake by Jennifer B. Nuzzo @JenniferNuzzo,

an epidemiologist with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security. Dr. Nuzzo explains that banning travel from China is unlikely to keep the new coronavirus out of the United States, especially as the geographic footprint of the epidemic continues to rapidly expand. This virus is simply moving too quickly and spreading too quietly for us to assume that we know where in the world all cases are. The current approach in most countries to finding cases is to screen travelers with connections to Wuhan or greater China. Though these efforts are helping to educate travelers and improve our surveillance for cases, they are by no means able to keep all cases of the virus out of a country because we will not find cases that originate elsewhere. It is increasingly likely that the virus will spread from other parts of the world, and there could already be additional unrecognized cases in the United States.

With increasing signs that the new coronavirus epidemic has grown beyond the point of containment, it is time to think about how best to mitigate its impacts. If leaders use their influence in support of evidence-based measures, rather than ones that risk increasing the social and economic tolls of the epidemic, it will be helpful to the coronavirus response. Governments must resist the temptation to ban travel from affected areas, while also working with airlines to ensure that their decisions to cancel flights don’t disrupt the transport of essential goods and prevent epidemic responders from traveling to where they are needed. Political leadership is needed to expedite the development of diagnostic tools, vaccines and therapeutics to diagnose, treat and prevent additional infections. U.S. hospitals and health departments will need additional resources to respond to the growing number of coronavirus cases in the United States. Each of these actions will require funding and bipartisan political support to pass supplemental funding legislation. Let’s focus on what we know works, rather than what is more likely to harm.

 

FEB 2, 2020: Speaking to Fox’s Sean Hannity, Trump said, “We pretty much shut it down coming from China.” In fact, as Ron Klain would mention to Congress a few days later, over 100,000 people* had come to the States from China in the month before the ban, so “the horse is already out of the barn.” (*the Washington Post put this number even higher, at 300,000) RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 3, 2020: In an interview with Amy Goodman on Democracy Now, Laurie Garrett, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Coming Plague explained that John Bolton’s dissolution of the pandemic response office was done out of spite:  “it was a big mistake by the Trump administration to obliterate the entire infrastructure of pandemic response that the Obama administration had created. Why did he do it? Well, it certainly wasn’t about the money, because it wasn’t a heavily-funded program. It was certainly because it was Obama’s program.” Pressed by Goodman to provide more detail about the Global Security Office, Garrett continued: “It was a special division inside the National Security Council, a special division inside of the Department of Homeland Security…and collaborating centers in HHS, headquarters in Washington, the Office of Global Health Affairs, and the Commerce Department, Treasury Department. But what Obama understood, dealing with Ebola in 2014, is that any American response had to be an all-of-government response, that there were so many agencies overlapping, and they all had a little piece of the puzzle in the case of a pandemic…What the Obama administration realized was that you can’t corral multiple agencies and things from private sector as well as public sector to come to the aid of America, unless you have some one person in charge who’s really the manager of it all. And in his case, it was Ron Klain, who had worked under Vice President Biden. And he was designated, with an office inside the White House, to give orders and coordinate all these various things….Well, that was all eliminated. It’s gone. And now they’re hastily trying to recreate something.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 3, 2020: “We expect to find additional cases of novel coronavirus infection in the United States. We expect to see more cases of person-to-person spread among close contacts.” The CDC’s Messonnier, said in a briefing with reporters. She echoed Redfield, saying the risk to Americans was “currently low” and that the focus was on travelers from places where the disease was spreading. Transcript for CDC Telebriefing: CDC Update on Novel Coronavirus; NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus by Tamara Keith @tamarake.

 

FEB 3, 2020: U.S. Army estimates coronavirus could kill as many as 150,000 Americans in a worst-case scenario. Timeline: Coronavirus in America in Rolling Stone by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 3, 2020: U.S. Representative Derek Kilmer (WA-06) and U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), the top Democrat on the Senate health committee, led 48 bipartisan lawmakers from both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in a letter calling on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to distribute rapid diagnostic tests for the novel coronavirus as quickly as possible, prioritizing states with confirmed cases of the virus to receive the first available test kits. The letter follows the confirmation of 11 cases of coronavirus in the U.S., including 1 diagnosed case in Washington state.

 

FEB 3, 2020: In an article entitled “Why a Travel Ban Won’t Stop the Coronavirus” published in the National Interest, a prominent foreign policy magazine, Erin James, a postdoctoral associate at Yale Institute for Global Health and Saad B. Omer (@SaadOmer3), the director of the Yale Institute for Global Health and a professor of epidemiology of microbial diseases at the Yale School of Public Health explained that Studies examining the utility of travel bans in reducing the spread of influenza found limited effectiveness of this policy. In particular, in case of a virus with an R₀ of 1.9 or higher, international travel bans have to be highly restrictive (i.e. discontinuation of over 90% of air travel) to have any impact. Even then, these restrictive measures only slightly delay the spread of the infection and have a very small impact on the magnitude of outbreaks. Preliminary data points toward this coronavirus being more transmissible than influenza; with an R₀ of 2.0 to 3.1. This evidence suggests that the travel ban will not prevent the coronavirus from spreading within the US. Even a stricter ban might delay its onset by a few weeks at most. The Center for the National Interest, a non-partisan non-profit organization with a bi-partisan board of directors and advisory council, publishes The National Interest @TheNatlInterest.

 

FEB 4, 2020: The CDC receives the first “emergency use authorization” from the FDA and prepares to distribute its test more widely. The CDC will ship out about 200 test kits to labs nationwide. It is the only test kit design available in the United States. What we know about delays in coronavirus testing by The Washington Post.

 

FEB 4, 2020: The Wall Street Journal posted an op-ed by Trump’s former FDA commissioner, Scott Gottlieb, titled “Stop a U.S. Coronavirus Outbreak Before It Starts,” in which he stressed the importance of ramping up testing for the virus so that public health officials would know where to focus their efforts. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 4, 2020:A preprint not peer reviewed yet study entitled RISK OF 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IMPORTATIONS THROUGHOUT CHINA PRIOR TO THE WUHAN QUARANTINE by researchers in the US, France, and China stated as of January 31, 2020, there were 192 reported fatalities and 3215 laboratory-confirmed cases in Wuhan, 8576 additional cases spread across over 300 cities in mainland China, and 127 exported cases in 23 countries spanning Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania. The rapid global expansion, rising fatalities, unknown animal reservoir, and evidence of person-to-person transmission potential resemble the 2003 SARS epidemic and raise concerns about global spread. Based on the timing of exported cases reported outside of China, we estimate that among cases that were infected by January 12th, only 9.82% may have been confirmed in Wuhan by January 22nd.

 

FEB 4, 2020: Food and Drug Administration approves CDC coronavirus test, but only CDC is authorized to run tests, creating rationing and delays. Azar asks Office of Management and Budget for $2 billion to replenish national stockpile with respirator masks and other supplies. White House will cut the request to $500 million. Timeline: Coronavirus in America in Rolling Stone by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 4, 2020: U.S. intelligence officials brief members of the Senate intelligence committee on the outbreak. The “warnings were not highly classified or all that specific, drawn largely from diplomatic wires and publicly reported information,” according to the New York Times, citing three sources. This and a follow-up briefing “were focused on the readiness of the United States for a potential epidemic, but also touched on the possible economic fallout.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 4, 2020: In his State of the Union Address, President Trump said, “Protecting Americans’ health also means fighting infectious diseases. We are coordinating with the Chinese government and working closely together on the coronavirus outbreak in China. My administration will take all necessary steps to safeguard our citizens from this threat.”

 

FEB 5, 2020: The Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) sends a letter to private health labs stating:

FDA has announced that the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of CDC’s 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel is now in place. Kits are available for ordering immediately through the International Reagent Resource (IRR). CDC has projected that public health laboratories will have kits in their hands this week.

Just like any other test, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires that the performance of a test made available under an EUA is verified in every individual laboratory that will use that test. This means that upon receiving the 2019-nCoV kits from CDC public health laboratories will need to complete a limited verification process to ensure that the assay produces accurate results in their laboratory to meet their regulatory obligations. The amount of time required for this process varies by laboratory based on their verification policies and procedures. We estimate that verification may take up to one to two weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/documents/2019nCoV_CSTE_APHL_EUA-Verification-Letter.pdf

 

FEB 5, 2020: The CDC begins shipping test kits for the coronavirus to select labs. It is soon discovered that one of the elements in these test kits is faulty. The U.S. would struggle to get up to speed on testing capability, limiting who could be tested and obscuring the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in the country. (Source)  NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR.

 

FEB 5, 2020: Azar drafted a supplemental request for more than $4 billion, a sum that OMB officials and others at the White House greeted as an outrage. Azar arrived at the White House that day for a tense meeting in the Situation Room that erupted in a shouting match, according to three people familiar with the incident. A deputy in the budget office accused Azar of preemptively lobbying Congress for a gigantic sum that White House officials had no interest in granting. Azar bristled at the criticism and defended the need for an emergency infusion. But his standing with White House officials, already shaky before the coronavirus crisis began, was damaged further. White House officials relented to a degree weeks later as the feared coronavirus surge in the United States began to materialize. The OMB team whittled Azar’s demands down to $2.5 billion, money that would be available only in the current fiscal year. Congress ignored that figure, approving an $8 billion supplemental bill that Trump signed into law March 6. But again, delays proved costly. The disputes meant that the United States missed a narrow window to stockpile ventilators, masks and other protective gear before the administration was bidding against many other desperate nations, and state officials fed up with federal failures began scouring for supplies themselves. Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller.

 

FEB 5, 2020: Three experts at a House subcommittee hearing questioned the effectiveness of the travel restrictions imposed on February 2, 2020. The prepared Testimony of Jennifer B. Nuzzo @JenniferNuzzo to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs stated “I am an Associate Professor in the Departments of Environmental Health and Engineering and Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. My colleagues and I at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security have spent close to twenty years analyzing infectious disease outbreaks, including epidemics and pandemics, in attempt to better understand the resources, practices and policies that are needed to prevent, mitigate and contain them.  We must now contemplate the possibility of pandemic spread of 2019 nCoV and must plan for how we will mitigate the impacts of the virus. In my view, it is highly likely that the United States will continue to see cases of 2019 nCoV, despite the recently implemented travel bans and quarantines. Though there are still important unknowns, this epidemic bears a number of similarities to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. It is essential that we plan for the possibility that the 2019 nCoV virus will follow a similar pattern to the 2009 pandemic. If the virus continues to circulate and cases keep climbing, the probability of community-wide transmission will increase. Responding to a novel virus for which no specific therapy or vaccine yet exists leaves only the possibility of mitigating the disease spread. What measures we take to find cases and mitigate disease spread will be determined by the observed severity and the availability of resources. If there continue to be concerns about the severity of the virus, our priority should be to rapidly detect and isolate of cases and identify and monitor their close contacts for signs of illness. Government leadership is needed to facilitate the development of medical countermeasures, including diagnostics. Enhanced diagnostic tools are essential to the use of both vaccine and therapeutics, yet comparatively less attention has been given to the need to accelerate the development of new diagnostic tools. With evidence mounting of continued global spread despite aggressive actions being taken by countries, it is becoming clear that a change of course may be needed. Instead of trying to implement measures that likely will not work to prevent the virus from entering out country, we should focus on efforts that we know will help to lessen its impacts, such as ensuring that federal, state and local health agencies, and hospitals and health clinics have the resources they need to diagnose, isolate and safely treat cases, and to promote feasible approaches to community mitigation that are most likely to mitigate disease spread. For this we will need government leadership and additional investments.” During her testimony,  Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, explained, “Simply put, this virus is spreading too quickly and too silently, and our surveillance is too limited for us to truly know which countries have active transmission and which don’t. The virus could enter the U.S. from other parts of the world not on our restricted list, and it may already be circulating here. We often see, when we have emerging disease outbreaks, our first instinct is to try to lock down travel to prevent the introduction of virus to our country. And that is a completely understandable instinct. I have never seen instances in which that has worked when we are talking about a virus at this scale. Respiratory viruses like this one, unlike others–they just move quickly. They are hard to spot because they look like many other diseases. It’s very difficult to interrupt them at borders. You would need to have complete surveillance in order to do that. And we simply don’t have that.” Factcheck.org, The Facts on Trump’s Travel Restrictions by Robert Farley [Not on Twitter]; Homeland Preparedness News Experts warn quarantines, travel bans may be ineffective in combating coronavirus by Claudia Adrien @Claudia_Adrien @homelandprep.

 

FEB 5, 2020: At the House subcommittee hearing on the coronavirus Ron Klain, White House Ebola response coordinator under the Obama administration, took issue with the characterization of the travel restrictions as a travel “ban.” “We don’t have a travel ban,” Klain said. “We have a travel Band-Aid right now. First, before it was imposed, 300,000 people came here from China in the previous month. So, the horse is out of the barn. “There’s no restriction on Americans going back and forth,” Klain said. “There are warnings. People should abide by those warnings. But today, 30 planes will land in Los Angeles that either originated in Beijing or came here on one-stops, 30 in San Francisco, 25 in New York City.” Factcheck.org, The Facts on Trump’s Travel Restrictions by Robert Farley [Not on Twitter]; Homeland Preparedness News Experts warn quarantines, travel bans may be ineffective in combating coronavirus by Claudia Adrien @Claudia_Adrien @homelandprep.

 

FEB 5, 2020: Democratic senators met with administration officials and proposed emergency funding “for essential preventative measures, including hiring local screening and testing staff, researching a vaccine and treatments and the stockpiling of needed medical supplies.”

HHS secretary Azar declined the funding, claiming it wasn’t needed. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 5, 2020:  Senator Chris Murph @ChrisMurphyCT Tweets: Just left the Administration briefing on Coronavirus. Bottom line: they aren’t taking this seriously enough. Notably, no request for ANY emergency funding, which is a big mistake. Local health systems need supplies, training, screening staff etc. And they need it now. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 5, 2020:  Tucker Carlson emphasized the large death toll due to COVID-19 in China and the emergence of COVID-19 cases in the US: “The Chinese coronavirus continues to spread tonight. The death toll now exceeding 500, that’s the official number. In the United States, there are now 12 confirmed cases of it. Meanwhile, alarming videos trickling out of China indicate the virus is far from under control.” Misinformation During a Pandemic published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago bfi.uchicago.edu. @BeckerFriedman.

 

FEB 6, 2020: WIRED published an article titled Travel Bans and Quarantines Won’t Stop Coronavirus which explained that the US announced travel restrictions on Friday [Jan 31] but some public health experts worry that a ban won’t work—and could create new problems because travel bans and quarantines haven’t worked to contain other recent outbreaks. “I don’t think we’ve seen compelling evidence that travel bans work at all, and they’re less likely to work for respiratory viruses like this, because they move too quickly,” says Jennifer Nuzzo, @JenniferNuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the coauthor of a prescient report on preparing for “high-impact” respiratory disease pandemics. As for the current outbreak, researchers suspect that it’s too late for travel restrictions to have any effect. A preprint—so not peer reviewed yet—by researchers in the US, France, and China says that so many people passed through the travel hub of Wuhan before the disease was officially detected that at least 128 other cities are already at higher risk of 2019-nCoV showing up there too. WIRED, Travel Bans and Quarantines Won’t Stop Coronavirus by Adam Rogers @jetjocko @WIRED.

 

FEB 6, 2020: A study published in Eurosurveillance, Europe’s journal on infectious disease surveillance, epidemiology, prevention and control, entitled Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) concluded that exit or entry screening at airports for initial symptoms, via thermal scanners or similar, is unlikely to prevent passage of infected travelers into new countries or regions.  The study explained that the key goal of syndromic screening at airports – to prevent infected travelers from entering countries or regions with little or no ongoing transmission – is only achievable if the rate of asymptomatic infections that are transmissible is negligible, screening sensitivity is almost perfect, and the incubation period is short. Based on early data from Li et al., 2019-nCoV appears to have a shorter incubation period than severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and a higher rate of asymptomatic infections. Under generally conservative assumptions on sensitivity, we find that 46 of 100 infected travelers will enter undetected. Entry screening is an intuitive barrier for the prevention of infected people entering a country or region. However, evidence on its effectiveness remains limited and given its lack of specificity, it generates a high overhead of screened travelers uninfected with the targeted pathogen. For example, when entry screening was implemented in Australia in response to the 2003 SARS outbreak, 1.84 million people were screened, 794 were quarantined, and no cases were confirmed. While some cases of 2019-nCoV infection have been identified through airport screening in the current outbreak, our estimates indicate that likely more infected travelers have not been detected by screening. Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travelers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)… Due to the duration of the incubation period of 2019-nCoV infection, we find that exit or entry screening at airports for initial symptoms, via thermal scanners or similar, is unlikely to prevent passage of infected travelers into new countries or regions where they may seed local transmission. Quilty Billy J, Clifford Sam, CMMID nCoV working group2, Flasche Stefan, Eggo Rosalind M. Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Euro Surveill. 2020;25(5):pii=2000080. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080.

 

FEB 6, 2020: The first death in the US from a confirmed case of Covid-19 is retroactively confirmed to have occurred in early February by the Santa Clara County medical examiner following an autopsy of the victim. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

FEB 7, 2020: Asked if he thinks China is covering up the coronavirus, Trump says, “No. China is working very hard….They’re working really hard, and I think they are doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with the World [Health] Organization. CDC also. We’re working together.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 7, 2020:  In a letter to Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, four Democratic Senators express “concern that the Trump Administration’s annual proposed funding cut for pandemic preparedness and response efforts could threaten the government’s ability to effectively combat the spread of the deadly virus.” The letter states:

We write to express concern regarding the Trump Administration’s previous attempts to cut funding for infectious disease and pandemic preparedness and response and to urge you to fully fund such efforts in your fiscal year 2021 proposed budget, as the world addresses the current outbreak of novel Coronavirus. As of today, the virus has infected over 28,000 individuals, causing over 500 fatalities across the globe. Here in the United States, the total number of infections has increased to 12 individuals in six states, including two human-to-human transmissions. It is vital that the federal government has the resources available to respond to this growing threat and protect the American people. The Trump Administration has repeatedly proposed budget cuts to the offices that spearhead emerging infectious disease and pandemic preparedness and response. The President’s fiscal year 2020 budget would have cut over $4.5 billion to select offices that combat pandemics, a reduction of nearly 20% from fiscal year 2019 levels. Such reductions, if proposed in the upcoming fiscal year 2021 budget and enacted, would severely limit the federal government’s capacity to respond to emerging viral and biological threats, as well as to contain and minimize the spread of the current novel Coronavirus outbreak. Just last week, the Department of Health and Human Services notified Congress that it may need to reallocate over $136 million to be able to continue response efforts to the novel Coronavirus, indicating the current response demands additional resources. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 8, 2020: One of the first CDC test kits arrived in a Federal Express package at a public health laboratory on the east side of Manhattan. By then, the virus had reached the United States, and the kits represented the government’s best hope for containing it while that was still possible.

For hours, lab technicians struggled to verify that the test worked. Each time, it fell short, producing untrustworthy results. That night, they called their lab director, Jennifer Rakeman, an assistant commissioner in the New York City health department, to tell her it had failed. “Oh, s—,” she replied. “What are we going to do now?” The Washington Post Investigation Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help by  Shawn Boburg, @ShawnBoburg Robert O’Harrow Jr., @robertoharrow Neena Satija @neenareports and Amy Goldstein @goldsteinamy.

 

FEB 8, 2020: When lab technicians for New York City’s health department ran the test on samples that contained the virus, they saw on their computer screens a logarithmic curve sloping upward, indicating the virus was present. The problem was, they saw something similar when they ran the test on distilled water that contained no trace of the virus. When they finally gave up that evening, the technicians called their director, Rakeman. Shortly before midnight, she relayed the bad news in an email to local health authorities. “The issue will need to be investigated and could result in significant impact to testing availability at the CDC and across the country until the issue is resolved,” she wrote. The Washington Post Investigation Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help by  Shawn Boburg, @ShawnBoburg Robert O’Harrow Jr., @robertoharrow Neena Satija @neenareports and Amy Goldstein @goldsteinamy.

 

FEB 8, 2020: Additional CDC test kits arrive at labs in New York, Nebraska, Colorado, Minnesota and elsewhere. By the end of the day, lab directors share bad news: They aren’t working properly. Through the weekend, lab directors share notes of the test and start to realize “this could be really bad.” The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing April 18, 2020.

 

FEB 8, 2020: Scott Becker is the executive director of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, the umbrella group that represents these labs and helps them interface with the CDC. On the morning of February 8th, a Saturday, his cellphone began blowing up with messages from member labs. “I started to see this string of the problems, and I thought, ‘Oh, my God, this can’t be happening,’” Becker says. “To me, it was the same moment of ‘Where were you on 9/11?’ because of the enormity of what we knew was coming. If this test had a problem, we were weeks behind.” He was stung by the realization that “we were not going to be able to contain this.” In interviews with Rolling Stone, FDA officials accused the CDC of providing incomplete and misleading information, of downplaying the number of public labs that were unable to run the test, and of signaling to the FDA that the CDC would be able to fix the problem on its own. A CDC representative, in turn, claimed that the FDA slowed the CDC’s response by throwing up redundant regulatory hurdles. The FDA would ultimately conclude that the “CDC did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol” and that a “manufacturing issue” — believed to be contamination at the CDC’s lab — rather than a design defect, was responsible for the flawed results. Rolling Stone The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster by Tim Dickinson @7im. An investigation later determined the CDC facilities that assembled the kits violated sound manufacturing practices, resulting in contamination of one of the three test components used in the highly sensitive detection process, the scientists said.

The cross contamination most likely occurred because chemical mixtures were assembled into the kits within a lab space that was also handling synthetic coronavirus material. The scientists also said the proximity deviated from accepted procedures and jeopardized testing for the virus. The Washington Post separately confirmed that Food and Drug Administration officials concluded that the CDC violated its own laboratory standards in making the kits. The substandard practices exposed the kits to contamination. The Washington Post Investigation Contamination at CDC lab delayed rollout of coronavirus tests by David Willman [Not on Twitter]. According to an investigation by the New York Times, the F.D.A., which oversees laboratory tests, sent Dr. Timothy Stenzel, chief of in vitro diagnostics and radiological health, to the C.D.C. labs to assess the problem, several officials said. He found an astonishing lack of expertise in commercial manufacturing and learned that nobody was in charge of the entire process, they said. Problems ranged from researchers entering and exiting the coronavirus laboratories without changing their coats, to test ingredients being assembled in the same room where researchers were working on positive coronavirus samples, officials said. Those practices made the tests sent to public health labs unusable because they were contaminated with the coronavirus, and produced some inconclusive results. The New York Times C.D.C. Labs Were Contaminated, Delaying Coronavirus Testing, Officials Say by Sheila Kaplan @BySheilaKaplan.

 

FEB 8, 2020: The CDC issues a press release reminding public health laboratories that they will not able to test for nCoV until they complete their test performance verification processes:

Please note that, even though the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, public health laboratories will not be immediately ready to test for nCoV until they complete their test performance verification processes.

For more information, see the joint communication issued by the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE).

Formerly, U.S. diagnostic testing for 2019-nCoV was only conducted at CDC. However, with the EUA determination and the pursuant distribution of the tests, 2019-nCoV diagnostic testing can take place at laboratories designated by CDC. These U.S. labs are qualified and certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high-complexity tests. These labs include 115 U.S. state and local public health laboratories and Department of Defense (DoD) laboratories. CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel will not be available in U.S. hospitals or primary care settings.

Lab Update: Updated Information about the Emergency Use Authorization for the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel.

 

FEB 8, 2020: At 2:00 p.m. on a Saturday, Dr. Bright met with Mr. Navarro at the White House. Dr. Bright found Mr. Navarro to be deeply engaged in the issues confronting the United States in responding to the rapidly approaching pandemic. Mr. Navarro clearly shared Dr. Bright’s concerns about the potential devastation the United States would face from the coronavirus and asked Dr. Bright to identify the supply chain and medical countermeasures most critical to address at that time in order to save lives. Dr. Bright emphasized the need to secure N95 masks and to ramp up mask production. He also informed Mr. Navarro about other actions that were urgently needed to develop diagnostic tools, drugs, and ultimately a vaccine, to combat the virus. In the short run, Dr. Bright urged Mr. Navarro to take immediate action to increase the mask supply, amass Remdesivir, and fund and initiate a “Manhattan Project” for vaccine development. Unlike Secretary Azar, Dr. Kadlec and other members of HHS leadership who dismissed Dr. Bright’s assessments and urgent requests and excluded Dr. Bright from key meetings, Mr. Navarro asked good questions and was prepared to take prompt action to address this impending health crisis. Mr. Navarro clearly recognized that Dr. Bright was unable to get any traction with HHS and was, to Dr. Bright’s great relief, prepared to act. Complaint.

 

FEB 9, 2020: In a memo, which Mr. Navarro sent through President Trump’s Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney, and President Trump’s National Security Advisor, Robert O’Brien, he identified three actions to be undertaken “IMMEDIATELY:” 1) immediately halt the export of N95 masks and ramp up U.S. production of masks; 2) secure all existing doses of Remdesivir and all bulk materials to make more and enter into a contract with Gilead to purchase all additional doses as they are produced; and 3) immediately fund and initiate a “Manhattan Project” for vaccine development. Complaint.

 

FEB 9, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 12:54PM, Dr. Lawler, an infectious disease doctor at University of Nebraska, who served as a member of the Homeland Security Council for President George W. Bush,  sends an email  to the group: “I think we also mostly agree that without dramatic [NPI we] can expect 30-40% infection rate by end of community epidemic – and even with dramatic NPI [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions e.g. lockdowns], that total may only be slightly reduced. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 9, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 8:29PM Dr. Eva Lee, an American operations researcher who applies combinatorial optimization and systems biology to the study of healthcare decision making at Georgia Tech, emailed Dr. James Lawler, Dr. Carter E. Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA and others. Dr. Lee’s email stated:

Flu vs 2019 – Perhaps some simple statistics may put people in the right perception:

Flu In US: Roughly 26 millions American affected, 200,000 hospitalization, and about 34,000 deaths. So it is 8.1% infectivity, 0.7 % hospitalization (of those infected), and 0.13 % mortality.

2019 – in Hubei (11million): 16,902 reported confirmed cases, 3,400 severe /critical conditions, 699 deaths. That relates to 0.15 % infection (city isolated entirely within 4-5 weeks), 20.1% hospitalization, and 4% CFR [Case Fatality Rate]. Even when factoring in all uncertainties, it’s roughly 0.15 – 0.5% infection, 10-20% hospitalization, and

1.7%-4% mortality. That’s over 10-30 times more deadly than seasonal flu. Moreover, this is only a lower bound because the government basically shut down and isolated the entire infected zone. I think this gives people a sense of risk. It is not to make them panic, but to prepare citizens. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 10, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 7:10AM, Dr. Eva Lee emails Dr. Carter Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA, Dr. James Lawler, an infectious disease doctor at University of Nebraska, Dr. Duane Caneva, DHS Chief medical officer, Col. Matthew Hepburn, M.D., DARPA program manager at the Department of Defense and others. Dr Lee explained that the spread of the coronavirus aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship “also re-enforces the notion that NPI [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions], as in social distancing has to begin now, not later– cannot prepare the future by acting in the future we must rolling it out now. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 10, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 7:21AM, Dr. Carter Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA, responds: “Eva, below is our review of the cruise ship outbreak. The case count aboard cruise ship is now up to 136. This is unbelievable. . . Over a span of 21days (from Jan 20-Feb 10), this outbreak has expanded to 136 confirmed cases. That is a prevalence of 3.7% over the span of 3 weeks. That is unbelievable. But go back and compare the dynamics of the [Covid-19] outbreak to the spring wave of H1N1, this outbreak is even faster. We are so far behind the curve. I would drop almost everything we are now doing and prepare for implementing TLC [Targeted Layered Containment]  (NPIs) [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions]. ” The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 10, 2020: The National Security Council Policy Coordination Committee met and directed Dr. Kadlec and HHS leadership to implement Mr. Navarro’s recommendations. Complaint

 

FEB 10, 2020: At a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, Trump says, “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 10, 2020: The Trump administration’s FY2021 budget proposes to cut funding for HHS by 10% (compared to FY2020 levels). Funding for the National Institutes of Health, within HHS, would decline by 6.5% (compared to FY 2020 levels). Silencing Science Tracker.

 

FEB 10, 2020: The Trump administration’s initial proposals for the budgets for emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases at CDC — a key player in the fight against coronavirus — have consistently been lower than what was spent the previous year. The administration proposed $61.7 million less in 2018 than 2017; $96.4 million less in 2019 than in 2018; $114.4 million less in 2020 than in 2019; and $85.3 million less in 2021 than 2020. But Congress reject the administration’s budget proposal and passed bills that not only exceeded what Trump requested on emerging infections but also exceeded what had been spent the previous year. PolitiFact Did Donald Trump fire pandemic officials, defund CDC? by Louis Jacobson @loujacobson and Victoria Knight @victoriaregisk.

FEB 10, 2020: Trump downplays threat to U.S.: “The virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in.” Trump White House unveils 2021 budget request, including an $85 million cut (13 percent) for the CDC’s Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases program, and a $25 million cut (3 percent) to its Public Health Preparedness and Response. Seattle Flu Study appeals to CDC for permission to test existing flu swabs for coronavirus. The request gets tangled in CDC and FDA red tape. Timeline: Coronavirus in America in Rolling Stone by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 11, 2020: Trump holds a rally in El Paso. He does not mention the coronavirus. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 11, 2020: Biden goes on “Morning Joe” and excoriates Trump for claiming the coronavirus will disappear in the warm weather, crossing himself while doing so, and adding: “You couldn’t make it up.” The Washington Post Trump vs. Biden on coronavirus: The timeline is utterly damning by Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS.

 

FEB 11, 2020:  Ars Technica, Latin for the “art of technology,” a trusted source for technology news and policy analysis, published an article titled Amid coronavirus outbreak, Trump proposes slashing CDC budget by Beth Mole @BethMarieMole.  The article explained that the president’s budget cuts funding for infectious-disease responses, including a 13 percent cut to programs under the category of “emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases.” (Zoonotic infectious diseases are those that spread from animals to people, of which the novel coronavirus is one.) This category includes cuts to programs addressing antibiotic-resistant infections, food safety, and healthcare-associated infections. Additionally, Trump proposes a 10 percent cut to “public health scientific services,” which includes funding for health statistics, surveillance, epidemiology, and informatics activities. There’s also a 3 percent cut to “public health preparedness and response” programs and a nearly 7 percent cut to global health programs. Areas of the CDC’s budget that Trump proposed increasing included programs for influenza planning and response, tick-borne diseases, HIV/AIDS, and the opioid epidemic. But overall, the CDC’s 2021 discretionary budget authority under Trump’s proposal would be roughly $5.56 billion, down $1.27 billion (or 18.6 percent) from enacted 2020 funding.

 

FEB 11, 2020: Forbes reports Trump Proposes 16% Cut To CDC As Global Number Of Coronavirus Infections And Deaths Rise by Lisette Voytko @lisettevoytko @Forbes.

 

FEB 11, 2020: In a pre-print of a study entitled The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated published in MedRxiv, researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. They   further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. They found that in general, between 40,000 to 140,000 people in Wuhan traveled to destinations outside of Hubei province daily before the lock-down of the city on January 23, with travel peaks on January 9, 21 and 22. Thus, it is likely that this massive flow of people from Hubei province during January facilitated the rapid dissemination of virus. Overall, the researchers report R0 values are likely be between 4.7 and 6.6. They argue that the high R0 and a relatively short incubation period lead to the extremely rapid growth of the of 2019-nCoV outbreak as compared to the 2003 SARS epidemic where R0 was estimated to be between 2.2 to 3.6… Results show that if as low as 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus.

 

FEB 12, 2020: The first public hint of trouble with the test kits emerges when the CDC’s Messonnier mentions unspecified “issues” at the public health labs. “Some of the states identified some inconclusive laboratory results,’’ Messonnier tells reporters. “We have multiple levels of quality control to detect issues just like this one.” The Washington Post Contamination at CDC lab delayed rollout of coronavirus tests by David Willman [not on Twitter];  Transcript for CDC Telebriefing: CDC Update on Novel Coronavirus.

 

FEB 12, 2020: In a press briefing, Dr. Nancy Messonnier says “We can and should be prepared for this new virus to gain a foothold in the U.S. The goal of the measures we have taken to date are to slow the introduction and impact of this disease in the United States, but at some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S.” The CDC’s Messonnier, who also acknowledged problems with the test kits distributed to states. The lack of functional test kits at state labs meant all samples had to be sent to the CDC, and limits were placed on who could be tested. Transcript for CDC Telebriefing: CDC Update on Novel Coronavirus; NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR.

 

FEB 12, 2020: The New York Times reported that Trump’s CDC had sent state labs flawed test kits, further slowing down the testing process. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 12, 2020: The CDC reveals that some labs were having problems when doing verification tests to make sure the tests worked. It was a manufacturing problem with one component of the test, the CDC later says. Factcheck.org Trump’s Spin on ‘Broken’ Testing by Lori Robertson [Not on Twitter] @factcheckdotorg.

 

FEB 12, 2020: A total of 2,009 tests had been conducted in the United States, according to CDC data. The Washington Post Investigation Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help by Shawn Boburg, @ShawnBoburg Robert O’Harrow Jr., @robertoharrow Neena Satija @neenareports and Amy Goldstein @goldsteinamy.

 

FEB 13, 2020: HHS Secretary Azar testifies in Congress that the CDC is working with five cities to add coronavirus testing to its regular flu surveillance to see whether “there is broader spread than we have been able to detect so far.” The labs are in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle. However, the tests do not work. Susan Butler-Wu, director of medical microbiology at the Los Angeles County and University of Southern California Medical Center, warns in an email in response to an inquiry from Congress: “We’re screwed from a testing standpoint if this thing takes off in the US.” The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing; The Washington Post Investigation Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help by  Shawn Boburg, @ShawnBoburg Robert O’Harrow Jr., @robertoharrow Neena Satija @neenareports and Amy Goldstein @goldsteinamy.

 

FEB 14, 2020:  Despite Dr. Bright’s best efforts to connect mask producers to the ASPR supply chain leads so they could hear first-hand from manufacturers about the growing shortage, this urgent issue had not been effectively addressed. Accordingly, Dr. Bright continued to offer dire warnings and forward reports of mask shortages to the ASPR’s [Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response- Dr. Robert Kadlec] SNS [Strategic National Stockpile] and Critical Infrastructure teams. But while more discussion was occurring, little action was taking place to address this significant risk. Complaint.

 

FEB 14, 2020:  Dr. Kadlec and Mr. Shuy, Deputy Assistant Secretary and Chief of Staff of ASPR, were asked to brief Mr. Navarro on medical supply chain issues and asked the ASPR supply chain leadership to prepare slides for the meeting. Shockingly, the conclusion was that “there are no known immediate problems with supply chains” even though there was an acknowledgement that the United States could require up to 6 billion respirators in a pandemic, and that it was “[u]nlikely that the US will have enough disposable N95 respirators to meet response needs under current infection control recommendations.” Later in the report, ASPR identified other critical products of concern, including face shields, needles, syringes, and antimicrobials, and identified as important issues of concern a shortage of gloves and gowns. Thus, even as HHS leadership began to acknowledge the imminent shortages in critical medical supplies, they failed to recognize the magnitude of the problem, and they failed to take the necessary urgent action. Complaint.

 

FEB 14, 2020: Later in the day, Dr. Bright returned to the White House at Mr. Navarro’s request to assist him in drafting several more urgent memos in preparation for the Task Force that were necessary, in Mr. Navarro’s words, to “get shit done” and “save lives.” Dr. Bright briefed Mr. Navarro about ASPR supply chain leadership’s conclusion that “there are no known immediate problems with supply chains.” Like Dr. Bright, Mr. Navarro was extremely concerned about HHS’s laxity in addressing the pandemic. He requested Dr. Bright’s assistance in drafting memos to the White House Task Force about production of N95 masks, respirators, vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics and ancillary supplies such as needles and syringes that were critical to administer vaccine. In the course of this and other meetings, Dr. Bright briefed Mr. Navarro about the urgent need to develop rapid, hand-held diagnostic and serology tests and potential shortages of materials necessary to administer COVID-19 tests, such as swabs and extraction buffers. He made clear that the lack of masks and protective equipment put health care workers at serious risk and that without adequate masks and Personal Protective Equipment (“PPE”), they would be extremely vulnerable to infection. He also discussed with Mr. Navarro his growing alarm about the shortage of syringes, needles and vials necessary to administer vaccines if and when one became available. Complaint.

 

FEB 14, 2020: At the conclusion of the meeting of Mr. Navarro and Dr. Bright, Mr. Navarro drafted five separate memos to the White House Task Force, urging: the production of N95 masks; the creation of a Manhattan Project for the development of oral antiviral drugs; the mass production of manufacture of needles and syringes; the development of handheld diagnostic and serology tests; and the development of monoclonal antibodies for potential prophylactic use to protect healthcare workers and other critical workers until a vaccine became available. Mr. Navarro sent three memos to the COVID-19 Task Force, through Mr. Mulvaney and Mr. O’Brien, urging immediate action to increase production of Remdesivir, increase the N95 face mask supply, and ramp up production of needles and syringes necessary to deliver a vaccine. Complaint.

 

FEB 14, 2020: Trump says, “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.” He continues, “And I spoke with President Xi of China, and he’s working very hard on this.  It’s a tremendous problem. But they’re very capable and they’ll—they’ll get to it.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 14, 2020: A memo dated Feb. 14 prepared in coordination with the National Security Council and HHS titled “U.S. Government Response to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus,” documented what more drastic measures would look like, including “significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Widespread ‘stay at home’ directives from public and private organizations with nearly 100% telework for some.” The memo did not advocate an immediate national shutdown, but said the targeted use of “quarantine and isolation measures” could be used to slow the spread in places where “sustained human-to-human transmission” is evident. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT , David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT,  Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm, Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes. President Trump later cancels the meeting with senior HHS and National Security Council officials, when officials intended to present the memo and their recommendation for enhanced mitigation measures. “The White House focused instead on messaging and crucial additional weeks went by before their views were reluctantly accepted by the president — time when the virus spread largely unimpeded,” The New York Times reports. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 14, 2020: Trump touts poll numbers: “And 61 percent of the voters approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus… Now everyone is saying we did a good job.” CDC announces it will use flu surveillance network to keep an eye out for coronavirus spread; the project will be “delayed for weeks.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 14, 2020:  U.S. Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) joined Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) and 23 of their Democratic Senate colleagues to send a letter to Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Alex Azar and Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Mick Mulvaney expressing their concern over the Trump Administration’s failure to outline what additional resources it needs to respond to the rapidly developing coronavirus outbreak.

 

FEB 15, 2020: Trump golfs at Trump International. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 18, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 11:39AM, Dr. Eva Lee emails the group: “We predicted the Diamond Princess infection totality before they announced it. What it shows– is that intervention (NPI ) must be done timely. A delayed intervention cannot reverse the course and can be catastrophic. They have far more positive infected cases than they should have, have they intervened differently and swiftly. The health system burden cannot be overemphasized.” The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 18, 2020: The CDC warns clinical laboratories across the country against testing on their own without FDA approval. Meanwhile, it has still not provided public health labs with instructions on how to modify its test to make it work properly. The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing. The press release states:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel which is to be used in qualified laboratories for testing patient respiratory specimens that meet CDC criteria for COVID-19 testing. This message is to remind clinical laboratories that this is currently the only EUA assay for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. Any laboratory that is not designated by CDC as a qualified laboratory and is implementing a COVID-19 diagnostic test other than the CDC EUA assay must contact the FDA to obtain an EUA before any COVID-19 diagnostic testing may be performed in their facilities.

 

The Secretary of Health and Human Services issued an emergency declaration that justifies the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostics for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 and the diagnosis of COVID-19. All tests for SARS-CoV-2, including laboratory developed tests (LDTs), must be reviewed and cleared or authorized by the FDA for emergency use, or they cannot be used for diagnostic testing. The FDA requests that developers of such LDTs submit information about their tests help FDA better understand their design, validation, and performance characteristics.

Lab Advisory: Reminder: COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing

 

FEB 18, 2020: A group of 27 senators sent a letter to current National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien to ask him to appoint a new global health security expert to the NSC: “The fact that they explicitly dismantled the office in the White House that was tasked with preparing for exactly this kind of a risk is hugely concerning,” Jeremy Konyndyk, who ran foreign disaster assistance in the Obama administration, told the Guardian. “Both the structure and all the institutional memory is gone now.” PolitiFact Did Donald Trump fire pandemic officials, defund CDC? by Louis Jacobson @loujacobson and Victoria Knight @victoriaregisk.

 

FEB 18, 2020: Atlantic contributor Peter Nicholas offered perceptive summations of the Trump Administration’s failures of governance so far and the challenges ahead:  “He [Trump]has hollowed out federal agencies and belittled expertise, prioritizing instead his own intuition and the demands of his political base. But he’ll need to rely on a bureaucracy he’s maligned to stop the virus’s spread.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 18, 2020:  In the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers document the ineffectiveness of symptom-based screening of predominately German nationals brought back from Wuhan. “We discovered that shedding of potentially infectious virus may occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or only minor signs of infection,” they write. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 19, 2020:  Trump assures the public they do not have to worry about the coronavirus. In an interview, Trump says, “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.” Trump holds a rally in Phoenix. He does not mention the coronavirus. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 20, 2020: CNN reports while the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has screened more than 30,000 passengers in the past month, not a single US coronavirus case has been caught by airport temperature checks, according to a CNN investigation. Earlier this month, British researchers published a study showing that temperature checks will fail to detect a coronavirus infection nearly half the time. At least one country has found airport temperature checks so unhelpful that it decided not to do them during the novel coronavirus outbreak. Israel used them in previous years for Ebola, SARS and H1N1, but found that they didn’t work. Ten passengers flew into US airports on commercial airliners and were later diagnosed with coronavirus. CNN’s investigation shows that four of those 10 passengers went through temperature checks and were found not to have a fever or any other symptoms of the virus. Another 4 out of the 10 passengers were not screened because they flew into airports that did not have screening at the time. CNN No US coronavirus cases were caught by airport temperature checks by Elizabeth Cohen @elizcohencnn and  John Bonifield [not on Twitter].

 

FEB 20, 2020: President Trump fires acting director of national intelligence, Joseph Maguire, a week after a to the House Intelligence Committee by the top election security official, Shelby Pierson, on Russian interference in the upcoming 2020 election. The president announced that he was replacing Maguire with Richard Grenell, the current ambassador to Germany, who will oversee 17 U.S. intelligence agencies. Wikipedia.

 

FEB 20, 2020: Trump holds a rally in Colorado Springs. He does not mention the coronavirus. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 21, 2020: Taskforce concludes aggressive social distancing needed. The White House coronavirus task force convenes and considers when to move from the containment phase of mainly focusing on keeping the virus out of the U.S. into the mitigation phase as it becomes increasingly clear that coronavirus is spreading inside the U.S. On the meeting agenda, according to the New York Times, was when HHS Secretary Alex Azar “should recommend that Mr. Trump take textbook mitigation measures ‘such as school dismissals and cancellations of mass gatherings,’ which had been identified as the next appropriate step in a Bush-era pandemic plan.” HHS Secretary Azar, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci, and CDC Director Robert Redfield, all members of the task force, conclude that the U.S. would, according to The Times, “soon need to move toward aggressive social distancing, even at the risk of severe disruption to the nation’s economy and the daily lives of millions of Americans.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach; RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory; Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 21, 2020: Trump holds a rally in Las Vegas. He does not mention the coronavirus. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

FEB 21, 2020:  Britain’s Imperial College releases a report estimating “that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission  outside mainland China.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 23, 2020: The president left D.C. for a multiday trip to India. The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake.

 

FEB 23, 2020: Early in the morning, Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and professor at Harvard, tweeted that “the US remains extremely limited in #COVID19 testing. Only 3 of 100 public health labs have @CDC test kits working and CDC is not sharing what went wrong with the kits. How to know if COVID19 is spreading here if we are not looking for it.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 23, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 7:38AM, Dr. Eva Lee, an American operations researcher at Georgia Tech, informs HHS official Robert Kadlec in the Red Dawn email chain that COVID-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically. Dr Lee’s email stated:

1. Means of spread. A study from AMA confirmed many of the parameters assumed in our models:-A 20 twenty-year old infected with Covid-19 left Wuhan and went on infecting 5 relatives. When they tested positive, she was finally isolated, but tested negative still, and later tested positive, and remain normal on chest CT with no fever, stomach or respiratory symptoms (cough or sore throat as late as Feb 11(time of the paper study duration). So spreading and its wide scope is unavoidable because there exists these very healthy individuals who can spread effectively — even during incubation period — while they remain perfectly healthy. It also showcases difficulty in testing — negative test — may not be the end of it.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 23, 2020: Timothy Stenzel, a top FDA official for regulating diagnostic devices, meets with CDC officials in Atlanta to discuss the malfunctioning test kits. Stenzel will conclude that the problems are caused entirely by the CDC’s in-house manufacturing. He soon advises the CDC to assign any additional manufacturing of the kits to an outside contractor. The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing.

 

FEB 23, 2020: Economic Advisor Peter Navarro warns of “full-blown pandemic.” In a memo to the president, Navarro urgently requests immediate supplemental appropriation to combat the crisis. “There is an increasing probability of a full-blown Covid-19 pandemic that could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls,” and “inflict trillions of dollars in economic damage,” Navarro, writes in a memo obtained by Axios. Moreover, Navarro’s memo states, “to minimize economic and social disruption and loss of life, there is an urgent need for an immediate supplemental appropriation of at least $3.0 billion” for “prevention, treatment, inoculation, and diagnostics. This is NOT a time for penny-pinching or horse trading on the Hill.” He offers a “conservative estimate” that $618 million is needed to procure personal protective equipment, $528 million for treatment therapeutics, $1.6 billion for vaccine development, and $280 million for diagnostic testing. “Time is of the essence for all four points of the PPE, treatment, vaccine, and diagnostics!” he writes. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; The Guardian ‘It will disappear’: the disinformation Trump spread about the coronavirus – timeline by @TeeMcSee @guardian; The Project On Government Oversight (POGO, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 23, 2020: By this date, 46,016 air travelers had been screened; only one tested positive and was isolated for treatment, according to a 24 February report from the CDC. That clearly has not halted the spread of the virus in the United States, which as of this morning has 99 confirmed cases, according to CDC, plus 49 more among people repatriated from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama, Japan.  Every infectious disease behaves differently, but experts do not expect airport screening for COVID-19 to be more effective than for SARS or pandemic flu. And it’s unlikely to have a significant impact on the course of the outbreak. Two recent modeling studies call screening into question as well. Researchers at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control concluded that approximately 75% of passengers infected with COVID-19 and traveling from affected Chinese cities would not be detected by entry screening. A study by a group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine concluded that exit and entry screening “is unlikely to prevent passage of infected travelers into new countries or regions where they may seed local transmission.” Science Magazine Why airport screening won’t stop the spread of coronavirus by Dennis Normile @dnormile.

 

FEB 23, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 11:35 PM Dr. Kadlec, HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, responds to the 7:38AM email sent by Dr. Eva Lee, the researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology, who was among the group of academics, government physicians and infectious diseases doctors who had spent weeks tracking the outbreak in the Red Dawn email chain. Dr. Lee’s 7:38AM email said that a 20-year-old Chinese woman had infected five relatives with the virus even though she never displayed any symptoms herself. The implication was grave — apparently healthy people could be unknowingly spreading the virus — and supported the need to move quickly to mitigation. “Is this true?!” Dr. Kadlec wrote back to Dr. Lee. “If so we have a huge whole on our screening and quarantine effort,” including a typo where he meant hole. Her response was blunt: “People are carrying the virus everywhere.” The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT, David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

FEB 24, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 12:07 AM Dr. Eva Lee replied to Dr. Kadlec copying on her response CDC Director Robert Redfield, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci, Adm. Brett Giroir, Assistant Secretary for Health at HHS, Dr. Carter E. Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA, Dr. James Lawler, an infectious disease doctor at University of Nebraska, and others:

Hi Bob

Yes, it is reported in JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028

[Bai Y, Yao L, Wei T, et al. Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19. JAMA. 2020;323(14):1406–1407. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2565]

 

Clearly, there’re still lots of uncertainty. However, there is no reason for them to lie. Furthermore, in the very first model sent around the results on Jan 30, assume infectious for patient seven during incubation, during infection, 1/3 asymptomatic, 2/3 symptomatic. I was motivated to do that after talking to the head of laboratory in Hong Kong on Jan 29. He said many cases from his findings support that the viral counts are simply too low to surface at the

beginning and hence cannot be detected. With that assumption, the model can explain how and why the spread is so furious in China and why China resorts to complete lock down of Hubei, and now 1/2 billion people. Simply, people are carrying the virus everywhere. And this young woman is doing exactly that. She wasn’t even tested positive after she infected her 5 relatives. Only afterwards. That’s why I modeled the test and told James [Lawler] of the days to test and that we either must test all, or we must sample. The Diamond cruise partially supports that priority screening on only “suspected symptomatic individuals” are not sufficient. Please note also that before the Jan 23 lock down of Hubei, approx. 5 million people have left the city, traveling everywhere in China. This woman left on Jan 10.

Bob, if Europe fails, there is very little chance we can contain. So we must rollout the NPI [nonpharmaceutical interventions-e.g. lockdowns].

Best, Eva

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 24, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 5:55AM Dr. Eva Lee emailed  HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Dr. Robert Kadlec:

3. Early NPI [nonpharmaceutical interventions-e.g. lockdowns] is a must:

Even if there is only 1% COVID-19 infection, and within which 20% requires hospitalization, this will already overwhelm our health systems. Singapore and Hong Kong have demonstrated that early NPI can help contain and prevent disease spread. In Hong Kong, government and private sectors are practicing home-office tele-work, schools are closed, community service even churches are doing distance worship, and public places are disinfected regularly, so is personal hygiene. Regardless if there is any asymptomatic transmission, we must take these steps early. We need to allow parents make that choice, workers make that choice, without being penalized by their teachers and employers.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 24, 2020: After receiving Dr. Lee’s emails confirming asymptomatic spread of coronavirus which had dire implications,  Dr. Kadlec and the others decided to present Mr. Trump with a plan titled “Four Steps to Mitigation,” which would tell the president that they needed to begin preparing Americans for extreme mitigation efforts. But over the next several days, a presidential blowup and internal turf fights would sidetrack such a move. The focus would shift to messaging and confident predictions of success rather than publicly calling for a shift to mitigation. Within 24 hours, before they got a chance to make their presentation to the president, the plan went awry. Mr. Trump was walking up the steps of Air Force One to head home from India on Feb. 25 when Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, publicly issued the blunt warning they had all agreed was necessary. On the 18-hour plane ride home, Mr. Trump fumed as he watched the stock market crash after Dr. Messonnier’s comments. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT , David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

FEB 24, 2020: Nancy Pelosi Goes to Chinatown. Representative Dan Crenshaw, in his viral video entitled “Debunking the Left’s Covid-19 Narrative,” said “You also see a lot of criticism for Trump being overly optimistic. But this is what Nancy Pelosi was saying in late February, telling people to go out and enjoy themselves for the Chinese New Year.” Crenshaw then shows a video clip of Pelosi in Chinatown stating “Come to Chinatown, here we are.” Crenshaw’s video is misleading. First of all, the Chinese New Year was on January 25, 2020 and Pelosi visited Chinatown on February 24, 2020. More importantly, Crenshaw’s video omits all of the context surrounding Pelosi’s appearance in Chinatown. She went to there to support her constituents who were suffering financially and enduring an upsurge in racially motivated verbal and physical assaults. For example, The Washington Post reported that in “Chinatowns from London to Boston to San Francisco, business owners and restaurateurs have reported sharp sales declines in the weeks since Chinese officials identified the novel coronavirus, first detected in Wuhan in late December. The steep drop in business, reportedly as much as 70 percent in Manhattan’s Chinatown, is not just based on consumer fears of the contracting the virus, owners say. It’s also due to a decrease in tourists as airlines shut down flights to mainland China.” The Washington Post, Amid coronavirus fears, Chinese restaurants report a drop in business by Tim Carman @timcarman and Emily Heil @emilyahei. Similarly, Eater reported that in “San Francisco, Chinese Merchants Association spokesperson Edward Siu says foot traffic has dropped 50 percent in Chinatown. Despite no cases of coronavirus being contracted in San Francisco, Siu thinks unfounded fears about the virus are to blame. ‘We are safe and we are healthy,’ Siu tells NBC Bay Area. ‘Don’t worry about whatever the rumors say. Chinatown is safe.’” Eater, The Effect of Coronavirus on American Chinese Restaurants, Explained by Caleb Pershan @calaesthetic. Racial attacks were also widely reported in the media prior to Pelosi’s visit. For example, CNN published an article titled What’s spreading faster than coronavirus in the US? Racist assaults and ignorant attacks against Asians  and in The Los Angeles Times, an article titled Fear of coronavirus fuels racist sentiment targeting Asians appeared. To support her constituents, Speaker Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi held a media availability at the Dim Sum Corner Restaurant following a meeting with local business owners in San Francisco’s Chinatown:

 

Speaker Pelosi: I’m so glad to see so many of you in Chinatown today. I’m here today, particularly, to say thank you to the community for the sense of family values and sense of community that they provide. But also to say to everyone: we should come to Chinatown.  Precautions have been taken by our city.  We know that there is concern surrounding tourism, traveling all throughout the world, but we think it’s very safe to be in Chinatown and hope that others will come. . . .

Q:  Madam Speaker, is the federal government doing enough to control this virus and to get out this kind of message?

Speaker Pelosi. . . .I do have concern that the President’s budget cut nineteen percent of the [CDC]. . . so I’m [not] happy about that.  We’ll fight that cut.

Q:  Speaker Pelosi, the President’s Administration is said to be about to request one billion dollars in spending to help fight the Coronavirus –

Speaker Pelosi:  Well, we’ll see.  They just cut $1.3. . .billion out of the [CDC].  So, I don’t know if that’s enough, but let’s see what the focus is.  Prevention, prevention, prevention.  We want people to be concerned and vigilant.  However, we don’t want them to be afraid. Pelosi Remarks at Media Availability Following Visit to San Francisco’s Chinatown.

 

FEB 24, 2020:  In a letter to Mike Pence in his role as president of the Senate, the Office of Management and Budget asks Congress for $2.5 billion in emergency funding to combat the spread of the coronavirus. The letter requests $1.25 billion in emergency funding, and permission to reallocate $535 million in funding appropriated to fight the Ebola epidemic and “reprioritization of other FY 2020 funding across HHS, and contributions from other Government agencies” totaling $715 million. Congressional Democrats and even some Republicans immediately say this isn’t enough. (Source) NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR; Trump administration asks Congress for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus by Rebecca Falconer @BecFalconer @Axios.

 

FEB 24, 2020:  In an article titled Trump sending coronavirus budget request to Congress, Politico reported the Trump administration sent to Capitol Hill on Monday night its $2.5 billion supplemental budget request for additional money to fight the coronavirus, but House Democrats immediately labeled it as insufficient, indicating a battle ahead in Congress over the emergency aid. The administration’s request would require enhanced authority to move around federal funds — a non-starter with Democrats, who are already livid over White House moves to reshuffle existing federal funds toward the border wall. The package proposes using untouched money, including hundreds of millions of dollars in fiscal 2020 cash to fight Ebola. In total, the administration is seeking just $1.25 billion in new funding, relying on extra flexibility to unlock the rest. But Democrats swiftly rejected the request, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer lambasting it as “indicative of his towering incompetence.” House Appropriations Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) called it “woefully insufficient,” and warned the White House against siphoning funds from other health initiatives to fight coronavirus. She urged administration officials to ask for new emergency money instead. “Despite urgent warnings from Congress and the public health community, the Trump administration took weeks to request these emergency funds,” Lowey said in a statement. “It is profoundly disturbing that their answer now is to raid money Congress has designated for other critical public health priorities. Worse still, their overall request still falls short of what is needed for an effective, comprehensive government-wide response.” Lowey added, “House Democrats will move quickly to enact a robust package that fully addresses this global emergency without allowing this administration to steal from other necessary programs.” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the chairwoman of the House Appropriations panel that handles health funding, also slammed the request. “The Trump administration wants Congress to rubber stamp their plan to steal funds from programs like medical research at the National Institutes of Health, school readiness for kids through Head Start, Ebola vaccine funding, and much more — all while withholding key information about their efforts to date to stem the spread of the coronavirus,” she said in a statement. “That is unacceptable.” Politico, Trump sending coronavirus budget request to Congress by Nancy Cook @nancook and Caitlin Emma @caitlinzemma.

 

FEB 24, 2020: Despite the near universal criticism of the Trump Administration’s inadequate request for supplemental funding, Representative Dan Crenshaw, in his viral video entitled “Debunking the Left’s Covid-19 Narrative,” said that “When the president actually asked Congress for supplemental funding to combat the virus– $2.5 billion. What did Nancy Pelosi do? Instead of putting that money on the House Floor to be voted on, she put a bill on to ban flavored tobacco. That was the priority of the Speaker of the House.” Crenshaw’s video is misleading. On February 24, Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued this statement on the Trump Administration’s request for supplemental funds to combat the coronavirus crisis:

 

“Americans need a coordinated, fully-funded, whole-of-government response to keep them and their loved ones safe.  The President’s request for coronavirus response funding is long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency. For almost two years, the Trump Administration has left critical positions in charge of managing pandemics at the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security vacant.  His most recent budget called for slashing funding for the Centers for Disease Control, which is on the frontlines of this emergency.  And now, the President is compounding our vulnerabilities by seeking to ransack funds still needed to keep Ebola in check. Weeks after the Trump Budget called for slashing the CDC budget during this coronavirus epidemic, this undersized funding request shows an ongoing failure to understand urgent public health needs. Our state and local governments need serious funding to be ready to respond effectively to any outbreak in the U.S.  The President should not be raiding money that Congress has appropriated for other life-or-death public health priorities. The House will swiftly advance a strong, strategic funding package that fully addresses the scale and seriousness of this public health crisis.” Pelosi Statement on President Trump’s Budget Request on Coronavirus Response.

 

Two days later, Senator Schumer proposed $8.5 billion in emergency funding for the CDC, the Public Health And Social Services Emergency Fund, USAID, and NIH to fight the spread of coronavirus. Schumer Offers Detailed Proposal For $8.5 Billion In Emergency Coronavirus Funding.

 

Rep. Crenshaw’s assertion that Nancy Pelosi put a bill on the house floor to ban flavored tobacco (implying that this was not a priority) in response to the Trump Administration’s supplemental funding request is false. For one thing, it was reported on February 20, 2020 that the House would vote on the bill four days before the Trump Administration even sent the letter requesting supplemental funding. For example, The Hill reported that the House will vote next week on a bill aimed at reducing youth vaping rates by banning the sale of flavored tobacco products, including e-cigarettes. House votes next week on flavored e-cigarettes ban by Jessie Hellmann @jessiehellmann.  For another thing, Rep. Crenshaw’s statement that it was a “bill to ban flavored tobacco” mischaracterizes the comprehensive legislation called Reversing the Youth Tobacco Epidemic Act of 2019 which was introduced on April 16, 2019 by Energy and Commerce Chairman Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) and Rep. Donna Shalala (D-FL). The new legislation aimed to address the sharp rise in use of tobacco and e-cigarette products among young people. For example, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported an alarming 78 percent increase in current e-cigarette use by high school students and 48 percent increase among middle school students from 2017 to 2018. “The Reversing the Youth Tobacco Epidemic Act makes clear that we will not tolerate the proliferation of slick new products purposefully designed to appeal to young people to get them addicted to nicotine and tobacco” Pallone said.  “Congress must act to reduce youth nicotine addiction by making it clear that selling tobacco products to kids is illegal.  My legislation also treats e-cigarettes and other tobacco products the same as traditional cigarettes under the law.  We cannot afford to wait – we are on the cusp of losing an entirely new generation to a lifetime of nicotine addiction.”  Pallone and Shalala Introduce Comprehensive Legislation to Address Youth Tobacco Epidemic. On February 27, 2020, Pelosi said at a press conference: “Then today or tomorrow on the floor of the House, we have very important legislation. It is to stop the youth tobacco epidemic that we’re [experiencing], also is on the public health front, the House will vote on H.R. 2339, strong legislation to combat the growing [youth] tobacco and e-cigarette crisis. More than 5.3 million middle school and high school students are using e-cigarettes, more than twice as many as two years ago. According to US Surgeon General youth e-cigarettes youth is an epidemic. The bill protects our children with strong measures preventing marketing to youth under 21, banning all flavored tobacco products including menthol cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Big tobacco is just on its usual rampage. It uses flavors like gummy bear, bubble gum and cotton to ensnare and addict our children to tobacco. 97% of youth using e-cigarettes use flavored cigarettes.”  Transcript: Nancy Pelosi Holds News Briefing Amid Coronavirus, Budget Talks.  And in her floor speech, Pelosi said, “When people ask me what are the three most important issues facing the Congress, now for 30 years or so in Congress, I have always said the same thing: our children, our children, our children.  Their health, their education, the economic security of their families, a safe clean environment in which they can thrive, a world in peace in which they can reach their fulfillment. It’s all about the children.  It’s all about their future. Today, I rise to join my colleagues to take urgently needed action to confront the growing youth tobacco crisis which is, in the words of a U.S. Surgeon General, ‘an epidemic.’ This is legislation to protect our children.” Pelosi Floor Speech in Support of H.R. 2339. Crenshaw voted against the legislation.

 

FEB 24, 2020:  Trump tweeted, “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

 

FEB 24, 2020: The coronavirus denialists began in late February, led by conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh. In his commentary, Limbaugh called coronavirus “the common cold.” Limbaugh correctly said that the survival rate was 98 percent, but he omitted predictions that a third of the country could become infected. At this point, there weren’t many conservative stories denying the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. The influential Limbaugh set the tone. How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

FEB 24, 2020:  A coalition of public health labs asks the FDA for permission to make their own tests: “We are now many weeks into the response with still no diagnostic or surveillance test available outside of CDC for the vast majority of our member laboratories.” The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing; The Washington Post Investigation Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help by Shawn Boburg, @ShawnBoburg Robert O’Harrow Jr., @robertoharrow Neena Satija @neenareports and Amy Goldstein @goldsteinamy.

 

FEB 24, 2020: In letter to Congress, Redfield brags: “CDC’s aggressive response enables us to identify potential cases early and make sure that they are properly handled.” The Coronavirus Task Force reportedly agrees to present Trump a social-distancing mitigation strategy. Trump is traveling in India, delaying the plan. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 25, 2020: In his Senate testimony, HHS Secretary Azar insisted the administration was delivering. “I’m told the diagnostic doesn’t work,” Sen. Murray said, challenging Azar. The HHS secretary shot back. “That’s simply, flatly incorrect,” he said, pointing to the CDC’s own ability to run the test. Azar then began spouting Trumpian self-praise, celebrating the “historic” response to the virus. “No administration,” he said, “no CDC in American history, has delivered like this.” Rolling Stone The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 25, 2020: At the Appropriations Subcommittee hearing, Senator Murray grilled Secretary Azar on the Administration’s lack of novel coronavirus preparedness and their “very small, unspecified” supplemental funding request. Senator Murray pressed Secretary Azar on the White House’s request for supplemental emergency funding, which Senator Murray stated at the hearing was inadequate and vague. Senator Murray expressed concern for the “very small, unspecified supplemental, and the lack of preparedness” by the Administration as the virus threatens to become pandemic.

 

Following an  exchange with Azar, Senator Murray stated, “It’s troubling that the Administration didn’t use the month of planning time it had to follow the recommendations of its own experts to better prepare for a pandemic. It’s just one more example of the Administration disregarding scientific evidence and public health experts.”

 

Senator Murray continued, “While I’m glad the Administration has finally submitted a request for emergency supplemental funding—as I’ve urged them to do—this request is totally inadequate to address the needs we are hearing from our federal state, and local health experts working to combat this crisis,” Senator Murray stated after the hearing. “Public health experts have made clear this isn’t likely to end any time soon, so it’s critical we plan appropriately and that the Administration provide the necessary resources to manage this over the long term. When it comes to staying ahead of this disease and keeping families safe, we simply can’t afford to plan our response to this crisis on the cheap.”

 

FEB 25, 2020: Carter Mecher, a senior medical adviser for the Department of Veterans Affairs who is the VA’s liaison with CDC, circulates a projection that there could be 1.7 million deaths in the U.S. without action. He also writes, referring to personal protective equipment, such as N95 masks, “We should plan assuming we won’t have enough PPE—so need to change the battlefield and how we envision or even define the front lines.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), a nonpartisan independent watchdog, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 25, 2020: The Army’s medical intelligence center raises its warning that the coronavirus would become a pandemic within 30 days from WATCHCON 2 — a probable crisis — to WATCHCON 1 — an imminent crisis. The warning is provided in an intelligence briefing to the Joint Chiefs of Staff two days later. The center’s analysis is usually shared with defense and health officials, including the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 25, 2020:  Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, sounded perhaps the most significant public alarm to that point, when she told reporters that the coronavirus was likely to spread within communities in the United States and that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” The Washington Post U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic by  Shane Harris, @shaneharris Greg Miller @gregpmiller, Josh Dawsey @jdawsey1and Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae. Dr. Messonnier, in prepared remarks, states that the outbreak is inevitable and may lead to severe disruption to everyday life. “Now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities, schools, and everyday people to begin preparing,” she adds. She says that she talked to her own children that morning. “While I didn’t think that  they were at risk right now, we as a family need to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives.” (Full audio recording and full transcript of CDC’s update on Feb. 25 with Messonnier). Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 25, 2020: Stocks slump again, driving the S&P 500 down 3% after Nancy Messonier, the director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, says the CDC is preparing for a pandemic and fears grow that the virus will slow the global economy. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump threatens to fire her. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones;  U.S. News Timeline of Key Events in the Spread of the New Coronavirus; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 25, 2020: During a press briefing that afternoon, Azar seeks to quell concerns following Messonnier’s comments. He says the disease is “contained.”  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 25, 2020: Later that night, Larry Kudlow, the President’s National Economic Council Director is asked about Dr. Messonnier’s comments. He tells CNBC, “We have contained this. I won’t say airtight, but it’s pretty close to airtight.” “I don’t think it’s going to be an economic tragedy at all,” he adds. He also says he sees no problems with supply and availability of medical equipment. (Full transcript.) Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. At one point, when the stock market was plunging, he mentioned the prospect of “buying the dip.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones; U.S. News Timeline of Key Events in the Spread of the New Coronavirus.

 

FEB 25, 2020: At a news conference in New Delhi, Trump says: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are – in all cases, I have not heard anything other.” The Guardian ‘It will disappear’: the disinformation Trump spread about the coronavirus – timeline by @TeeMcSee @guardian; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 25, 2020: Trump called Azar on his way back from a trip to India and complained that Messonnier was scaring the stock markets, according to two senior administration officials. The Washington Post U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic by Shane Harris, @shaneharris Greg Miller @gregpmiller, Josh Dawsey @jdawsey1and Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae. Unaware that his public health officials were planning to propose mitigation efforts, Trump scolded Messonier’s ultimate boss, Alex Azar, for the toll her announcement had on the stock market. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 25, 2020: At the Democratic debate when Joe Biden was asked how he would respond to the COVID-19 outbreak, he championed his own experience. The former vice-president said that he led the Obama administration’s efforts to stop the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, “saving millions of lives.” He also said he would pressure China for greater transparency and access.  “I would be on the phone with China making it clear we are going to need to be in your country,” Biden said, raising his voice. “You have to be open. You have to be clear. We have to know what’s going on. We have to be there with you and insist on it and insist, insist, insist.” New York Magazine, What Candidates Said About the Coronavirus Outbreak at the Democratic Debate by Chas Danner @chasdanner.

 

FEB 25, 2020: Tucker Carlson warned his viewers about the deadly consequences of the coronavirus: “Currently, the coronavirus appears to kill about two percent of the people who have it. So let’s be generous for a moment and imagine that asymptomatic carriers are not detected and the real death rate is only say half a percent — that would be one quarter of the current estimates. Even under that scenario, there would still be 27 million deaths from coronavirus globally. In this country, more than a million would die.” Misinformation During a Pandemic published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago bfi.uchicago.edu. @BeckerFriedman.

 

FEB 26, 2020: Still steaming, Trump called Azar when he landed at around 6 a.m. raging that Dr. Messonnier had scared people unnecessarily. Already on thin ice with the president over a variety of issues and having overseen the failure to quickly produce an effective and widely available test, Mr. Azar would soon find his authority reduced. The meeting that evening with Mr. Trump to advocate social distancing was canceled, replaced by a news conference in which the president announced that the White House response would be put under the command of Vice President Mike Pence. The New York Times Investigation He Could Have Seen What was Coming by Eric Lipton @EricLiptonNYT , David E. Sanger,  @SangerNYT, Maggie Haberman, @maggieNYT Michael D. Shear, @shearm Mark Mazzetti @MarkMazzettiNYT and Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.

 

FEB 26, 2020: President Trump privately complains Nancy Messonnier’s  public warning is scaring the stock markets, and threatens to fire her.  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. Trump reportedly calls Azar, enraged, complaining Messonnier was unnecessarily scaring the markets. Plans to brief Trump on need for social distancing measures are scrapped. More than two weeks will be lost before federal government recommends distancing measures. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 26, 2020: Trump demotes Azar, putting Mike Pence in charge of the coronavirus task force. As a result of Trump’s temper tantrum, the task force’s time-sensitive recommendations for social distancing, school closures, and cancellations of crowded events was put on hold. It would be three long, deadly weeks before Trump would finally announce social distancing recommendations on March 16. Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported on the severe shortage of N95 masks American hospitals were facing due to onerous federal regulations and a lack of support from the Trump administration and the administration’s lack of a plan going forward, which was causing confusion and panic among state and local officials. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 26, 2020:  With Pence’s ascension, FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn was finally brought into the coronavirus committee. For weeks the FDA’s powers to work with private companies to increase production of test kits, PPE, and other necessities had been ignored. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 26, 2020: Hours after returning from India, Trump participated in the first of his now-regular daily briefings about the virus. Much of the briefing was centered on providing political support for Trump. After beginning by praising his limits on travel from China, Trump and his team articulated that the risk posed by the virus is small. He claimed that the government was screening people from affected areas such as South Korea and Italy but that no additional travel restrictions were being imposed at the time. He held up a graph identifying the United States as one of the best-prepared countries in the world for an epidemic. At several points, he compared the threat to the seasonal flu, which, he had been told, kills tens of thousands of people a year. (“That was shocking to me,” Trump said.) “It is a little bit different, but in some ways it’s easier and in some ways it’s a little bit tougher,” he said of the coronavirus relative to the flu. “But we have it so well under control. I mean, we really have done a very good job.”

The president also offered one of the defining lines of his administration’s handling of the outbreak. “When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done,” Trump said. The Washington Post 2 months in the dark: the increasingly damning timeline of Trump’s coronavirus response by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake.

 

FEB 26, 2020: At a press conference, Trump announces he’s ousted Azar as head of Coronavirus Task Force: “I’m going to be putting our Vice President, Mike Pence, in charge.” Trump downplays the seriousness of COVID-19, “This is a flu. This is like a flu.” He adds: “We have a total of 15 [diagnosed] people, and they’re in a process of recovering… In a couple of days we’re going to be down to close to zero. We’re going down, not up. We’re going substantially down.”  President Trump falsely assures the public that the number of cases will go down.  “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people,” President Trump said. “And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time.” He adds, “when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”  The President defends his cuts to the CDC: “Some of the people we cut, they haven’t been used for many, many years.  And if — if we have a need, we can get them very quickly. And rather than spending the money — and I’m a businessperson — I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them. When we need them, we can get them back very quickly.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im; Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 26, 2020: Pelosi Statement on President Trump’s Coronavirus Press Conference. “The American people need a well-coordinated, whole-of-government, fully-funded response to keep them safe from the coronavirus threat.  Unfortunately, the Trump Administration has mounted an opaque and chaotic response to this outbreak. The Trump Administration has left critical positions in charge of managing pandemics at the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security vacant.  The Trump Budget called for slashing almost $700 million from the Centers for Disease Control. And even now, the Administration continues to devalue Americans’ health security by ransacking funding from other vital public health needs.” @SpeakerPelosi.

 

FEB 26, 2020: Politico reported that the “U.S. isn’t ready to detect stealth coronavirus spread” due to poor coordination among crisis management staff, the administration’s failure to get functional test kits out in a timely fashion, and needlessly strict test criteria. “Just 12 of more than 100 public health labs in the U.S. are currently able to diagnose the coronavirus because of problems with a test developed by the CDC, potentially slowing the response if the virus starts taking hold here. The faulty test has also delayed a plan to widely screen people with symptoms of respiratory illness who have tested negative for influenza to detect whether the coronavirus may be stealthily spreading.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 26, 2020: FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn responds to the Association of Public Health Laboratories (“APHL”) February 24th letter and denies permission to create and implement a laboratory developed test for coronavirus without prior FDA approval. Letter from FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn to APHL.

 

LATE FEB 2020: As the number of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the United States approached 60, HHS leadership acknowledged that they were not prepared for a pandemic. When Secretary Azar testified before the Senate Appropriations Committee on February 25, 2020, he revealed that the SNS [Strategic National Stockpile] holds 30 million N95 respirators, yet “Dr. Kadlec mentioned to the Senate this morning needing approximately 300 million for health care workers.” As calculated by previous FRMM [Flu Risk Management Meeting] reviews, the actual estimated number of disposable N95 respirators to protect healthcare workers in a pandemic response approached 3.5 billion – over ten times the number Dr. Kadlec represented was necessary, and over 100 times the number available in the SNS [Strategic National Stockpile]. The following day, five weeks after Dr. Bright first urged immediate action to prevent a mask shortage, ASPR [Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response] finally put out a pre-solicitation to collect information from mask producers to get information on where they might be able to buy N95 respirators and face masks. Three days later, the extent to which HHS officials underestimated the mask shortage became clear when the Surgeon General encouraged the public to stop buying masks, warning that a mask shortage could take important resources away from healthcare professionals. Following the ASPR SNS pre-solicitation notice to procure N95 masks, ASPR released a RFP [Request for Proposal] to procure N95 respirators that closed on March 12, nearly two months after Dr. Bright began pushing for awareness and urgent action. Complaint.

 

LATE FEB 2020: The CDC rejects using the WHO’s Covid-19 diagnostic test. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 27, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 5:00 AM, Dr. Carter Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA, sends an email to the group about the development that the nation’s first confirmed case of coronavirus from “exposure in the community” has been under the care of UC Davis Medical Center for a week.  Dr. Mecher  explained: “And given the time from disease onset to being on a ventilator for at least a week (since at least Feb 19 when the patient arrived at UC Davis), the outbreak has had a good head start. That would suggest we already have a significant outbreak and are well behind the curve.  . .You can’t outrun it. They need to be thinking NPIs [lockdowns] locally (full TLC including school closure ).” The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 27, 2020:  On a conference call with a range of health officials, a senior FDA official lashed out at the CDC for its repeated lapses. Jeffrey Shuren, the FDA’s director for devices and radiological health, told the CDC that if it were subjected to the same scrutiny as a privately run lab, “I would shut you down.” Washington Post Investigation The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged by Yasmeen Abutaleb, @yabutaleb7 Ellen Nakashima @nakashimae and Greg Miller @gregpmiller.

 

FEB 27, 2020:  Stories from right-wing websites praising Trump’s handling of the crisis came to dominate the coverage at this time. The Daily Caller labeled Trump’s much-criticized February 27 press conference, in which he presented the overall risk of the coronavirus to Americans as very low, a “master class in crisis management.” A few days later an opinion article on the same site stated that Trump “has got the coronavirus situation completely under control.” How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

FEB 27, 2020: Nancy Pelosi Tweeted: “The House will be advancing a strong, strategic funding package with transparency and accountability that fully addresses the scale and seriousness of this public health crisis.” The U.S. Government must do more to address the spread of #coronavirus in a smart, strategic, and serious way. @SenSchumer & I stand ready to work in a bipartisan fashion in Congress & with the Admin to achieve this goal. This is not the time for name-calling or playing politics. @SpeakerPelosi

 

FEB 27, 2020: Redfield walks back Messonnier’s Feb. 25 comments in House testimony: “I think what Dr. Messonnier was trying to say — I think it maybe could have been done much more articulately from what the American public heard — was she was trying to say it’s also a good time for us to prepare, if we have to go to more mitigation. We’re still committed to get aggressive containment, and I want the American public to know at this point that the risk is low…. We have an aggressive containment strategy that really has worked up to this time.” Redfield says government will roll out coronavirus surveillance, like flu surveillance, over the next six to eight weeks. Senior FDA official reportedly snaps at CDC for testing failures that include not keeping labs sterile, saying that if the agency were a private facility, “I would shut you down.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 27, 2020: Hannity covered the coronavirus and its consequences substantially less than Tucker Carlson and other Fox shows — particularly in February, when the virus was first beginning to spread in the United States. Even after he began discussing it more prominently in February, he downplayed the threat the virus posed. For example, in his show on February 27, Hannity stated: “And today, thankfully, zero people in the United States of America have died from the coronavirus. Zero. Now, let’s put this in perspective. In 2017, 61,000 people in this country died from influenza, the flu. Common flu. Around 100 people die every single day from car wrecks.” Misinformation During a Pandemic published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago bfi.uchicago.edu. @BeckerFriedman.

 

FEB 28, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. Dr. Carter Mecher emails the Red Dawn email chain at 7:31AM: “Italy has emerged as a major exporter of COVID. Above the surface, nothing much was happening in Italy until Feb 2 before that just a few cases reported, on Feb 20 Italy reported a cumulative total of 3 cases/0 deaths). Over the past week things exploded and Italy has exported cases around the world. Things exploded in matter of days (or at least were recognized to have exploded in a matter of days). That is what will likely happen here. It will be that fast and soon the US (because we are a major travel hub/destination could become an exporter of disease like Italy. Think of that wrt [with reference to] the window for implementing community mitigation measures.” The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 28, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. Dr. Carter Mecher emails the Red Dawn email chain at 8:16 AM: “My concern is that a possible scenario is that we become Italy part2. The lesson is that although things might have looked under control on Feb 20 (3 cases / 0 deaths), things obviously weren’t fine. They couldn’t see how large the iceberg was below the water line. They were blind to the extent of disease and the extent of on-going transmission. We have also been flying blind. We see that part of iceberg above the surface.”  The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

FEB 28, 2020:  Red Dawn Email Chain. Dr. Carter Mecher emails the Red Dawn email chain at 9:26 AM and warns that the United States has a narrow window to implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (such as social distancing). “[W]e have a relatively narrow window” to implement nonpharmaceutical interventions, writes Dr. Mecher, senior medical adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs, based on data from the 1918 Spanish Influenza. “And we are flying blind,” he adds. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 28, 2020: White House chief of staff Mulvaney tells attendees of CPAC — the conservative conference — where the coronavirus was spreading: “The reason you’re seeing so much attention to it today is that they think this is what’s going to bring down the president. That’s what this is all about.” Mulvaney insists U.S. is on top of outbreak. “This is something we know how to deal with. We are the best country in the world prepared to do this. We have been preparing for this for years. We know how to handle this…. We’re ahead of the curve already.” I got a note today from a reporter saying, ‘What are you going to do today to calm the markets?’ I’m like, really, what I might do to calm the markets is tell people to turn their televisions off for 24 hours.”  RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory; Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 28, 2020: HHS Secretary Azar said: “Thanks to the President’s historically aggressive containment efforts… everyday Americans don’t need to be worried.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 28, 2020: Community spread is discovered in Washington, Oregon, as well as a second case in California. At a rally Trump claims criticism of his coronavirus response is nonsense, using language he used to describe Mueller investigation and impeachment: “This is their new hoax.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 28, 2020: Dozens of clinical laboratory scientists from across the nation write to Congress asking for permission to create new tests, saying “this regulatory process is significantly more stringent than that required for every other virus we test for.” Forty-seven days after the Chinese had distributed the virus’s genetic sequence, the CDC abandons the test’s once-touted third component. Messonnier announces that the component “can be excluded from testing without affecting accuracy.’’ The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing.

 

FEB 28, 2020: Nearly two months after the administration had first been informed of the coronavirus, NBC reported that the U.S. had done fewer than 500 tests, even as China had done over 300,000 and South Korea was doing 10,000 or more/day. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

FEB 28, 2020: Biden goes on CNN and says Trump has yet to “gain control” of the coronavirus, while calling on Trump to stop downplaying it and urging him instead to “let the experts take this over” and “let the experts speak.”

 

FEB 28, 2020: HHS Secretary Azar said: “We will use the Defense Production Act as necessary to enable that our contracts go to the front of the line on contracting. So that is an authority that we have, and we intend to use it to acquire anything that we need to acquire. We won’t use it unnecessarily, of course. We don’t want to be disruptive if that’s not needed. But if we need to, we will use it. We won’t hesitate.” NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR; A timeline of the US Government response to the Coronavirus pandemic by Julio Marchi @MrMarchi. Looming shortages of N95 masks for healthcare workers and ventilators to help patients breathe prompted pressure from governors, Congress, and experts for the administration to use the Defense Production Act to prioritize U.S. industry’s production of this and other critical equipment. The administration resisted, even though officials had been discussing using the law since mid-January, and it is routinely used in other contexts. The president declined to use the law to procure healthcare supplies to address the crisis reportedly after lobbying from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and corporations. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), a nonpartisan independent watchdog, The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

FEB 28, 2020:  President Trump says that the virus “like a miracle” will disappear. “It’s going to disappear,” says the president. “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”  At a political rally in South Carolina, the president adds: “the democrats are politicizing the coronavirus … this is their new hoax.”  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

FEB 29, 2020: U.S. Recorded Death Toll: 1

First confirmed COVID-19 death, from a nursing home in Washington state. Redfield: “The risk at this time is low. The American public needs to go on with their normal lives….I encourage Americans to go about their life. That includes travel to California, Oregon, and the state of Washington.” In reversal, FDA allows academic and hospital labs begin testing. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

FEB 29, 2020: Nancy Pelosi Tweeted: Sadly and prayerfully, today, we learned of the first death from the #coronavirus in the United States. The American people expect a well-coordinated, fully-funded response that appropriately addresses this public health crisis. @SpeakerPelosi. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

FEB 29, 2020: So far, the CDC and public health labs have tested only 3,999 people nationwide. The FDA announces a new policy to make it easier for hospital laboratories to develop their own tests. The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing April 18, 2020.

 

FEB 29, 2020: The FDA issued a press release titled Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Issues New Policy to Help Expedite Availability of Diagnostics which stated:

 

Today, as part of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s ongoing and aggressive commitment to address the coronavirus outbreak, the agency issued a new policy for certain laboratories seeking to develop diagnostic tests for coronavirus in order to achieve more rapid testing capacity in the U.S. . .

The new policy is for certain laboratories that develop and begin to use validated COVID-19 diagnostics before the FDA has completed review of their Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) requests. . . .

The guidance issued today describes a policy enabling laboratories to immediately use tests they developed and validated in order to achieve more rapid testing capacity in the U.S. . . .

The immediately in effect guidance issued today describes the circumstances where the FDA does not intend to object to the use of these tests for clinical testing while the laboratories are pursuing an EUA with the FDA. Importantly, this policy only applies to laboratories that are certified to perform high-complexity testing consistent with requirements under Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments.

 

Representative Dan Crenshaw, in his viral video entitled “Debunking the Left’s Covid-19 Narrative,” said “Longstanding FDA regulations prevented our private industry from actually developing tests. The Trump Administration reversed those regulations that had been around well over a decade.”  Rep. Crenshaw’s representation is misleading. The FDA’s decision to require private laboratories to obtain FDA approval before developing coronavirus tests was based upon non-binding FDA guidance. The FDA had the ability to allow private labs to develop coronavirus tests from the very beginning of the pandemic. Instead, the FDA approved the CDC’s Emergency Use Authorization (“EUA”) and made a determination that all other laboratories would have to submit an EUA and be approved by the FDA before developing a test. The CDC and the private labs knew that the CDC test failed on February 8. Rather than allow private labs to step in to fill gap in testing, Trump’s CDC issued a press release on February 18 to remind clinical laboratories that they must contact the FDA to obtain an EUA before any COVID-19 diagnostic testing may be performed in their facilities. Lab Advisory: Reminder: COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing. On February 24,  a coalition of public health labs asked FDA commissioner Hahn for permission to make their own tests because “We are now many weeks into the response with still no diagnostic or surveillance test available outside of CDC for the vast majority of our member laboratories.” Two days later, on February 26, FDA Commissioner Hahn denied the request to allow the private labs to develop their own tests despite the fact that he had the authority to grant their request. Letter from FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn to APHL.

 

The FDA had the legal authority to permit the development of a coronavirus test without prior FDA approval. Here’s why. As explained in “Informal Guidance and the FDA,” the FDA “ultimately settled on informal guidance as its policymaking weapon of choice.” In 1992, the FDA increased the formality of guidance by promulgating regulations codifying its “policies and procedures for developing, issuing, and using guidance documents in a document entitled Good Guidance Practices (“GGPs”).” Lewis, K.M. “Informal Guidance and the FDA.” Food and Drug Law Journal, vol. 66, no. 4, 2011, pp. 507–550. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26661202. Accessed 17 Aug. 2020. 21 C.F.R. § 10.115 is the only applicable regulation. It provides that guidance is not legally binding:

• 10.115 Good guidance practices.

(a) What are good guidance practices? Good guidance practices (GGP’s) are FDA’s policies and procedures for developing, issuing, and using guidance documents.

 

(b) What is a guidance document? (1) Guidance documents are documents prepared for FDA staff, applicants/sponsors, and the public that describe the agency’s interpretation of or policy on a regulatory issue.

* * *

(d) Are you or FDA required to follow a guidance document? (1) No. Guidance documents do not establish legally enforceable rights or responsibilities. They do not legally bind the public or FDA.

 

(2) You may choose to use an approach other than the one set forth in a guidance document. However, your alternative approach must comply with the relevant statutes and regulations. FDA is willing to discuss an alternative approach with you to ensure that it complies with the relevant statutes and regulations.

 

(3) Although guidance documents do not legally bind FDA, they represent the agency’s current thinking. Therefore, FDA employees may depart from guidance documents only with appropriate justification and supervisory concurrence.

 

On its website, the FDA explains the difference between regulations and guidance: FDA develops regulations based on the laws set forth in the FD&C Act or other laws under which FDA operates. FDA follows the procedures required by the Administrative Procedure Act, another federal law, to issue FDA regulations. This typically involves a process known as “notice and comment rulemaking” that allows for public input on a proposed regulation before FDA issues a final regulation. FDA regulations are also federal laws, but they are not part of the FD&C Act. FDA regulations can be found in Title 21 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).

FDA follows the procedures required by its “Good Guidance Practice” regulation to issue FDA guidance. FDA guidance describes the agency’s current thinking on a regulatory issue. Guidance is not legally binding on the public or FDA. The Good Guidance Practice regulation can be found at 21 CFR 10.115. What is the difference between the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act), FDA regulations, and FDA guidance?

 

MARCH 1, 2020: The testing breakdown had left the nation blind to the true scope of the outbreak. By March 1st, the CDC’s official tally of coronavirus cases had spiked from the 15 cases touted by Trump to 75. But researchers at Northeastern University have now developed models showing there were likely 28,000 infections at the time, in just five major cities, including New York and Seattle. Rolling Stone The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 1, 2020: Appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Alex Azar claimed that, “In terms of testing kits, we’ve already tested over 3,600 people for the virus.” By comparison, South Korea, a country 1/6th the size of the U.S., which had discovered the virus within its borders on the same day—January 20—had done over 80,000 tests. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 1, 2020: Seeking to reassure the American public, President Trump says there is “no reason to panic” about the virus. The White House also announces that the U.S. is banning travel to Iran and urging Americans not to travel to regions of Italy and South Korea where the virus has been prevalent. Timeline of key events in the spread of the new coronavirus by The Associated Press.

 

MARCH 1, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 11:42 AM, Dr. Mecher warns the Red Dawn email chain that the United States “should have pulled all the triggers for NPIs [nonpharmaceutical interventions] by now.” Writing to the full Red Dawn email chain, Dr. Mecher says that the United States is late to “pull all the triggers” to implement community mitigation strategies such as social distancing. Dr. Eva Lee, a Senior Research Professor at the Atlanta VA Medical Center and professor at Georgia Tech, replies a day later: “We need actions, actions, actions and more actions. We are going to have pockets of epicenters across the country, West coast, East coast and the South. Our policy leaders must act now. Please make it happen!” Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 1, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 11:42 AM, Dr. Mecher warns the Red Dawn email chain that the United States:

Should have pulled all the triggers for NPls by now they are already later than they realize. I fear we are about to see a replay of Italy. Other cities need to learn from Seattle. Eva, I did some back of the envelope estimates of what a 1% threshold means and when I would pull the trigger. I made some estimates using the cruise ship data but then made some adjustments. . . We usually think of the window for implementing NPIs as before 1% prevalence. . . For a city of [1 million] that is 12 serious cases, 250 symptomatic, 1,250 infected. In 2 weeks, these numbers could be 100 serious, 2,000 symptomatic, 10,000 infected (the 1% threshold ). Once you are there, the window is closed. If we assume a 3 week lag from infection onset to death, the number of deaths would be based on a denominator of 3 weeks ago, so divide 1,250 infected by roughly 3 (assume cases triple in a week ), to get 400. Assume a CFR of 0.4%, so about 1 death. More than 1 death per million population is probably too late. We can work backwards from the first critically ill case involving local transmission and no linkage to a known case. If our threshold is 15 cases of seriously ill individuals (really ICU cases ), and cases increase by a factor of 8 over a period of about 2 weeks, the far end of the window is about 2 weeks from when you identify 2 critically ill cases. To give you a cushion, I would be ready to pull the trigger no later than 2 weeks of the first critically ill patient. If we look at the case in CA, that patient had been critically ill for at least a week. That means they had about a week from recognition until the windows starts to close.

So think of time to act.
1. By the time you identify the first death per million population in someone with local

transmission (no linkage to a known case), you need to pull the trigger on NPIs. Looking at Seattle (population of city of Seattle of 740K and population of metro Seattle of 3.5M), I would pull the trigger very soon the window is very close to closing.

2 . No later than 2 weeks from the confirmation of the first critically ill patient per million population. The window is very close to closing for Fairfield/Sacramento CA. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

Representative Dan Crenshaw, in his viral video entitled “Debunking the Left’s Covid-19 Narrative,” said “This is the main point here. If we’re going to look back in time and try to suggest that our government should have shut down everything back in February, well, where’s the evidence for that”? Well, for one thing, there is irrefutable evidence that lockdowns should have been implemented by March 1 in the “Red Dawn” emails that Dr. Eva Lee, a researcher at Georgia Tech and Dr. Carter Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA sent to senior officials at HHS and the CDC warning that schools and businesses must be closed and other Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) must be implemented within one week of the first death in a city. Based upon, among other things, modeling and a statistical analysis of the outbreak in China and aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which provided a treasure trove of data, the researchers explained in February that asymptomatic people were “carrying the virus everywhere,”  Covid-19 is “over 10-30 times more deadly than seasonal flu,” “They were blind to the extent of disease and the extent of on-going transmission,” and the United States “should have pulled all the triggers for NPls [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions e.g. lockdowns] by now [March 1]. . . More than 1 death per million population is probably too late. . . be ready to pull the trigger no later than 2 weeks of the first critically ill patient” which occurred on February 19.  The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection. More specifically, on February 10, 2020 at 7:10AM, Dr. Eva Lee emailed Dr. Carter Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA, Dr. James Lawler, an infectious disease doctor at University of Nebraska, Dr. Duane Caneva, DHS Chief medical officer and Col. Matthew Hepburn, M.D., DARPA program manager at the Department of Defense. Dr. Lee explained that the spread of the coronavirus aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship “also re-enforces the notion that NPI [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions], as in social distancing has to begin now, not later– cannot prepare the future by acting in the future we must rolling it out now.  Ten minutes later, Dr. Mecher responds: “Eva, below is our review of the cruise ship outbreak. . . go back and compare the dynamics of the [Covid-19] outbreak to the spring wave of H1N1, this outbreak is even faster. We are so far behind the curve. I would drop almost everything we are now doing and prepare for implementing TLC [Targeted Layered Containment]  (NPIs) [Non-pharmaceutical Interventions].” Eight days later, after the number of infected passengers was released to the media, Dr. Lee emailed the group: “We predicted the Diamond Princess infection totality before they announced it. What it shows– is that intervention (NPI ) must be done timely. A delayed intervention cannot reverse the course and can be catastrophic. They have far more positive infected cases than they should have, had they intervened differently and swiftly. The health system burden cannot be overemphasized.” Then, on February 24, 2020, Dr. Lee told HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Dr. Robert Kadlec in an email that “Early NPI [nonpharmaceutical interventions-e.g. lockdowns] is a must . . . Even if there is only 1% COVID-19 infection, and within which 20% requires hospitalization, this will already overwhelm our health systems.” The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection. And if the emails are not enough, there is additional evidence in medical journals that should have triggered shut-downs within days of their publication. For instance, in a pre-print of a study entitled The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated published in MedRxiv on February 11, 2020, researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value was likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6, which is highly contagious. They also demonstrated that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. They found that in general, between 40,000 to 140,000 people in Wuhan traveled to destinations outside of Hubei province daily before the lock-down of the city on January 23. They argued that the high R0 and a relatively short incubation period lead to the extremely rapid growth of the of 2019-nCoV outbreak as compared to the 2003 SARS epidemic where R0 was estimated to be between 2.2 to 3.6… and even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus. Finally, subsequent research has confirmed that Dr. Lee and Dr. Carter were correct. For example, on May 29, 2020, researchers from Columbia University published a preprint article on MedRxiv which concluded that if social distancing and other control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have been averted. Specifically, nationwide, 61.6% of reported infections and 55.0% of reported deaths as of May 3, 2020 could have been avoided if the same control measures had been implemented just one week earlier. Had observed control measures been adopted one week earlier, the US would have avoided 703,975 confirmed cases and 35,927 deaths nationwide as of May 3, 2020. A more pronounced control effect would have been achieved had the sequence of control measures occurred two weeks earlier: a reduction of 960,937 cases and 53,990 deaths in the U.S. Sen Pei, Sasikiran Kandula, Jeffrey Shaman,

Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States,

medRxiv 2020.05.15.20103655; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655.

 

And a study in STAT titled How many needless Covid-19 deaths were caused by delays in responding? Most of them, published on June 19, 2020 by Isaac Sebenius and James K. Sebenius explained that in the wake of the U.S. response, 117,858 Americans died in the four months following the first 15 confirmed cases. After an equivalent period, Germany suffered only 8,863 casualties. Scaling up the German population of 83.7 million to America’s 331 million, a U.S.-sized Germany would have suffered 35,049 Covid-19 deaths. So if the U.S. had acted as effectively as Germany, 70% of U.S. coronavirus deaths might have been prevented. Seventy percent was the most conservative estimate. Scaled-up versions of South Korea, Australia, and Singapore would have experienced 1,758, 1,324, and 1,358 deaths, respectively, in the four months after 15 cases were confirmed in each country. Had the U.S. handled the coronavirus as effectively as any of these three countries, roughly 99% of the 117,858 U.S. Covid-19 deaths might have been averted. These conclusions were strengthened by their consistency with the results from different methodologies. Two notable epidemiological projections, based on theoretical models of transmission and “idealized hypothetical assumptions,” have estimated that between 80% and 90% of American deaths could have been averted had lockdowns and social distancing begun two weeks earlier.

 

MARCH 1, 2020: In an interview with Jake Tapper on CNN’s State of the Union, Biden says: “We knew that this was coming. Back as far as January. They didn’t even begin to prepare the testing kits…Donald Trump said just several days ago this was a Democratic hoax. What in God’s name is he talking about? Has he no shame?” Source: Devan Cole, “Biden Slams Trump Administration’s Response to Coronavirus Outbreak,” cnn.com, Mar. 1, 2020. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden with Background and Context @procon_org.

 

MARCH 2, 2020: On his show, Hannity strongly emphasized that Democrats were politicizing the virus, claiming that “[Democrats] are now using the natural fear of a virus as a political weapon. And we have all the evidence to prove it, a shameful politicizing, weaponizing of, yes, the coronavirus.” While he began in early March to discuss the mortality statistics in more detail, he continued to emphasize that the virus still posed a relatively minor threat to US citizens. Misinformation During a Pandemic published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago bfi.uchicago.edu. @BeckerFriedman.

 

MARCH 2, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. Dr. Mecher sends an email to the Red Dawn group. 6 deaths in Seattle. Seattle missed the window . . It is too late for NPls. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 3, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 3:53PM, Dr. Eva Lee, an American operations researcher at Georgia Tech, sends a reply to the email chain:

1. Social distancing, NPI can deter the spread

Singapore and Hong Kong prove that without any definitive treatment and absence of any prophylactic MCM [Medical Counter-Measure] protection, closing schools, home-office business can make a huge difference. I ran a few models for school closure and business tele-work for Santa Clara, King County and I want to share some graphs here.

[The graphs showed that without intervention, infections in Santa Clara would increase from 640 on 3/31/2020 to 9,724 on 4/30/2020 to 139,744 on 5/31/2020 to 911,204 on 6/29/2020. In contrast, if both schools and business closed on 3/3/20, the curve would stay nearly flat with perhaps dozens of cases. If only schools closed on 3/17, by 6/29/20, there would be almost 25,000 infections. If schools and businesses closed on 3/10, by 6/29, there would be about 10,000 infections compared to 911,204 with no interventions. In short, the graphs show that if lockdowns had been implemented two weeks earlier, it would have had a dramatic impact on the progression of the pandemic.]

2. Quarantine a city ?

If we can contain 80% of the people’s movement (as Hong Kong and Singapore, or in the Santa Clara model above), you can see that we are stopping the spread. . . The closing schools and tele-work in a sense is volunteering quarantine. It can work beautifully and very effectively. . . So the effort is volunteering quarantine of their own residents and then quarantine for everyone who enters the city. Together, it puts a brake on the spread. It is right to do it now. 

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 3, 2020: Death Toll: 9

A Washington state teenager with no risk factors test positive in Seattle Flu Study testing. Dr. Chu will say it’s then she realized: “It’s just everywhere already.”

Trump is asked if “it’s inevitable that the coronavirus will spread across the country?” Trump responds: ”I don’t think that’s inevitable at all.”

Azar: “For the average American, in your daily life, the risk of getting coronavirus — the novel coronavirus — is very low.”

Redfield: “We’re going to continue to see new cases diagnosed in the community across this country. But… I want these new cases to be viewed as a success, in one sense, of our effective public health community, and not a failure.”

Pence claims no CDC limits on testing other than a doctor’s order. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 3, 2020: Vice President Pence announces that the CDC will lift federal restrictions on testing for the coronavirus: “we will issue new guidance from the CDC that will make it clear that any American can be tested with no restrictions, subject to doctor’s orders. . . . We are issuing new guidance, effective immediately, from the CDC that will make it clear that any clinician on health authority can administer the test.” Press Briefing by Vice President Pence. But major problems with testing remain, making it difficult to get a test. NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR @NPR.

 

MARCH 3, 2020: At a Senate health committee hearing on the emerging threat of the novel coronavirus, Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), ranking member of the committee, pressed public health officials on the critical need for a comprehensive, fact-driven response. At the hearing, Senator Murray asked officials from the CDC, National Institutes of Health (NIH), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) about our ability to quickly scale up testing, following reports of new cases across the country and in Washington state. “The Administration had months to prepare for this—and it is unacceptable that people at risk of infection in my state and nationwide can’t even get an answer as to whether or not they are infected.  To put it simply, if someone at the White House or in this Administration is actually in charge of responding to the coronavirus, it would be news to anyone in my state.  And I have been on the phone with officials for days now,” continued Senator Murray.

 

MARCH 4, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 1:54PM, Dr. Eva Lee, an American operations researcher at Georgia Tech, emails Dr. Carter Mecher, Senior Medical Advisor at the VA and the others on the email chain:

Carter, please review the information I sent regarding the NPI intervention model I sent for Santa Clara yesterday. . . [B]y the time we are seeing the citizens’ symptoms and complaints, we are a few weeks late already. The “unknown” cases are out there already. Those with no/mild symptoms, or doesn’t really matter if there’s any symptoms or not, the 1 case in Santa Clara on Jan 31 is real. It’s one–and as we see in the model– one case is one case too many already, because it’s already growing. Because it means there’re others we don’t know. . . It is really quite difficult to use disease surveillance as a guide, because that is for sure late at least by 2 weeks if not more weeks. The moment the first case appears, we’re late already by 2 weeks. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 4, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 2:19 PM, Dr. Carter Mecher, replies to Dr. Eva Lee and the other officials in the email group:

Eva, I agree with you. Political leaders and public health leaders need to be convinced of the utility of these interventions and the courage to act. If they miss the window to act, they don’t get a do-over. Can’t take a Mulligan with NPIs. There is no reset button to play the game again. You only get one shot. I fear that Seattle may have missed their opportunity. Out of desperation I predict they may eventually implement and endure all the downsides of NPIs with marginal to little upside. This is exactly what happened in 1918. A while back I shared some slides on the lessons learned from 1918. Unfortunately, we have to learn some lessons again and again.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 4, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. At 2:36  PM, Dr. Carter Mecher, emails Dr. Eva Lee and the other officials in the email group:

The US is now up to 11deaths (10 in Washington and 1 in California). I think there is a disconnect among very smart people. They hear the high % of patients who are asymptomatic or have mild illness and they equate this to a mild outbreak. Hard for me to understand how they come to this conclusion.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 4, 2020: Death Toll: 11

Trump in appearance on Hannity: “We have hundreds of thousands of people who get better just by sitting around and even going to work. Some of them go to work, but they get better.” Muses on death rate: “I think the 3.4 percent number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations … personally, I’d say the number is way under 1 percent.” Pence makes wild claim of testing availability: “We’ll have over a million tests in the field today.” One million tests will not be completed until the end of the month.

Redfield: “Although we’re continuing to see new community cases in this nation, the overall risk to the American public at this time still remains low.” Congress passes $8.3 billion coronavirus spending package. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

EARLY MARCH 2020: Dr. Steven Hahn (Commissioner of the FDA) relaxes rules regulating whether hospitals and labs can create their own tests. The regulations, which were activated by Secretary Azar’s emergency declaration, were supposed to allow the FDA to speed up the approval process for new vaccines and therapies during a crisis. Instead, they constrained the ability of researchers to create new Covid-19 tests. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 4, 2020: Trump says “the Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion. That was a decision we disagreed with. I don’t think we would have made it, but for some reason it was made. But we’ve undone that decision.” It’s not clear what regulation Trump and Redfield have in mind, and neither the White House, FDA, nor the CDC responded to requests for more information. But experts told Factcheck.org  that no such “rule” was implemented under Obama. “It’s not true,” said Rachel Sachs, a Washington University in St. Louis law professor, of Trump’s claim in a phone interview. The Obama administration did attempt to impose a risk-based system of regulation on laboratory developed tests, or LDTs, and introduced draft guidance in 2014. But that guidance was never finalized, and was withdrawn after Trump won the election in 2016. “It never went into effect,” she said, “so it’s not an issue to walk back.” Factcheck.org  Trump’s Misplaced Blame on Obama for Coronavirus Tests by Jessica McDonald @jjmcdona @factcheckdotorg. Trump may have been referring to the Feb. 29 FDA announcement, allowing labs to use their own tests before getting an emergency use authorization approved by the FDA. But that announcement allowed an exception to a de facto FDA policy; there was no “rule” that needed to be overturned. Factcheck.org April 2, 2020 by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 5, 2020: Trump says at a Fox News town hall: But as soon as I heard that China had a problem, I said, “What’s going on with China? How many people are coming in?” … [Y]ou both know that I closed the borders very early. …. You know, it saved a lot of lives. Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 5, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. An email sent at 8:55AM to the email group stated:

I utilized the attack rate of 20% that was experienced on the Diamond Princess so that could begin to help people get their head around what is perceived to be a mild outbreak means. I purposely used an actual event (and actual attack rate) for comparison so as not to be

perceived as fear mongering. I sense confusion among very smart people (politicians, physicians, public health leaders hear that more than 80% of those who are infected have mild disease and that overall case fatality rates are on the order of 0.5%. And they then equate these stats to a mild outbreak. They really don’t consider attack rates and the impact of the 20% with something other than mild illness means. A more reasonable attack rate to plan for is around 40%, so just double everything in the attached reports. You all can look at these projections and envision what will happen to our healthcare system if we don’t take aggressive actions to slow community transmission now. The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 6, 2020: The Washington Post published a piece by William Hanage @BillHanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health titled Testing for the coronavirus might have stopped it. Now it’s too late which stated:

The disease spread unchecked in the United States because we didn’t look for it.

The first thing officials need when responding to an infectious disease is a way to test for it — a way to tell who has it and who is at risk. Dozens of such test procedures have been produced in the scant weeks since covid-19 announced itself to the world by shutting down Wuhan, China, a city the size of New York. Public health agencies around the globe have generated huge amounts of data on how well these tests work and have rolled them out on a massive scale. South Korea alone has tested more than 100,000 of its citizens.

But the United States has lagged far behind the rest of the world in testing for the new coronavirus. As a result, outbreaks here are likely to be more numerous and more difficult to control than they would have been otherwise. I research infectious disease and how to fight it, so I know how important it is to detect outbreaks early. The covid-19 outbreak is the largest acute infectious-disease emergency most of us have experienced. And we may have let it go undetected here for too long. Testing for the virus is like turning on the light. If you don’t test, you cannot know where it is spreading. And if you don’t know where it is spreading, you cannot mount an effective response. How different countries affected by covid-19 have tested for it shows what can be done and the consequences of failure.

 

MARCH 6, 2020: President Trump falsely claims that any American who wants a COVID-19 test can get a test. “Anybody that wants a test can get a test,” he says to reporters after a tour of the CDC in Atlanta.  “That’s what the bottom line is.”  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 6, 2020:  The U.S. had conducted 1,326 tests, according to data collected by The COVID Tracking Project, including tests with results pending. The group, run by journalists, researchers, scientists and others, says it attempts to provide “the number of people being tested, not specimens submitted,” but it also notes state public health authorities, the source of the bulk of the data, are inconsistent in the way they report their information and the quality of their data varies. Factcheck.org Trump’s Spin on ‘Broken’ Testing April 2, 2020 by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 6, 2020: A modeling study published in Science magazine, titled “The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak,” concluded that, “In areas affected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), travel restrictions will only modestly impact the spread of the outbreak,” according to a press release for the study. Factcheck.org, The Facts on Trump’s Travel Restrictions by Robert Farley [Not on Twitter].

 

MARCH 6, 2020: President Trump fires acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and announces Representative Mark Meadows (R-NC) as his replacement.  Wikipedia.

 

MARCH 7, 2020: The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises. In South Korea, more than 66,650 people were tested within a week of its first case of community transmission, and it quickly became able to test 10,000 people a day. The United Kingdom, which has only 115 positive cases, has so far tested 18,083 people for the virus. The Atlantic Exclusive: The Strongest Evidence Yet That America Is Botching Coronavirus Testing by Robinson Meyer @yayitsrob and Alexis C. Madrigal  @alexismadrigal @TheAtlantic.

 

MARCH 7, 2020: Trump golfs at Trump International. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 7, 2020:  Death Toll: 19

Pence appears in Florida with cruise industry executives. “We want to be clear that it is safe for healthy Americans to travel.” Other than seniors with serious underlying health conditions, Pence said: “Americans can confidently travel in this country. Confidently enjoy the benefits of this country…. The American people can continue to go about their business.”

Redfield: “At this time the risk to the American people is low in most areas of the United States…. One thing that we can all take pride in is that this country has the best public health infrastructure…. Florida is no exception in being prepared. I would encourage people to go after their regular daily lives…. I would not encourage anyone to change their plans…. They should enjoy Disneyland they should enjoy the rest of Florida. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 7, 2020: Politico led with “Trump’s mismanagement helped fuel coronavirus crisis,” an in-depth feature by Dan Diamond @ddiamond exploring the impact of the Trump administration’s internal dysfunctions on their crisis management response. The article confirmed that onerous regulations and Trump’s lack of policy engagement were key elements in the test delays and that “Trump’s aides discouraged [HHS Secretary Alex] Azar from briefing the president about the coronavirus threat back in January” because Trump “rewards those underlings who tell him what he wants to hear while shunning those who deliver bad news.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 8, 2020: The nation’s public labs were not fully up and running on the CDC test until March 8th, according to HHS, about the time Quest and LabCorp finally began testing in their labs. Rolling Stone The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 8, 2020:  Death Toll: 22

South Korea and the United States each identified their first coronavirus case on the same day; South Korea has tested 189,236, the United States 1,707. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 8, 2020: Trump golfs at Trump International. He tweets, “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine-tuned plan at the White House for our attack on Coronavirus….The Fake News Media is doing everything possible to make us look bad. Sad!” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 9, 2020: According to a study released by Cedars-Sinai, “By March 1, more than 9,000 people in the U.S. may have already been infected by COVID-19 (coronavirus), far more than the number that had been publicly reported. This suggests that the opportunity window to contain the epidemic of COVID-19 in its early stage is closing.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

MARCH 9, 2020:  Once there was no denying that the pandemic was in and around us, the conservative news media coverage shifted to “it’s not so bad and it won’t last too long.” American Thinker’s March 9 story “Coronavirus Codswallop” stated that the statistics about the pandemic “should be taken with a grain of salt.” A day earlier, the New York Post told its readers that “the spread of the virus continues to slow.”  How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

MARCH 9, 2020:  Trump Tweeted, “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of Coronavirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” The Washington Post Timeline: The more than 50 times Trump has downplayed the coronavirus threat by Aaron Blake @AaronBlake and JM Rieger @RiegerReport. The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts. Scientific American Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges by Jeremy Samuel Faust [not on Twitter]. The annual flu mortality figures published by the CDC are estimates produced by plugging laboratory-confirmed deaths into a mathematical model that attempts to correct for undercounting. Covid-19 death figures represent a literal count of people who have either tested positive for the virus or whose diagnosis was based on meeting certain clinical and epidemiological criteria. To get a more accurate comparison, one must start with the number of directly confirmed flu deaths, which the CDC tracks on an annual basis. In the past seven flu seasons, going back to 2013, that tally fluctuated between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths. Note that these numbers are very different from the CDC’s final official flu death estimates. For 2018-2019, for instance, the 7,172 confirmed flu deaths translated to a final estimate of between 26,339 and 52,664 deaths. Again, that’s because the CDC plugs the confirmed deaths into a model that attempts to adjust for what many epidemiologists believe is a severe undercount. Using an apples-to-apples comparison, we can say that the coronavirus and the disease it causes, covid-19, have already killed eight times as many people as the flu. By the time we get data for the entire season, the difference appears likely to be at least tenfold, or a full order of magnitude. The Washington Post, There’s a more accurate way to compare coronavirus deaths to the flu by Christopher Ingraham @_cingraham.

 

MARCH 9, 2020:  ‘4m tests by the end of the week’

Former Trump homeland security adviser Tom Bossert publishes an op-ed: “It’s now or never for the US if it hopes to keep coronavirus from burning out of control.” This virus is such a threat because it is both highly infectious and lethal, and not enough people are being tested, despite significant recent effort by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By the time cases are confirmed, significant community transmission has likely already occurred. This is a classic tip-of-the-iceberg phenomenon. It’s also akin to looking at a star; the light we see today was emitted some time ago. But the most useful comparison now is to a fire that threatens to burn out of control. It is one we can still contain, even extinguish — if we act. In an evening news conference, White House officials say the United States will have tested 1 million people that week and thereafter perform 4m tests per week. “We’ve been moving progressively to bring that test closer and closer and closer to the patient,” Azar says. The number was false by multiple orders of magnitude. Through 12 March, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had completed 4,000 tests – not 4 million. The Guardian ‘It will disappear’: the disinformation Trump spread about the coronavirus – timeline by @TeeMcSee @guardian @guardian.

 

MARCH 9, 2020: Probably the most important and influential story coming from the right during the pandemic was Tucker Carlson’s commentary published March 10 on FoxNews.com (and delivered by Carlson on the network the night before). He was virtually alone among conservative commentators in stating unequivocally that the virus will get worse, and he called upon the country’s leaders to stop lying about it. (It’s worth noting that he had visited the president days before to deliver the message in person.) By March 13, President Trump had changed his tune and acknowledged the challenge facing the world. It was a watershed moment in the administration’s approach to the coronavirus. How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

MARCH 10, 2020:  Asked about the economic impact of the coronavirus, Trump says, “We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 10, 2020: Vice President Pence announces that over 1 million tests have been distributed and that 4 million would be distributed by the end of the week. But as of April 12, the United States has conducted only 2 million tests and states continue to report testing shortages. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 10, 2020:  As more than 1,000 people were confirmed to be infected across the United States – HHS Secretary Azar said, “we don’t know exactly how many” patients have been tested for COVID-19 at this point. He added HHS was still working to get a reporting system in place to track testing, with the hopes of doing so by mid-March. The same day, CDC Director Robert Redfield admitted that even if the test works, U.S. labs may not have an adequate stock of the supplies necessary to “operationalize” the test. Dr. Redfield said he did not know how CDC would handle a shortage of these critical testing supplies, which could further delay testing and reporting and therefore delay response efforts. letter from Senator Patty Murray to Christi Grimm, Inspector General at HHS. Global Biodefense @GlobalBioD.

 

MARCH 10, 2020:  Hannity stated: So far in the United States, there has been around 30 deaths, most of which came from one nursing home in the state of Washington. Healthy people, generally, 99 percent recover very fast, even if they contract it. Twenty six people were shot in Chicago alone over the weekend. You notice there’s no widespread hysteria about violence in Chicago. According to a rigorous scientific study, Misinformation During a Pandemic published by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago bfi.uchicago.edu. @BeckerFriedman, the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States — Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News – originally took very different stances on the risks associated with the novel coronavirus. While Hannity downplayed the threat during the initial period of the virus’ spread in the United States, Tucker Carlson Tonight warned its viewers that the virus posed a serious threat from early February. The researchers concluded that Hannity’s viewers changed behavior in response to the virus later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson’s viewers changed behavior earlier and that greater exposure to Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight increased the number of total cases and deaths in the initial stages of the coronavirus pandemic. The paper says viewership of Hannity relative to Carlson is associated with approximately 30% more COVID-19 cases by March 14, and 21% more COVID-19 deaths by March 28. “In line with the differences in content, we find that Hannity’s viewers on average changed their behavior in response to the coronavirus five days later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson’s viewers changed behavior three days earlier than other Fox News viewers,” the authors wrote. NPR Study Finds More COVID-19 Cases Among Viewers Of Fox News Host Who Downplayed Pandemic by @natalieymoore.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain. An email sent at 12:15PM to the email group stated:

4.The US (along with most of Europe) is less than 2 weeks behind Italy. We should be learning from the experiences of China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Italy. If we fail to learn from them, we do so at our peril. History will long remember what we do and what we don’t do at this critical moment. It is the time to act, and it is past the

time to remain silent. This outbreak isn’t going to magically disappear on its own. If that is the conclusion some are taking, they are misinformed and dead wrong.

The New York Times Red Dawn Email Collection.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: CNN posted an investigative piece entitled “Confusion over the availability and criteria for coronavirus testing is leaving sick people wondering if they’re infected.” As the article noted, “only 11,079 specimens [have] been tested in the U.S., paling in comparison to the more than 230,000 people tested in South Korea, which has about one sixth the US population.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

MARCH 11, 2020: Dr. Bright repeatedly urged HHS leadership to secure and expand the supply of COVID-19 testing materials, such as swabs to collect the virus specimen, Viral Transport Media (“VTM”) to transport the swabs to a laboratory, and chemical reagents to perform the test. On March 11, 2020, anticipating a shortage of these materials as testing ramped up around the country, Dr. Bright asked Mr. Adams [Acting Director of SNS (January 2020 to March 2020)] for the SNS’s [Strategic National Stockpile] inventory of chemical reagent, swabs, and VTM. To Dr. Bright’s surprise, Mr. Adams informed him that the SNS did not stock these items, and did not offer to assist in procuring them. Complaint.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: During a House oversight hearing on coronavirus preparedness and response, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci says the estimated COVID-19 mortality rate is 10 times worse than the seasonal flu and “Bottom line: It’s going to get worse.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: Senators Cory Booker and Robert Menendez, both Democrats from New Jersey, ask the administration questions about screening procedures at major airports, citing reports that people are not being screened despite coming from high-risk countries. (Days later, a former RAND Corporation healthcare expert publishes a highly critical op-ed of screening procedures that she experienced at Dulles International Airport outside of Washington, DC.) The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: The World Health Organization (WHO) declares that COVID-19 is a global health pandemic. Later that same day: President Trump announces new travel restrictions from Europe. In a prime time Oval Office address to the nation, President Trump announces new travel restrictions to and from 26 European countries, says that the United States has taken early intense action, and commends the “dramatically fewer cases of the virus in the United States than are now present in Europe.” Trump misspeaks while reading the teleprompter suggesting cargo and trade are also affected. Markets tank. As with the previous travel bans, there are exceptions for U.S. citizens. The restrictions also initially exclude the U.K. and Ireland, though they are included in the ban later. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin;  Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im; NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: The president’s advance notice of the partial European ban almost certainly played an important part in bringing the infection to greater New York City. Because of the two-day “warning” Trump gave in his speech, every seat on every airplane from Europe to the U.S. over the next two days was filled. Airport and customs offices at the arrival airports in the U.S. were unprepared and overwhelmed. News footage showed travelers queued for hours, shoulder to shoulder, waiting to be admitted to the U.S. Some of those travelers already were suffering from the disease; they spread it to others. On March 11, New York had slightly more than 220 diagnosed cases. Two weeks later, it had more than 25,000. Genetic testing showed that most of the infection in New York was from the coronavirus variant that had come through Europe to the United States, rather than directly from China (where most of the early cases in Washington State originated). The Atlantic The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything by James Fallows @JamesFallows.

 

MARCH 11, 2020: Trump’s Oval Office address drew plaudits from the New York Post (“Trump Passes Coronavirus Test with Flying Colors”) and FoxNews.com (“Trump Coronavirus Response Will Protect America’s Economy, Workers and Businesses”).

How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: Dr. Bright attended a hearing before the House Oversight and Reform Committee on coronavirus preparedness and response. During the hearing, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield testified repeatedly that the real “challenge” associated with implementing a national testing strategy would be supplying the requisite laboratory technicians, laboratory equipment, swabs, reagents, and other supplies necessary to perform the tests that already were in the marketplace. Dr. Redfield told the Committee, “I want to really emphasize – we focus so much on the actual test – we have to focus now on the whole system to get that testing really rolled out.” In listening to Dr. Redfield’s testimony, Dr. Bright grew increasingly concerned that there would be a severe shortage of testing materials, including swabs, as testing increased nationwide. While sitting behind Dr. Redfield in the Congressional Hearing, Dr. Bright immediately instructed BARDA staff, including Deputy Director of Diagnostics and Medical Devices Rosemary Humes, to find out more about potential shortages and to compile a list of swab manufacturers in the event they needed to shore up the U.S. supply. He also sent an email to Dr. Johnson and Dr. Disbrow stating, “I need details on reagents [in] short supply. And swabs in short supply.” Dr. Johnson responded in part, “We heard you and are working on this. . . . everyone I’m talking to says there is no swab shortage[.]” Dr. Disbrow likewise responded in part, “Two people have indicated that [information regarding a swab shortage] may not be correct. Who has stated that there is an issue[?]” Despite Dr. Johnson’s and Dr. Disbrow’s skepticism about the impending shortages, Dr. Bright persisted. He told them, “They [at the CDC] are referencing shortage of reagents. Shortage of swabs. Shortage of people in the labs,” and urged them, “Forget about shortage terminology. What swab options do we have[?] Where are they made?” Complaint.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: Early in the afternoon, Ms. Humes [Deputy Director of Diagnostics and Medical Devices] informed Dr. Bright that the CDC had “confirmed that some [testing] sites are reporting that supplies are getting low,” but that the FDA had assigned the matter to a “shortages team,” and the team did not anticipate a shortage of swabs because the two primary manufacturers had “huge manufacturing capacity.” Dr. Bright and Dr. Disbrow then called FDA Director of the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Dr. Jeffrey Shuren, to learn where the FDA purchased its swabs. To Dr. Bright’s dismay, Dr. Shuren informed them that the FDA purchased its swabs from a manufacturer located in the Lombardy region of Italy – the epicenter of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak which had been placed under lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus. Dr. Bright and Dr. Disbrow immediately contacted the DOD Defense Threat Reduction Agency (“DTRA”), which assisted BARDA with the transport of vaccines from Germany to the U.S. during the Ebola epidemic, to determine whether military flights could be used to transport swabs from Italy to the U.S. in the event that commercial planes could not because of the lockdown. Complaint.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: More than two months after the administration first became aware of the virus, “only about 11,000 people have been tested, according to figures shared with members of Congress. According to statistics compiled by the American Enterprise Institute, nationwide capacity to process the test kits being distributed has so far ramped up only to about 20,000 people per day – meaning it could be weeks before any tested patient gets results. The article pointed out that South Korea tests in a single day the number of people the U.S. has tested in over two months, with drive-up exams which aren’t possible in the U.S. due to strict testing guidelines. RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: Joe Biden @JoeBiden released his COVID-19 response plan on his website which calls for, among other things, free testing, treatment, and eventual vaccine for all regardless of insurance. The Biden Plan to Combat Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Prepare for Future Global Health Threats.   Biden explained his response plan in a speech live-streamed from Wilmington, Delaware: “I lay out the immediate steps we have to take to deliver one decisive public health response to curb the spread of the disease and to provide treatment to those who need it, and a decisive economic response that delivers real relief to American workers, families, and small businesses.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline @procon_org.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: Biden gives a speech stressing the importance of presidential truth-telling amid crises, noting that Trump’s ongoing falsifications risk leaving Americans without reliable guidance, compounding “public fears.” The Washington Post Trump vs. Biden on coronavirus: The timeline is utterly damning by Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: Death Toll: 41

HHS makes a modest $4.8 million order for N95 masks from 3M — its first purchase to protect frontline workers. Fauci testifies to Congress about testing: “The system is not really geared to what we need right now. That is a failing. It is a failing, let’s admit it.… the idea of anybody getting it, easily, the way people in other countries are doing it — we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be? Yes. But we are not.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 12, 2020:  Trump claims that travelers to the United States are being systematically tested. (They’re not.) “We have a tremendous testing setup where people coming in have to be tested and if they are positive and if they’re able to get through because frankly if they are not, we are not putting them on planes if it shows positive….Frankly, the testing has been going very smooth. If you go to the right agency, if you go to the right area, you get the test.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: Red Dawn Email Chain.  A professor of internal medicine writes in the Red Dawn email chain that senior officials are throwing “15 years of institutional learning out the window and are making decisions based on intuition.” Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 12, 2020: The FDA authorizes for use the first privately developed test for the coronavirus. The next day it gives the go-ahead to another. These private-sector tests are touted as key to expanding testing capacity, but ramp-up remains slow. (Source) NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR @NPR.

 

MARCH 13, 2020: President Trump declares a national emergency and promises a new website to link Americans to testing sites. President Trump declares that the coronavirus pandemic is a national emergency. Asked about the administration’s epic failure to ramp up testing, Trump declares: “I don’t take responsibility at all.” Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin;  RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 13, 2020: President Trump: “Interestingly, if you go back — please — if you go back to the swine flu, it was nothing like this. They didn’t do testing like this. And actually, they lost approximately 14,000 people. And they didn’t do the testing. They started thinking about testing when it was far too late,” the president said at a press briefing. No, President Trump, the Coronavirus Is Nothing Like H1N1 Swine Flu Either @charlesornstein @ProPublica. This is blatantly wrong. Diagnostic tests for the swine flu were approved and shipped out less than two weeks after the H1N1 virus was identified and a day before the first death in the United States.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identified the first case of the virus on April 14, 2009. The Obama administration declared swine flu a public health emergency on April 26. The Food and Drug Administration approved a rapid test for the virus two days later. At the time, the C.D.C. had reported 64 cases and zero deaths. The C.D.C. began shipping test kits to public health laboratories on May 1 (at 141 cases and one death) and a second test was approved in July. From May to September 2009, the agency shipped more than 1,000 kits, each one able to test 1,000 specimens. Trump’s False Claims About His Response to the Coronavirus by Linda Qiu @YLindaQiu.

 

MARCH 13, 2020:  Conservative media criticism of Democrats intensified as the crisis grew. A RedState article accused Joe Biden of plagiarizing Trump’s plan to combat the “Wuhan” virus. March 13 articles on Breitbart and American Greatness stated that the coronavirus spread because the Democrats diverted the attention of the country with the impeachment effort. Community Digital News ran an inflammatory headline calling House Speaker Nancy Pelosi “the ringleader of Dems’ covid-19 relief thievery.” The body of the story called her a “bitch” who “pisses on American’s [sic] collective leg.” How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

MARCH 13, 2020:  Fifty-seven House Democrats sent an open letter to Trump, asking him to trigger the Defense Production Act.  RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 13, 2020: As Dr. Disbrow [Deputy Assistant Secretary and Director of Medical Countermeasures Programs, BARDA] rightly predicted, Dr. Kadlec was resistant to even discussing the swab transport plan that he and Dr. Bright were trying to arrange with DOD. During an [Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response] ASPR leadership call that afternoon, Dr. Bright attempted to brief Dr. Kadlec on the imminent swab shortages and critical need to find alternate transportation in the event that commercial planes could not fly to Italy because of the lockdown. Dr. Kadlec aggressively shot him down and in a hostile tone said, “I don’t care about swabs. I don’t want to hear about swabs. Move on.” Even after Dr. Disbrow told Dr. Kadlec that they had secured an option to fly military planes into Italy if they were able to obtain Secretary Azar’s approval, Dr. Kadlec refused to discuss the matter. Since Dr. Bright and Dr. Disbrow would need Dr. Kadlec’s support to seek the Secretary’s approval for the military flights they seemingly had reached a dead end that could have had dire public health consequences. Complaint.

 

MARCH 14, 2020: Determined to secure a safe, reliable air bridge to Italy before the U.S. experienced a critical shortage of testing swabs, Dr. Bright turned to Mr. Navarro, his ally in the White House. Dr. Bright emailed White House Senior Policy Advisor Christopher Abbott, a member of Mr. Navarro’s staff, to facilitate communication with Secretary of Defense Mark Esper about approving the military flights through the DOD. Mr. Navarro’s office worked quickly and secured Secretary Esper’s approval in a matter of hours. Approximately two hours later, Maj. Froude confirmed that DTRA [Defense Threat Reduction Agency] was “working to have a flight in the air as soon as tomorrow night.” Later that evening, Dr. Bright emailed Mr. Navarro, “You did something miraculous tonight to break through the wall and bureaucratic barrier that was stalling shipment from Italy to US. Four days of bureaucracy that you broke down in 5 minutes.” As a result of Dr. Bright’s persistence in the face of Dr. Kadlec’s hostility and opposition to his and Dr. Disbrow’s plan, BARDA’s partnership with the military has been able to transport 25 million swabs to the United States to address the dire shortage of this critical medical supply. Complaint.

 

MARCH 14, 2020:  An article posted by VOX, which according to its founding editors seeks to explain news by providing additional contextual information not usually found in traditional news sources, titled Coronavirus is already here. Blocking travelers won’t prevent its spread by Nicole Narea @nicolenarea explained: Despite President Donald Trump’s sweeping ban on non-US-citizen travelers from Europe and now the UK, the consensus among public health experts is clear: At this point, restricting travel can’t prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Epidemiologists have long observed the failure of travel restrictions to contain other infectious diseases, such as influenza. It also seems to be true in the case of the coronavirus outbreak so far: China and Italy both adopted stringent restrictions on domestic and international travel but were unable to avert a pandemic. It’s true that case numbers finally started dropping recently in China, but as epidemiologist Bruce Aylward told Vox’s Julia Belluz, that can mostly be attributed to efforts to educate the public, identify cases, and rapidly isolate them. But there’s only a small window in which the restrictions can be effective, and for the US, that opportunity passed weeks ago. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported more than 1,600 cases nationwide as of March 13, but due to insufficient testing, there are likely many more cases that have gone unidentified. Congress’s in-house doctor told staffers on Wednesday that 70 million to 150 million people in the US could eventually be infected. At this point, there’s just too much community transmission for travel restrictions to make much of a difference. “Border closures have not stopped the spread of this virus or prevented it from becoming a pandemic,” Jennifer Nuzzo, @JenniferNuzzo a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Vox. “Now that we have local transmission within the United States, looking outward to control the virus makes even less sense.”

 

MID-MARCH 2020: The first stories suggesting that the remedies to battle covid-19 were worse than the actual disease began showing up in mid-March. A number of media outlets voiced this perspective, including the Washington Times, The Federalist, and BernardGoldberg.com. The Epoch Times expressed a similar concern and added, “For a disease that so far has extracted a relatively small death toll and from which a quarter of those infected have already recovered, why are we reacting as if Covid-19 is the second coming of the Black Death?”  How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

MARCH 15, 2020: Biden responds to Trump’s statement that “I don’t take responsibility at all, by reiterating his call for widespread free testing, and by declaring: “It is the job of the president to take responsibility — and his response is unacceptable.” The Washington Post Trump vs. Biden on coronavirus: The timeline is utterly damning by Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS.

 

MARCH 15, 2020:  “We will have 1.9 million of these high-throughput tests available this week with numerous labs, up to 2,000, starting to turn the lights on beginning this week.”

— Adm. Brett Giroir, the “testing czar” at the Department of Health and Human Services. According to the COVID Tracking Project, there weren’t 1.9 million test results completed until April 6. NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR @NPR;  A timeline of the US Government response to the Coronavirus pandemic by Julio Marchi @MrMarchi.

 

MID-MARCH 2020: Federal agencies begin placing bulk orders on N95 masks, ventilators, and other medical equipment.  Based on a review of federal purchasing contracts by the Associated Press, the Trump administration only starts to place bulk orders on necessary medical equipment in mid-March. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 15, 2020: Death Toll: 69

CDC recommends against gatherings of more than 50 people. New York City announces school, restaurant, bar gym closures. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 16, 2020:  London’s Imperial College unveils a new study that predicts at least 2.2 million people could die from the coronavirus in the U.S. without mitigation efforts. This study influences the White House to issue guidance on social distancing, according to the White House coronavirus response coordinator, Deborah Birx. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

MARCH 16, 2020: The President announces “15 days to slow the spread”  Social Distancing Guidelines to be in place for two-weeks. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR. At the press conference, the president states, “My administration is recommending that all Americans, including the young and healthy, work to engage in schooling from home when possible. Avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 people. Avoid discretionary travel. And avoid eating and drinking at bars, restaurants and public food courts. If everyone makes … these critical changes and sacrifices now, we will rally together as one nation and we will defeat the virus. And we’re going to have a big celebration all together. With several weeks of focused action, we can turn the corner and turn it quickly.” Remarks by President Trump;  NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR.

 

MARCH 16, 2020: Death Toll: 87

Alarmed by the CDC sentinel study, six Bay Area counties in Northern California order residents to shelter in place. France on lockdown. Asked to evaluate his response on a 10-point scale Trump says: “I’d rate it a 10.” White House recommends against gatherings of more than 10 people, encourages work and school from home. Trump: “We’d much rather be ahead of the curve than behind it, and that’s what we are.” White House launches 15 Days to Slow the Spread. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 16, 2020:  The Washington Post led with, “How U.S. coronavirus testing stalled: Flawed tests, red tape and resistance to using the millions of tests produced by the WHO.”

The key stat-line in the piece was that “From mid-January until Feb. 28, fewer than 4,000 tests from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used out of more than 160,000 produced.”  The CDC had come up with a test quickly, by January 17, but “From there…U.S. efforts fell quickly behind, especially when compared with the efforts of the [World Health Organization], which has distributed more than 1 million tests to countries around the world based in part on the method developed by the German researchers….As early as Feb. 6, four weeks after the genome of the virus was published, the WHO had shipped 250,000 diagnostic tests to 70 laboratories around the world. “By comparison, the CDC at that time was shipping about 160,000 tests to labs across the nation — but then the manufacturing troubles were discovered, and most would be deemed unusable because they produced confusing results. Over the next three weeks, only about 200 of those tests sent to labs would be used.” RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 16, 2020: A total of 41,814 tests had been conducted in the U.S., according to The COVID Tracking Project. Factcheck.org April 2, 2020 by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

 

MARCH 17, 2020: Death Toll: 110

Trump: “I’ve always known this is a real…pandemic“

Testing lags persist: South Korea Testing: 274,000; U.S. testing: 25,000 Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 17, 2020:  Trump says at a coronavirus task force briefing: “We closed it down to China, the source, very, very early. Very, very early. Far earlier than even the great professionals wanted to do. And I think, in the end, that’s going to be — that will have saved a tremendous number of lives.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 17, 2020: The Trump administration announces strict southern border controls and President Trump falsely states that he felt like the crisis was a pandemic “long before it was called a pandemic.”  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 18, 2020:  President Trump signs an Executive Order  and announces he’ll be invoking the Defense Production Act “just in case we need it” but the president and vice president make statements suggesting the administration will not use the Act. He would later say he’s just using it for “leverage” and would be criticized for not using its full powers early on to compel production and distribute needed supplies.  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin; NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR; A timeline of the US Government response to the Coronavirus pandemic by Julio Marchi @MrMarchi.

 

MARCH 18, 2020: Death Toll: 150

Trump: “It snuck up on us.” Calls himself, “in a sense, a wartime president.” Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

MARCH 18, 2020: Trump tweets, “I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning, including my very early decision to close the ‘borders’ from China – against the wishes of almost all. Many lives were saved. The Fake News new narrative is disgraceful & false!”  He says his use of the phrase “Chinese virus” is “not racist at all.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 18, 2020:  Biden says  “Much has been made of changes in the President’s tone in recent days. But with our health care system at risk, a virus spreading, our economy on the brink — and so many lives at stake — it’s time to be less interested in the President’s words and more focused on his actions — or inaction. First, he must institute a transparent reporting process regarding testing… Second, President Trump must take action to expand the number of beds and facilities ready to accept sick patients…Third, President Trump must surge medical personnel to the places that need it most and make sure these personnel and first responders are equipped to more safely do their jobs.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden @procon_org.

MARCH 18, 2020: A survey conducted by Pew, a nonpartisan think tank, found Republicans and Republican leaners who only get news from outlets whose audiences align with them politically are more likely than Republicans with other media diets to think the media have greatly exaggerated the risks associated with the virus and to think COVID-19 was created intentionally in a lab. Close to two-thirds of Republicans who turn only to right-leaning-audience sources (63%) say the news media have greatly exaggerated the risks of the virus. That compares with 52% of Republicans who get news both from outlets whose audiences lean right politically and outlets whose audiences are mostly mixed or lean left and with 42% of Republicans who don’t turn to any outlets with right-leaning audiences. Americans Immersed in COVID-19 News by Amy Mitchell and J. Baxter Oliphant @asmitch @BaxterOliphant @PewResearch.

 

MARCH 19, 2020: California’s governor issues a stay-at-home order, the first such statewide order in the U.S. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

MARCH 19, 2020: President Trump states that the responsibility of supplying PPE to medical professionals lies with state governors, not the federal government. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 19, 2020:  Global Biodefense reports Senator Murray, ranking member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, has called for an investigation into the Trump Administration’s delays in developing and deploying testing for the novel coronavirus in a letter sent today to Christi Grimm, Principal Deputy Inspector General at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). @GlobalBioD.

 

MARCH 19, 2020: In a press briefing, Trump suggests the FDA has approved the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a COVID-19 treatment. (It hadn’t.) He says, “It’s shown very encouraging—very, very encouraging early results. And we’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately.” Also: “If things don’t go as planned, it’s not going to kill anybody.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 19, 2020:  Death Toll: 206

China announces zero new cases, a potential turning point in that country’s outbreak. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 20, 2020: To date, the U.S. had tested only 82,000 people (by comparison to 270,000 tested in South Korea, 1/6th America’s size). RAWSTORY, This stunningly detailed timeline of Trump’s failures shows America’s coronavirus crisis was a man-made disaster by Dan Benbow @RawStory.

 

MARCH 20, 2020: Death Toll: 255

Gov. Andrew Cuomo puts New York on “pause” with similar restrictions to California.

Trump era stock market gains wiped out. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 21, 2020: Death Toll: 301

HHS finally makes a large investment in protective equipment, with $173 million order for N95 masks. Rolling Stone Timeline: Coronavirus in America by Tim Dickinson @7im.

 

MARCH 21, 2020: Trump tweets, “HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 22, 2020: “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

— Trump tweet, after a Fox News opinion host used the same phrase on his show hours earlier. NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR @NPR.

 

MARCH 23, 2020: Hospitals report facing severe shortages of testing supplies, widespread shortages of PPE, difficulty maintaining adequate staff, and overall shortages of critical supplies. President Trump rebukes the Office of Inspector General’s findings as “Another Fake Dossier!” and questions whether they are politically motivated. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 23, 2020:  An Arizona man dies after intentionally ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a fish tank cleaner.  At a briefing, Trump says, “America will again and soon be open for business….Parts of our country are very lightly affected.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 23, 2020: Biden Speech on YouTube: “Our intelligence officials were warning of coronavirus threat in January. Just based on public information that I had, I warned the threat was getting worse way back on January the 27th…As of late yesterday, we’re told that the president still has not activated the authority under the Defense Production Act, which I and others call for him to invoke immediately and act on, to direct American manufacturers to make essential supplies.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden with Background and Context @procon_org.

 

MARCH 24, 2020: Trump says at Fox News virtual town hall without evidence: “I made a decision to close off to China. … Thousands and thousands of more people — probably tens of thousands would be dead right now if I didn’t make that decision.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 24, 2020: At a Fox News virtual town hall, Trump says, “I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”  Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 24, 2020: Trump and other administration officials tout a milestone in testing, saying by that day the U.S. will have done “more testing” in eight days than South Korea had done “in eight weeks.” But on a per-capita basis, the U.S. still lags behind South Korea, and other countries, as we explain. Factcheck.org April 2, 2020 by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 24, 2020: Conservative media became increasingly critical of major mainstream media outlets and their reporters throughout the coverage of the crisis. Conservative commentator Todd Starnes wrote that NBC’s Peter Alexander, whom he described as a propagandist, “got what was coming to him” after President Trump rebuked him for asking if he was giving Americans false hope. The Power Line blog claimed on March 24 that MSNBC and CNN have reduced covering the administration’s press conferences because they were showing the administration in a positive light. Predictably, both The Federalist and American Greatness accused the mainstream media of stoking public hysteria, which correctly characterized some of the reporting without acknowledging the widespread under-reaction from the right. How right-wing media is covering the COVID-19 epidemic in Columbia Journalism Review by Howard Polskin @howardpolskin @TheRighting who reads up to thirty conservative news websites every morning for his website TheRighting.

 

MARCH 25, 2020: Biden issues an Emergency Action Plan to Save the Economy: “In recent days, there’s been talk that we have to choose between public health and our economy. That’s not just a false choice. It’s a dangerous one. It would be catastrophic to reopen everything without a plan, and then have a spike in cases and shut it all back down. That would just mean more loss of life and economic pain. To reopen, public health experts say we need real testing capacity, the ability to trace contacts if someone tests positive, and the ability to surge equipment and supplies to any new hotspots.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden @procon_org.

 

MARCH 26, 2020: The United States has more reported coronavirus cases than any other country. Trump tells Hannity, “We’ve now established great testing….We’ve tested now more than anybody.”  At a press briefing, Trump says, “This was something that nobody has ever thought could happen to this country….Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 26, 2020:  Reports emerge that there are still not enough diagnostic tests. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 27, 2020: President Trump signs H.R. 748, the “Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security” (CARES) Act, a $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package.  Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin. Trump invokes the Defense Protection Act to get General Motors to make ventilators. At his daily briefing, Trump promises, “In the next 100 days, we will either make or get in some form over 100,000 additional units.” (HHS later says only about one-third of that number will be ready by June.)  Trump says governors “should be appreciative” of his administration and that he’s advised Pence not to call those who “don’t treat you right.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 27, 2020:  Using the powers of the Defense Production Act, Trump orders General Motors and a health care vendor to produce ventilators. Trump will also use the DPA for N95 respirator masks, and to ban exports of certain medical supplies and to prevent hoarding of supplies. (Source) NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR.

 

MARCH 27, 2020: Trump says, “When I took this over, it was an empty box. We didn’t have testing. We didn’t have anything. We had a broken system there. We had a broken system with stockpiling. We had a lot of broken systems. And I’m not just blaming President Obama. You go long before that. . . Nobody has done anything like we’ve been able to do. And everything I took over was a mess. It was a broken country in so many ways. In so many ways other than this. We had a bad testing system. We had a bad stockpile system. We had nothing in the stockpile system.” The New York Times 260,000 Words, Full of Self-Praise, From Trump on the Virus by Jeremy W. Peters, @jwpetersNYT Elaina Plott @elainaplott and Maggie Haberman @maggieNYT.

 

MARCH 27, 2020: Biden says “The coronavirus is not Donald Trump’s fault, but his inept response is. He ignored the warnings for months, downplayed the threat it posed, and failed to take the action needed to combat the outbreak. It’s one of the greatest failures of presidential leadership in our history.” Source: Joe Biden, Twitter.com, Mar. 27, 2020 ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden with Background and Context @procon_org.

 

MARCH 29, 2020: President Trump falsely claims that he inherited “obsolete” and “broken” tests from the Obama administration. Despite the virus being entirely novel as of late 2019, President Trump falsely claims that he inherited “obsolete” and “broken” coronavirus tests from the Obama administration. At the same time: The Trump administration resists nationalizing the supply chain for PPE, causing “bedlam” in the PPE market. Over the course of the prior week, on multiple occasions the president also tried to blame the Obama administration for leaving an “empty” stockpile, a statement that independent fact-checkers assess is false. And: The Trump administration announces that it is finally using the Defense Production Act for N95 masks and ventilators through presidential orders. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

MARCH 29, 2020: Dr. Tom Frieden, the former head of the CDC during the Obama administration, from 2009 to 2017, told USA Today that Trump’s claim about a “broken” testing system is “just wrong. They inherited the system that has worked in every prior emergency. Now, it’s fair to say this is an emergency like no other. But CDC tests were never supposed to meet the entire need for the United States.” Frieden said in a March 31 opinion piece for USA Today that in addition to the CDC’s flawed test kit being a problem, the FDA “was slow to allow hospital labs to develop their own tests” and the Department of Health and Human Services was also late in working with the private sector to develop widely distributed tests. Trump, however, has blamed “a testing situation that just wasn’t right,” as he said in the March 29 coronavirus task force briefing. “It was okay for very small cases, but it was obsolete and it was broken, and it was only good for a very small situation.” Former and current officials have explained that having the CDC distribute tests was only good for a relatively small situation, but that doesn’t mean the system was “obsolete” or “broken.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Spin on ‘Broken’ Testing April 2, 2020 by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

MARCH 30, 2020: On a conference call, governors tell Trump about their states’ need for more tests and equipment. Trump says, “I haven’t heard about testing in weeks. We’ve tested more now than any nation in the world….I haven’t heard about testing being a problem.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

MARCH 31, 2020: Coronavirus deaths in New York and New Jersey double in three days.  At a daily briefing, Trump warns of “a very, very painful two weeks” ahead.  Trump says, “I don’t think I would have done any better had I not been impeached, okay? And I think that’s a great tribute to something, maybe it’s a tribute to me, but I don’t think I would have acted any differently, or I don’t think I would have acted any faster.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 2, 2020: Presidential advisor Jared Kushner gives a White House briefing where he says “the notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile; it’s not supposed to be state stockpiles that they then use.” The next day, its website is changed to remove language about the stockpile’s role as a backup for states. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

APRIL 3, 2020: The HHS inspector general issues a new report based on a survey of hospitals from late March that says “severe shortages of testing supplies and extended waits for test results limited hospitals’ ability to monitor the health of patients and staff,” that “widespread shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) put staff and patients at risk,” and that hospitals “were not always able to maintain adequate staffing levels or to offer staff adequate support,” among other findings. The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

APRIL 5, 2020: Lack of widespread testing in the early weeks of the outbreak means the official U.S. death toll is an underestimation. The CDC count includes only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. The Washington Post What we know about delays in coronavirus testing April 18, 2020.

 

APRIL 6, 2020: Trump removes Glenn Fine, the independent watchdog overseeing $2 trillion in coronavirus spending. Governors complain that the White House is intercepting their orders for protective equipment and ventilators. Trump is “basically playing political games around life-or-death issues and leaving states to fend for themselves,” a Democratic consultant tells the New York Times. The US death toll passes 10,000. Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 7, 2020: President Trump removes Department of Defense inspector general who was in charge of overseeing the $2 trillion coronavirus relief package. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

APRIL 7, 2020: Trump says in a task force briefing: “And I was called all sorts of names when I closed it down to China. …. If I didn’t do it — if I didn’t do that, we would’ve had hundreds of thousands more people dying.” Factcheck.org Trump’s Snowballing China Travel Claim by Lori Robertson @factcheckdotorg.

 

APRIL 9, 2020: At his daily press briefing, Trump says, “We have a great testing system…the best testing system in the world.” He dismisses the need for nationwide testing: “Do you need it? No. Is it a nice thing to do? Yes. We’re talking 325 million people. That’s not going to happen, as you can imagine.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 9, 2020:  “SARS-CoV-2 came to the New York City area predominately via Europe through untracked transmissions,” says Viviana Simon, a microbiology and infectious diseases professor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in a press release on a new study she co-authored. The researchers say they conducted the first definitive molecular epidemiology study of SARS-CoV-2. “Only one of the cases studied was infected with a virus that was a clear candidate for introduction from Asia, and that virus is most closely related to viral isolates from Seattle, Washington. The study also suggests that the virus was likely circulating as early as late-January 2020 in the New York City area.” The Project On Government Oversight (POGO), The First 100 Days of the U.S. Government’s COVID-19 Response by Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.

 

APRIL 13, 2020: The Treasury Department orders that Trump’s name go on every stimulus check. A demonstration against shutdown measures outside the Ohio state capitol sets off a wave of protests organized by conservative groups with close ties to the White House. Trump blames delays in testing on the Obama administration: “What we inherited from the previous administration was totally broken, which somebody should eventually say. Not only were the cupboards bare, as I say, but we inherited broken testing.  Now we have great testing.” Asked about his conflicts with governors over when to reopen their states, Trump says, “When somebody is the President of the United States, the authority is total, and that’s the way it’s got to be.” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 16, 2020: Trump administration releases guidelines for “Reopening America Again,” advising states on phases to begin lifting social distancing restrictions. (Source) NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith. @tamarakeithNPR @NPR.

 

APRIL 16, 2020: Trump says in a task force briefing, “It’s going to be up to the governors. We’re going to work with them, we’re going to help them, but it’s going to be up to the governors. … I think you’re going to see quite a few states starting to open. And I call it a beautiful puzzle. You have 50 pieces, all very different, but when it’s all done, it’s a mosaic. When it’s all done, it’s going to be, I think, a very beautiful picture.” NPR Timeline: What Trump Has Said And Done About The Coronavirus April 21, 2020 by Tamara Keith @tamarakeithNPR  @NPR.

 

APRIL 17, 2020: As small groups of — sometimes armed — protesters demonstrating against shelter-in-place orders begin to receive media coverage, Trump calls on his supporters, including those who attended these protests, to “liberate” Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia, all of which have Democratic governors. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

APRIL 17, 2020: One policy group that has expressed skepticism about climate change, the Heartland Institute, pointed to a widely used projection of 60,000 deaths to attack earlier models predicting up to two million fatalities. The critique, posted on its website on April 17, ignored the fact that the lower estimate took into account social-distancing measures, and that the high estimate and others close to it were presented as worst-case scenarios if no steps were taken to mitigate the virus’s spread. (The 60,000-death projection was rendered null and void 13 days later, when the death toll surpassed that number.) The New York Times, The Fight Over Virus’ Death Toll Opens Grim New Front in Election Battle by Matthew Rosenberg @AllMattNYT and Jim Rutenberg @jimrutenberg.

 

APRIL 19, 2020: Biden says “No President can promise to prevent future outbreaks. But I can promise you that when I’m President, we will prepare better, respond better, and recover better. We’ll listen to the experts and heed their advice. And I will always tell you the truth.” Source: Joe Biden, Twitter.com, Apr. 19, 2020. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden with Background and Context @procon_org.

 

APRIL 21, 2020: The Trump Administration removes the Director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), Dr. Rick Bright, from his post. A day later, Dr. Bright, still a U.S. official, publicly states that he believes he was removed from his post because he “resisted efforts to fund potentially dangerous drugs promoted by those with political connections” (full statement). Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Response @just_security @rgoodlaw and @DaniSchulkin.

 

APRIL 21, 2020: Officials discovered earlier known U.S. coronavirus deaths in California.

Officials in Santa Clara County, Calif., announced that two residents there died of the coronavirus on Feb. 6 and Feb. 17, making them the earliest known victims of the pandemic in the United States. The new information, gained from autopsies of the residents, moved the timeline of the virus’s spread in country weeks earlier than previously understood. The New York Times, A Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic by Derrick Bryson Taylor @derrickbryson.

 

APRIL 22, 2020: Trump signs an executive order temporarily restricting some immigration to the United States. Dr. Rick Bright says he was removed as the head of the federal Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority after questioning efforts to push hydroxychloroquine. Trump tweets, “States are safely coming back. Our Country is starting to OPEN FOR BUSINESS again.” Yet at his daily press briefing, Trump says he disagrees “strongly” with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to allow certain businesses to reopen. Trump claims Redfield was “totally misquoted” by the Post; Redfield says he was “accurately quoted.”  Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 23, 2020:  At his daily briefing, Trump wonders if disinfectant can be used internally to kill the coronavirus: “Is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 23, 2020: Joe Biden Tweets: “UV light? Injecting disinfectant? Here’s an idea, Mr. President: more tests. Now. And protective equipment for actual medical professionals.” Source: Joe Biden, Twitter.com, Apr. 23, 2020. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden with Background and Context @procon_org.

 

APRIL 24, 2020: Biden says “I can’t believe I have to say this, but please don’t drink bleach.” ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden @procon_org.

 

APRIL 24, 2020: The US hits 50,000 reported Covid-19 deaths. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

APRIL 25, 2020: Trump tweets, “I never said the pandemic was a Hoax! Who would say such a thing?” He also tweets that daily press briefings are “Not worth the time & effort!” Mother Jones Trump’s 100 Days Of Deadly Coronavirus Denial by Dave Gilson, @daudig Laura Thompson, and Clara Jeffery @ClaraJeffery @motherjones.

 

APRIL 25, 2020: The US hits 1 million confirmed Covid-19 cases. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

APRIL 30, 2020: The Trump administration allows federal “Stay at Home” guidelines to expire, ceding the field to state efforts. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

APRIL 30, 2020: Biden says “More than 30 million Americans have now lost their jobs since this pandemic seized our nation… Millions upon millions of Americans are suffering economically, there are more than a million confirmed COVID-19 cases nationwide, and we have now lost more American lives to this virus in just a few weeks than we did in all 20 years of the Vietnam War. One of the hardest parts of this tragedy is knowing beyond a doubt that it didn’t have to be this way. The lack of preparation, the slow response on testing, the failure to administer the relief in the CARES Act appropriately — all of it stems from Donald Trump’s failures as president.” Source: Joe Biden, “Statement by Vice President Joe Biden on Today’s Unemployment Claims,” medium.com, Apr. 30, 2020. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden @procon_org.

APRIL 30, 2020: Biden Tweets:

“Donald Trump either read his daily briefings and ignored the warnings, or didn’t read them at all. Either way, it’s a complete and unjustifiable dereliction of duty.

 

– More than 60,000 people in the U.S. have died

– 30 million have filed for unemployment

– At least 1 million have gotten sick

 

Enough with the late night Twitter tantrums, Mr. President. It’s time for you to step up and lead.

 

We need more tests. Our front line workers need protective equipment. Americans need additional economic relief.

 

Yet the Trump Administration is spending time and energy on President Trump’s wasteful border wall.

 

Unbelievable.” Source: Joe Biden, Twitter.com, Apr. 30, 2020. ProCon.org Coronavirus: Timeline of Comments by Trump and Biden @procon_org.

 

MAY 3, 2020:  Trump again revises his estimate on the number of Covid-19 deaths the US will suffer and predicts 85,000 to 100,000 fatalities during a Fox News virtual town hall.

Look, we’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100 thousand people. That’s a horrible thing. We shouldn’t lose one person over this. This should have been stopped in China. It should have been stopped. But if we didn’t do it, the minimum we would have lost is a million-two, a million-four, a million-five. That’s the minimum. We would have lost probably higher than — it’s possible higher than 2.2. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 6, 2020: Trump suggest that the number of deaths from Covid-19 is overstated. Jonathan Swan and Sam Baker reported for Axios that “Trump has complained to advisers about the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower — and a number of his senior aides share this view, according to sources with direct knowledge.” They specifically reported concern about the CDC moving broadly to adopt New York’s method of classifying probable Covid-19 deaths as Covid-19 deaths. Then on May 13, Erin Banco and Asawin Suebsaeng reported that the White House, including Dr. Deborah Birx, is pressuring the CDC to exclude not only probable Covid-19 deaths but also the deaths of some people who have tested positive for the infection: The White House has pressed the CDC, in particular, to work with states to change how they count coronavirus deaths and report them back to the federal government, according to two officials with knowledge of those conversations. And Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the administration’s coronavirus task force, has urged CDC officials to exclude from coronavirus death-count reporting some of those individuals who either do not have confirmed lab results and are presumed positive or who have the virus and may not have died as a direct result of it, according to three senior administration officials. This stems from an idea, long simmering in virus-skeptical circles, that public health officials are improperly classifying people who died “with” coronavirus as having died “of” coronavirus instead. The basic thinking is that a large share of the dead are older, a large share of Covid-19 cases are mild, and consequently, older people with mild Covid-19 infections may be dying for unrelated reasons. It’s a fair hypothesis to offer, but empirically it seems to be false — many more people are dying than can be accounted for by the official statistics. Vox, Trump’s plan to limit the pandemic’s death toll: Undercount the numbers by Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias. And in a paper titled Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, published in JAMA,  Yale researchers concluded that official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states. The study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020. These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. The researchers concluded that there were approximately 122,300 excess deaths, but only 95,235 reported deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020 indicating that deaths from COVID-19 were undercounted by as much as 27,065. Weinberger DM, Chen J, Cohen T, et al. Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020. JAMA Intern Med. Published online July 01, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3391. Subsequent research has confirmed the conclusion that more people have died from Covid-19 than the official death statistics indicate. For example, on August 13, 2020, The New York Times reported that across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus. The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 by Denise Lu @DeniseDSLu.

 

MAY 7, 2020:  The US hits 75,000 reported Covid-19 deaths; the New York Times reports that the Trump administration elected to shelve detailed reopening guidelines from the CDC. Vox A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 10, 2020:  Trump again goes after the Obama administration’s response to the 2009 swine flu pandemic, falsely calling it a “disaster.” As the Washington Post has explained, “some flaws in the system were discovered” in the Obama administration’s handling of the H1N1 pandemic, “but overall the government was praised for its response.” Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 11, 2020:  Trump says that the US has “met the moment and we have prevailed” in responding to the coronavirus. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 11, 2020:  Of the many lies Trump and his defenders have spun, none is more flatly false than the claim, as stated by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in May, that the Obama administration “did not leave … any kind of game plan for something like this.” In response to McConnell’s claim, Ron Klain tweeted about the official pandemic playbook left for Obama’s successors. McConnell, surprisingly, retracted his statement—but the White House spokesperson, Kayleigh McEnany, then claimed that whatever “thin packet of paper” Obama had left was inferior to a replacement that the Trump administration had supposedly cooked up, but which has never been made public. The 69-page, single-spaced Obama-administration document is officially called “Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents” and is freely available online. It describes exactly what the Trump team was determined not to do. The Atlantic, The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything by James Fallows @JamesFallows.

 

MAY 15, 2020: President Trump, eager to reopen the economy, has begun questioning the official coronavirus death toll, suggesting the numbers, which have hobbled his approval ratings and harmed his re-election prospects, are inflated. Mr. Trump told reporters that he accepted the current death toll, but that the figures could be “lower than” the official count, which now totals nearly 95,000. Most statisticians and public health experts say he is wrong; the death toll is probably far higher than what is publicly known. People are dying at their houses and nursing homes without ever being tested, and deaths early this year were likely misidentified as influenza or described only as pneumonia. The New York Times, Trump Suggests Virus Death Count Is Inflated. Most Experts Doubt It by Noah Weiland, @noahweiland Maggie Haberman @maggieNYT and Abby Goodnough @abbygoodnough. Data on excess deaths in the United States over the past several months suggest that COVID-19 deaths are probably being undercounted rather than overcounted. Perhaps, the best clue as to whether COVID-19 deaths have been undercounted or overcounted is excess mortality data. Excess mortality is deaths above and beyond what would normally be expected in a given population in a given year. CDC data shows a spike of excess mortality in early 2020, adding up to tens of thousands of deaths. Scientific American How COVID-19 Deaths Are Counted by Stephanie Pappas @sipappas.

 

MAY 18, 2020: Trump tells reporters that he is taking hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug that has been linked to an increased risk of death when used to treat coronavirus patients. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 22, 2020: Trump at a press conference announces he is labeling churches as “essential” and calls for governors to allow their reopening, as well as threatening — without authority — to “override” any governors who fail to do so. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 23, 2020: For the first time since March, Trump hits the links at his own golf course in Sterling, Virginia, as the US death toll edges toward 100,000. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

MAY 27, 2020: The US hits 100,000 reported Covid-19 deaths. Vox, A detailed timeline of all the ways Trump failed to respond to the coronavirus by Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters.

 

JUNE 20, 2020: Trump said he ordered his administration to “slow down” coronavirus testing so that fewer cases of COVID-19 would be reported. “When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people, you’re going to find more cases,” he said at his first campaign rally in months, in Tulsa. “So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’ They test and they test.” In his speech, which drew far fewer people than the arena could hold, Trump also referred to the coronavirus as the “kung flu.” McSweeney’s, an independent nonprofit publishing company,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

 

JUNE 23, 2020: Trump aides said he was joking when he had told his administration to slow down coronavirus testing. But Trump said he was not being sarcastic. “I don’t kid,” he said. McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

 

JUNE 27, 2020: Reports emerged that staffers of Tulsa’s BOKCenter, which hosted Trump’s June 20th rally, affixed DO NOT SIT HERE, PLEASE! stickers to arena seats to create social distancing. Before the event, however, Trump’s campaign had thousands of the stickers removed. McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

 

JULY 4, 2020: COVID-19 killed nearly 130,000 Americans, but Trump, speaking at the White House, “maintained that 99 percent of coronavirus cases were totally harmless.” McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

 

JULY 5, 2020: Going against medical experts’ estimates, Trump boasted that the nation would probably have a coronavirus “solution long before the end of the year.” When pressed about Trump’s claim, Dr. Stephen Hahn, the Food and Drug Administration commissioner in charge of approving vaccines, said, “I can’t predict when a vaccine will be available.” Many experts have said a vaccine would not be available until at least mid-2021. McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

 

JULY 8, 2020: Rejecting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “very tough & expensive guidelines,” Trump said students should go back to school in the fall. If school districts didn’t obey him, he said, they could lose their federal funding. “In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS,” he wrote on Twitter. “The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!” McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

 

JULY 8, 2020: Trump’s June 20 indoor rally in Tulsa was likely to blame for a spike in COVID-19 cases in Tulsa County, a county health official said. A one-day record-high number of cases was reported in the county after the event. McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.

JULY 14, 2020: All data about patients with the coronavirus must be sent by hospitals to a central database in Washington, D.C., the Trump administration said. The order bypassed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and meant that information might not be accessible to the public. McSweeney’s,  Lest we Forget the Horrors: A Catalog of Trump’s Worst Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes by Ben Parker, Stephanie Steinbrecher, Kelsey Ronan, John Mcmurtrie, Sophia Durose, Rachel Villa, and Amy Sumerton.